AV referendum- it’s all over (bar collecting the winnings)

According to the latest press-release from Paddy Power anyway:

(02 May 2011) Paddy Power have today paid out £15,000 to punters who backed next Thursday’s referendum on electoral reform to be rejected. The odds on a negative outcome tumbled from 10/11 at the end of February to 1/16 at the time of the bookies payout today.

Ken Robertson from Paddy Power said “From a betting point of view the writing has been on the wall for the A.V. issue for the past couple of weeks with 90% of all bets placed supporting the referendum to be rejected.”

Paddy is still  however offering odds on  voter turnout- 35.01% to 40% is the current favourite at 6/4.

  • Obelisk

    Personally i’m still planning on voting yes but like everyone else I pretty much expect a No Vote.

    Looks like the elections in Fermanagh South Tyrone are going to remain exciting for the foreseeable future (if the constituency remains relatively intact in the upcoming boundary review that is).

    I wonder if Paddy Power will be offering odds on how long Nick Clegg will survive once it becomes apparent to the Lib Dems they’ve sacrificed their party to the coalition and gotten nothing out of it except electoral meltdown.

  • £15,000 payout.
    If the payout was potentially £1 million they would not have been so quick to pay it.
    If we assume that most of the lucky punters got on the bet back in February or March when it was still near enough even money then if we assume the payout of £15,000 included stake money….there was probably less than £10,000 (allowing for the odds dropping actually invested).
    If we allow for thee fact that some bets might have been as high as say £100 (most wont of course) then the number of actual punters will be quite small.
    Which suggests apathy as lets face it……a bet of £50 at 10/11 on a No Vote is a near certainty.
    That suggests a turn out lower than 35%-40% but local elections and of course Scotland, Wales and North of Ireland will push the percentage upwards.

    But it will be interesting just how many people WANT the AV voting paper. I want to vote No, mostly to confound the great and the good. In fact Im insisting the rest of the family does….even if they dont care.
    But “political betting” is generally not profitable for bookies (although it was in the case of Dr Deeney which I never mention). It is a loss leader enabling them to get some publicity.
    And a word of caution. A few years back, Fred Done (sic) the Manchester bookie paid out early on a bet and it turned out it was premature…and to his immense credit of course he paid out on BOTH.
    Which of course did his reputation with punters a lot of good.
    Which is exactly the publicity he wanted then.
    And the publicity Paddy Power gets is well worth £15,000.

  • I am not surprised that Paddy Power has attempted to influence the outcome of the AV vote by paying out now to those who have bet on it being rejected. Quite simply Paddy Power were frit that the idea would spread to horse racing and other sports determined by a first past the post, or the height of a bar or a weight lifted.

    For example punters could express their preferences on a racecard and following the race itself, the second preferences of the horse that finished last could be redistributed, recurring, until one horse was seen as having collected the majority of preferences of the punters thus winning the race. In other words the race would not be over until the fat official sings. This would ensure a more even distribution of winnings and a fairer return to punters.

    Did Churchtown Boy not deserve his fifteen minutes of glory? Did Red Rum have to hog all the limelight? Did those Grand National fallers die in vain?

    Shame on you Paddy Power for standing in the way of progress. As we new Olympians say “Citius, Altius, Fortius, Maximus Denarius”

  • JH

    Paddy Power refunded my bet on McCloskey when they really didn’t have to

  • JH As a matter of interest what round did you back him to lose in? You surely didn’t back him to win?

  • JH

    I know I must have been an idiot to think the WBA would let the better fighter win

  • Point taken. But you do realise you can join the rest and set up your own World Boxing championship, just get some serious money together and offer a belt. How about the Real WBConfederation.

  • Alias

    Good. Now you’ll be spared awful aberrations such as the perpetually self-preening Mary Robinson who managed to be elected as Presisent of Ireland by the vagaries of AV despite the democratic handicap of receiving less first preference votes than her rival.

    In addition, Nick Clegg will now have to convince his supporters that coalition is still a worthwhile enterprise despite his failure to deliver the reform of the electoral system that he promised would be their reward for supporting the Tories. Coalition governments are inherently unstable entities, so let the fun begin…

  • That suggests a turn out lower than 35%-40% but local elections and of course Scotland, Wales and North of Ireland will push the percentage upwards

    The vast majority of the potential electorate are in England and the local government election turnout there hovers round about 35% (39% last time), so I’m betting on a 30-34%.

