#Aras11 Red C poll: Gallagher in pole position?

Tonight’s Red C result:

Gallagher 40 +1, Michael D Higgins 26 -1, Martin McGuinness 13, David Norris 10 +3, Gay Mitchell 6 -2, Dana 3 +1, Mary Davis 2 -1

It needs little commentary…

  • keano10

    The Sunday Times has McGuinness on 17% and much more interestingly that poll has Sinn Fein as the 2nd most popular party in the state for the first time on 19%.

    Looks like the Sinn Fein gamble may have paid off after all…

  • If we take an average of the two polls.
    Gallagher …39
    Higgins……..26
    McGuinness 17
    Norris………..8
    Mitchell………..7
    Dana …………2.5
    Davis………….2.5

    then with all the caveats, we can take out the bottom two…….and re-distribute maybe 4.
    that should add no more than 1 to Higgins.
    Mitchell going out leaves maybe 5 to play for. McGuinness will hardly benefit.
    Norris minimally.
    Higgns might break 3:1 ahead of Gallagher.

    Norris going out will put around 7 back in play again breaking mostly for Higgins.
    With three left in the race, it is unlikely that Higgins will have closed the gap. And that Gallagher will be about 4 to 5 ahead.
    (by the way please feel free to play with the figures and concoct a scenario of victory for your man or woman).

    McGuinness will go out on say 19. with maybe Gallagher leading Higgins by 5, 6 or 7. And not all SFs vote transferrable.
    It seems that theres no way that Higgins can win without taking the lions share of the SF transfers.

    The Republicans as Kingmakers, if you see what I mean.
    Not the scenario that Dublin 4 wants.
    Sinn Féins vote has a socialist component. And a nationalist component.
    And the weird thing about second preference votes is that they cannot (realistically) be mandated. The voters can be a contrary lot. And no Party ever really thanks another Party for getting that all important #2.

    Which means the Media this week……and liberal commentators might be just a little nicer to Mr McGuinness.
    McGuinness on these figures wont win.
    But either possible result will be a source of amusement in Connolly House.
    Of course Sinn Féin wont get any credit from its liberal enemies if Higgins wins on SFs coat tails.
    That result merely puts a wry smile on SF lips.
    But Dublin 4 choking on their breakfast muesli if SF “cost” Higgins the election……now thats a belly laugh.

  • Rory Carr

    A people yet in unholy thrall to the spell of mé féiner gombeenism if this poll holds any reliablity. Somehow I feel slightly ashamed to belong to a country that wallows in all that “cute hoorism”, that fly boy, Saturday night chat show host imagery that passes for respectability.

    Next thing you know we’ll be back to the slightly inebriated, expensively dressed, falsely smiling priest with the choir-boy good looks, like some desperate reprise of a Father Ted episode, raising indulgent nervous titters from a new generation of Celtic Tiger middle-class biddies in first decade designer dresses from their now depleted wardrobes, smiling their cosmetic smiles through lips of badly failing botox at his ever-so-mild risqué bon mots.

    Hasn’t anyone noticed that, apart from anything else, the man is as bald as a bandicoot, with a smile “like the silver plate on a coffin”* ?

    * Borrowing from Daniel o’Connell’s acidly accurate description of Robert Peel.

  • Alias

    There is likely to be more attacks on Gallagher next week but they will now backfire, leading to a double digit increase in support. The public have already made their minds up that Gallagher’s vision of an energetic, proactive, business-focused presidency is the one that they want.

    “Looks like the Sinn Fein gamble may have paid off after all…”

    It’ll be more than 4 years before another general election so good luck trying to freeze a whimsical variation in public mood for long enough to make any electoral gains out of it. When it comes down to it, only 13% want a Shinner about the place.

    The Shinners draw their support from a social underclass who contribute nothing to society but have a sense of entitlement that makes them feel that the rest of society is not contibuting enough to them. Parties that prosper through the support of an underclass have an incentive to expand its numbers and not reduce them. That self-interest dynamic holds true in Gerry Adams’ former constituency of West Belfast. That party is pure poison.

  • “I feel slightly ashamed to belong to a country that wallows in all that “cute hoorism””

    Rory, things could be worse – they could get Martin and his ‘comfort blanket’ protest:

    I will be an outspoken President. I will push the boundaries of the Office to their fullest and stand with the people and local communities.”

    Martin McGuinness said: “I will be an outspoken President. I will push the boundaries of the Office to their fullest with a clear mandate from the people.

    What a right muddle. Perhaps he put that together himself.

  • Rory Carr

    I see that Alias, with his scornful references to ein untermenschen, is not troubled by any sense of shame.

    This grotesque display of social Darwinism at its worst (and running dangerously close to Nazism) is an echo back to the late 19th century when men like railroad baron, George Baer, during a coal miner’s strike assured a clergyman worried for the miners’ welfare, that “the rights and interests of the labouring man will be protected and cared for…by the Christian men of property to whom God has given control of the property rights of the country.”

