New Hampshire – a cakewalk for Romney?

Famous last words I suppose but things are looking comfortable for Mitt Romney in today’s New Hampshire GOP primary – the most boring NH primary ever? (from the New Republic.)

Here’s the Washington Post on Romney’s achievments:

It is commonly argued that Mitt Romney has benefited from a weak Republican field, which is true. And that the attacks of his opponents have been late and diffuse. True, and true.But the political accomplishment of Willard Mitt Romney should not be underestimated. The moderate, technocratic former governor of a liberal state is poised to secure the nomination of the most monolithically conservative Republican Party of modern history.

Again from the New Republic:

…Tuesday, if the polls are to be believed, they are going to give Romney a pass, and send him on his way. What gives? The explanations are obvious. The field is weaker — there is no McCain, who had a singular bond with New Hampshire voters. Voters are especially focused on nominating the Republican who can defeat the loathed Obama. My personal theory, as readers know, is that Romney has simply worn the state’s voters down with his sheer persistence and doling out of campaign cash, all the way down the ladder to county sheriffs and district attorneys.

My tip Jon Huntsman seems to have skipped to South Carolina….from Newsday. Don’t think I’ll be staying up…..




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  • I think we cant say anything until there are at least ten states declared.
    And as Dick Morris said”you dont need to win Iowa but you need to win on Fux News”……he was speaking from the Fux News studios.

    And thats the key thing.
    Romney is not a true believer….in the O’Reilly, Hannity, Cavuto, Beck, Coulter mode. He is after all a Mormon which is a bit iffy in an un-American kinda way.
    He might believe in polygamy…unlike twice married Gingrich.
    Romney COULD beat the loathed Obama but that means that the true believers dont have a third candidate endorsed by Tea Party types.

  • From Day 1 this was Romney’s to lose. It was also Huntsman’s hail mary pass and it hasn’t connected at all; that guy is just way too sane for the Republicans to nominate in 2012.

    The interesting question is whether Gingrich can beat Santorum, reestablish himself as the standard bearer of the right, and then go on to win South Carolina and Florida. Otherwise, Romney will wrap up the nomination by the end of the month.

  • wild turkey

    a totally unscientific sample of friends back home indicates that Hunstman scored well against Romney in the Sunday debate,

    the important point to note is that in new hampshire, independent voters can in the republican primary. therefore the voter base is not confined to purist die-hards of the repuplican right/ tea party. hailing from a nearby new england state, i think i can say new hampshire people have a reputation for being contrary, unpredicatable and downright weird. anyway…

    romney will probably win but it is the margin of his victory which is important. LBJ beat Eugene McCarthy in the 68 NH primary but nonetheless was seen to be the loser due to his lack of a decisive margin.

    Prediction: Paul and Hunstman will be very close for a second place finish… a second point finish within less than 10 points of Romneys vote. Meanwhile, back at the White House i suspect they are eating lotsa of BigMacs while watching the republican primaries… and they’re luvin it.

    i can’t see romney beating obama. the man is equal parts standard issue american huckster and male version of the Stepford wives. he is merely repellant really.

  • Greenflag

    I see

    Bain Capital Romney’s former company may become the ‘bane ‘of Romney’s chances as primaries move on .

    Romney should come out of NH with a narrow win .His latest and unplanned for slip of the tongue in which he stated he enjoyed firing people has’nt helped .

    As the Wall St candidate he’s a loser anyway .Republicans know that -Christian conservatives in the South know it.

  • Many commentators expected Romney to sew up the Republican nomination today with a big win in New Hampshire. He will clearly win NH as he has devoted massive resources both money and manpower in the state particularly in the past year. It is a moderate state with many fewer social conservative that most states. He has worked the state since his last unsuccessful attempt in 2008 and has the support of virtually all leading Republicans in NH.
    Despite this recent polls show him getting around 33-35%.Ie almost two third of republican voters want someone else but cannot agree on a single candidate. Paul has hard core support in the high teens and the social conservatives are split between Gingrich and Santorum with Perry opting out and focussing on South Carolina.
    The interesting candidate is Jon Huntsman who has concentrated his campaign on NH. Like Romney he is in republican terms a moderate and in the past few months has more than doubled his support.He also does not have the baggage of being seen as the Wall Street candidate. Two recent polls show him with 16%.If this trend continues he could take a strong second place and seriously damage Romney. On the other hand he may have peaked like the others and fall back again.
    NH has a record of late movements in voting intentions and creating surprises. Romney can I believe wrap up the nomination if he polls 40% of the vote. However if he fails to do this the nomination will remain open as he moves to much less favourable territory in South Carolina and given the new means of allocating delegates on a proportional rather than winner takes all system.
    While Romney will win I still feel it is worth while staying up for the results.

  • Greenflag

    If Romney falls below 30% in New Hampshire and he might given the fallout from his recent ‘I like firing people ‘ comment and Gingrich’s accusation of the ‘looting ‘ of 1700 jobs by Bain Capital when Romney was at the helm and .

    It appears that Gingrich has no conception of what ‘financial capitalism ‘is and still believes that the main role for investors and capitalists is to ‘create ‘jobs . One supposes that Romney is at least the genuine ‘capitalist ‘beast not exactly a chainsaw Dunlop *the USA’s most famous downsizer or a Jack Welch destructivist but close enough to Wall St to be unelectable as President and yet some Republicans believe he has the best chance against Obama .

    And when one looks in any depth at the other candidates thats probably the truth . Still the owner of Israel’s biggest Daily Newspaper Sheldon Adelson a close friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has donated 5 million dollars to Gingrich’s Super Pac.He is worth more than $21 billion.

    Perhaps NH will surprise .I believe some 40% of those who will vote at this primary will be ‘democrat voters’ don’t ask me how this can happen but their vote will make a difference this time particularly if they plump for one candidate . Huntsman ?

  • keano10

    The Democrats are pretty bullish bearing in mind the state of the less than impressive group of Republican candidates. Polls put Romney on around 38% for NH. He is the best of a very poor bunch and his recent comments about his zeal for sacking employees has’nt did him any favours in these tough economic times for many Americans.

    His Mormon background is also an obstacle as 20% of citizens in a recent poll said that they would never elect a Mormon into The Whitehouse.

  • Saw a tweet from Ladbrokes claiming that odds on Huntsman were shortening dramatically. No idea if it’s based on real evidence, delusion or deliberate ramping, but thought it was worth reporting.

    I’d love it to be true, not least because it would prevent an early annointing of Romney as the candidate; but only Gingrich seems capable of tapping into the sort of cash needed to take on Romney, and he seriously needs to win in SC on Saturday week or its game over.

  • Dewi

    Pretty comfortable at around 40% for Romney with Paul beating Huntsman for second. All over?