  • Ruairi Og

    1st time posting so apologies in advance for making a balls of it.

    Agree with FJH that this is a cheap publicity stunt, but no credit is due to the bookie for paying out twice if they get it wrong as they obv have honour valid winning bets (if not they could declare Stoke title winners now and save a fortune).

    Fred Done got his fingers burnt in 1998 when he paid out on Man Utd who were seemingly running away with the league, only for Arsenal to catch them from 12 points behind. It can’t have been too traumatic an experience as he’s already paid on on Utd to win this year’s much tighter league.

    Paddy Power paid out on Europe before a ball had been struck in teh last Ryder Cup, and got a level of publicity that they couldn’t have bought.

  • AGlassOfHine

    * Fred Done,to his immense credit,paying out twice…….
    Fact is he had no choice.
    No *immense credit* involved at all.
    He paid out early,as a publicity stunt,on Man U winning the Premiership.
    When they didn’t,what other choice had he than to pay out again ?

  • Yes……er thanks for reminding me of the exact circumstances in which Fred Done paid out the bet. 🙁
    But of course Fred Done is based in Manchester, is a “Red” and the bookie of choice to many other Reds.

  • Too many people here seem to wish bookies ill.
    It is of course about Publicity.
    Lets say that when Fred paid out he did so i good spirit……fact is not many of his clientele had actually backed on Arsenal when he closed the book.
    Fact is that bookies NEED winners almost as much as they need losers.
    Take a look at “Love on The Dole” the movie based on Walter Greenwoods book……set as in happens within a stones throw of Old Trafford. The (illegal) street bookie is actually a “friend” of the people and his flash car and clothes a reminder of the fact that he can afford to lose sometimes.
    Sam Grundy happily pays out a big gamble to young Harry in front of his Salford neighbours happy in the knowledge that it will all come back from gullible punters.
    Likewise Fred Done.
    Likewise Paddy Power.
    “the more things change…..” etc etc.

  • Valenciano

    “If we allow for thee fact that some bets might have been as high as say £100 (most wont of course) then the number of actual punters will be quite small.
    Which suggests apathy as lets face it……a bet of £50 at 10/11 on a No Vote is a near certainty.”

    =======================
    I got £300 on “no” in late February when the odds on both yes and no was 5/6. It has always surprised me that more people don’t bet on politics as opposed to throwing money away on unlikely multiples on sports teams. The odds on a Labour win in this weeks Leicester by-election for example are 1/100. Labour will lose in those circumstances (safe seat, unpopular government) less than one occasion in one hundred so it is almost free money (though unbackable at that price.) Compare the occasions in sports games when the odds are 1/100. Very often when a team is 2 goals up with 10 minutes left they’ll be 1/100 even though it’s not uncommon for teams to score two late goals.

    I’d expect that in Paddy Power’s case the amount of money that they’ll have to pay out in the event of “yes” winning is quite small and therefore well worth the publicity.

  • Absolutely.
    A financial investment which guaranteed a return of 10% would be considered good and political betting pays well……….but obviously if you pick the right result.
    But there are fewer variables with political betting and generally speaking more risk in football better (on which I have been known to bet) and even more risk in horses (which I wont touch at all) and even more in greyhounds (never ever bet on a dog in my life except on nights out in Edinburgh).
    Consequently with political betting odds are poor but I generally go for minimum trebles.
    Stick to three of four near certs and it should work out and avoid a punt on a long shot……well thats my theory.
    Memorably I have got it wrong (Dr Deeney).
    And close run things that perhaps luck rather than judgement persuaded me…….Naomi Long/Peter Robinson I could have gone either way and decided against including East Belfast.

  • Valenciano

    The problem with betting is that people do go for big payouts rather than a small but steady profit. The payout on the long shots and the football multiples may look lucrative but if they sat down and worked out the wins versus what they’d lost they’ll be down overall. Betting with heart rather than head is another profit killer, I knew Spurs fans who bet on their team overturning the four goal lead against Madrid in Europe “to keep the faith” when actually spending the cash on club merchandise would have helped their club a bit more than handing money to a bookie.

  • Cynic2