#Aras11: Michael D still attracting the smart money on Betfair…

Interesting to see in advance of any further polls that Sean Gallagher’s growth spurt has finished almost as soon as it began… Polls test public opinion, the bookies go for opinion on the final outcome… Betfair currently has the following odds:

That’s Higgins still as firm favourite 3/1 on, and Gallagher as decent outsider on 3/1 against… Martin McGuinness could be a very profitable outside bet at 28/1 (better odds than Paddy Power is offering at the moment)…

I’ve no benchmark figures to match the period the poll questions were being asked last week, which made Gallagher to be ahead of Higgins.. But both will be accruing direct support (and higher transfers) by dint of being identified as the last two standing…

Gallagher may be suffering a late pricing in of his Fianna Fail connections, and some less than convincing distancing strategies, but I would not yet discount his capacity to communicate

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  • Soldier

    ‘growth spurt has ended’? surely that does him no harm when the growth spurt took him up 18%?

    I don’t really know how to read the spread betting – is there any way to understand how many individuals have put on bets?

  • SimonLong

    Never mind the ‘smart money’. Where’s the Northern Bank money going ?

  • Mick Fealty

    Betfair is a betting exchange rather than spreads (which is too too complicated for my poor little brain)… May see if I can get some comment from a spread company though…

    The market contains £146k of matched bets.. 20k of which has gone on in the last few days…

  • Jimmy Sands

    Why have Ladbrokes suspended betting on Coco?

  • Soldier

    The reason I ask is that if the 20k comes from 2 or 3 donors we’re probably seeing Labour soft money (outside of SIPO regulations) being invested in ‘momentum’. If it’s 5,000 punters, it is a different matter altogether.

  • keano10

    Dana is 1/8 to be the first candidate to be eliminated. Her campaign has been truly bizarre, culminating in yesterday’s announcement that she felt she was the subject of an assasination attempt. It turned out that it was just a flat tyre.

    Im half expecting that David Icke is her campaign managing…

  • Republic of Connaught

    My fear about Michael D, and I don’t mean to be morbid, is whether he will see out a 7 year term. He is roughly the same age as whiskey nose Ferguson but looks ten years older.

  • HeinzGuderian

    ‘Stunning! I argued (without success) with many here earlier this week that Sinn Fein would nominate a Northerner but this is incredible stuff. They have saw a gap which could propel them straight into the hieraechy of Southern politics for a generation to come…’

    Some predictions are taken with a hefty pinch of salt,huh keano ? 😉

    Some of the ‘predictions’ when the former DFM was announced as a runner for The Aras,are well woth another read !!! 🙂

  • FuturePhysicist

    Yeah, I think a lot of Sinn Féin supporters know they wouldn’t put a single Eurocent on Martin to win the election even at 25-1.

  • Alias

    I think Gallagher will win it but I wouldn’t bet money on it. I sense that Gallagher’s focus on promoting indigenous entrepreneurial flair and his focus on expanding the role of the presidency in selling Ireland abroad, particularly in FDI, is just the right focus for a public mood that desperately wants to see the economy doing well again.

    Michael D Higgins is old hat in comparison, and seems to wants the office as the crowning achievement of a life mainly wasted in politics. The public aren’t in the mood to fund old traditions or what the political establishment – which the old ‘radical’ Michael D is really a part of – see as their just entitlement.

    The public want value for their money. Only Gallagher offers a potentially large ROI with a very worthwhile vison of the post-tiger economy might be developed included. Would we really send Michael D to bore the bosses at IBM or risk lectures about ethical capitalism?

    This new vison of an energetic, proactive, business-focused presidency is a winner, and I think, is now the deciding dynamic.

  • HeinzGuderian

    Green on Mary Davis ,Mick ?
    Only £3 down if the favourite or second favourite win though !

  • 241934 john brennan

    Boylesports is already paying out on bets placed on Higgins before Oct 20. – and currently offering odds of 1-3 on. Race over?

  • Henry94

    Gallagher 1/5, Higgins 7/2 after RedC poll shows the media’s negative line on Gallagher has had no impact on his support.

  • Three polls tomorrow. Newstalk has the figures.