    When the pro-business New York times got wind of this even they felt he had gone too far and responded in an editorial: “A good many people think they superintend the earth but not many have the egregious vanity to describe themselves as managing directors.”

    Clearly, along with Baer, Alias is another such a one.

    Oh, and Baer’s comments ensured, for the first time ever, direct government intervention on the miners’ side. So, keep up the good work, Alias, we need such men of reaction as you to remind us of the changes that must be made if there is to be any chance of social progress in this century, to wrest control from those despoilers of all human industry, those profiteers who have no sense of value.

  • Well said Rory. I’m nauseated by the sheer stupidity of it all. http://anpucarbuile.blogspot.com/2011/10/i-read-news-today-oh-boy.html

  • Henry94

    If the polls are right then the ineptitude of the Higgins campaigin is responsible. The strategy of taking no chances and saying nothing while your buddies in the media unleashed a torrent of negativity against any perceived threat, was a failure.

    Gallagher offered positive reasons for voting for him. I thought they were inane and shallow but Higgins offered nothing except a sense of entitlement.

    Higgins and his media posse have three days. They need to forget about Gallagher and tell us why we should vote for Higgins. If they do that he might still win.

    The FF connection is not hurting Gallagher which is amazing but it didn’t damage McAleese’s popularity either so obviously the people take the constitution at its word on the non-party political nature of the office.

    Sinn Fein need to get the vote out. The 13% in one poll would be poor but the 17% in another would be a goid result.

    FG made a very bad choice in Gay Mitchell but I doubt many could have seen how bad a choice he would prove.

  • Alias

    Rory, that’s a rather histrionic example of a straw man argument. The term used was underclass, and not the term that you pompously and deceivingly substituted.

  • Mick Fealty

    Henry,

    My view of this race was that it was always worth entering precisely because the frontrunner was not so far in front he could not be caught. But labour have no more to throw at Michael D. As previously noted, their vote is maxed out. And the FF man is getting the popular vote.

    T’internet electorare may not like it, but a vast swathe of opinion of real Irish people think they know where they stand with Mr G.

  • Rory Carr

    Alias,

    I hardly require any lessons in pomposity from the leading cheerleader for the parasitical class which you continue to believe is the sole producer of wealth when in reality it remains its most non-productive, most unworthy beneficiary.

  • stewart1

    Interesting to see the differences between today’s Presidential poll and the party support poll in the Sunday Times.

    FG 37%(+1%) SF 19%(+2%) Lab 15%(+1%) FF 15% IND 13% GP 1%

  • Alias

    “I hardly require any lessons in pomposity from the leading cheerleader for the parasitical class which you continue to believe is the sole producer of wealth when in reality it remains its most non-productive, most unworthy beneficiary.”

    I’m not sure which class I’m supposed to be the leading advocate (much nicer word than cheerleader – and thank you for the ‘leading’ prefix) for when I’ve consistently pointed out that Ireland, under EU, is almost totally devoid of an indigenous wealth-creating class. That dismal situation won’t improve for at least two generations because the indigenous entrepreneurial class were buying and selling houses to each other rather than creating sustainable businesses. That EU-spawned practice wiped out another generation of entrepreneurs. In addition, the government converted hundreds of billions worth of eurosystem debt into sovereign debt as instructed by the EU, so any wealth that indigenous entrepreneurial class does manage to create in the next 50 or so years will all be exported for foreign lenders along with any wealth created by the 95% foreign-owned export businesses.

    That’s all great news for parties such as the Shinners that rely on the support of an underclass because that is the real growth area in Ireland, which has been sold into servitude by its eurogombeen political class. So the future is bright for the Shinners, and very bleak for everybody else. It just hasn’t kicked in yet because of amount of debt that the ECB is carrying. But give it 5 or 10 years, and you’ll find yourself as a Shinner cheerleader on the winning side.

  • Rory Carr

    Alias, the sector that you describe as the ‘wealth creating class’ are in fact no more than a parasitical group of profiteers on the only real wealth producing class – the very one that you disparage as an underclass, those whose labour of hand or brain produces the wealth the bulk of which is then taken from.

    I any case I see that, with your firm anti- EU stance, you will undoubtedly be voting at the next possible opportunity for the only viable anti-EU party. Who’d have thought it, Alias a Shinner?

  • Reader

    Rory Carr: the only real wealth producing class – the very one that you disparage as an underclass, those whose labour of hand or brain produces the wealth the bulk of which is then taken from.
    You appear to be confused between the workers and the underclass, probably because, these days, neither of them shares your hyper-acute political sensibilities.
    Here’s the distinction – the underclass doesn’t labour, and tend to switch off their higher mental faculties at around the age of 10. In contrast, the workers are potentially all that you might hope, except that they only retain their political purity so long as they wait and hope to be given a job. If they start a business and employ other workers, then they become “a parasitical group of profiteers” (apparently)