#Aras11: Michael D still attracting the smart money on Betfair…

Interesting to see in advance of any further polls that Sean Gallagher’s growth spurt has finished almost as soon as it began… Polls test public opinion, the bookies go for opinion on the final outcome… Betfair currently has the following odds:

That’s Higgins still as firm favourite 3/1 on, and Gallagher as decent outsider on 3/1 against… Martin McGuinness could be a very profitable outside bet at 28/1 (better odds than Paddy Power is offering at the moment)…

I’ve no benchmark figures to match the period the poll questions were being asked last week, which made Gallagher to be ahead of Higgins.. But both will be accruing direct support (and higher transfers) by dint of being identified as the last two standing…

Gallagher may be suffering a late pricing in of his Fianna Fail connections, and some less than convincing distancing strategies, but I would not yet discount his capacity to communicate

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty