The Assembly Elections- what the bookies are saying

I know there are several Sluggerites who, like myself,  enjoy keeping the bookmakers in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed, so here’s the betting news for the Assembly Elections…

There isn’t any.

Or at least, not much. 

 It may well be that the prospect of a DUP/SF/UUP/SDLP/AP coalition replacing the present DUP/SF/UUP/SDLP/AP coalition is failing to ignite the market, but to date the big boys are not even bothering this time to issue odds, leaving us with A McClean to help us out with a few choice, or, even one may say, idiosyncratic offers. 

Overall, he’s presently looking at 33/34 Dupes, 7/8 Alliance, 28/29 Shinners, 17/18 UUP, 17/18 SDLP and 3-5ish others.

 As I said, idiosyncratic and when the bookies are starting to offer “idiosyncratic”, then you know it’s more than high time to have a word with our trusty mate, Mr Paypal. 

Individual constituencies are also presently  offering good value;  a prime example being North Down with a DUP 3/UUP 1/ All 1/Grn 1 at 4/1. 

I’m not sure if they’re trying an initial loss-leader set of odds (a favourite trick of Paddy Powers in political betting) to kick start things off,  but whatever, if you fancy making a few easy bob (heh! The Incorrigible Gambler’s favourite phrase) then I suggest you head over there quick before everyone else realises what’s going on. 

The O’Neill family’s house-keeping has just been put on an E. Belfast DUP 3/All 1/UUP 1/Ind 1 at 6/1 but Mick Fealty would probably like me to also mention at this juncture that Slugger will accept no responsibility for any dosh irresponsibily lost due to this post…

  • lamhdearg

    gambling, a capatalist sin.

  • PK

    Will there be anything for who tops the poll?

  • “he’s presently looking at 33/34 Dupes, 7/8 Alliance, 28/29 Shinners, 17/18 UUP, 17/18 SDLP and 3-5ish others”.

    ……Im not thinking about the bookies until the day before the election. My “Dr Deeney Fund” cash, will be invested (“gambled” is such an ugly word) in terms of constituencies.
    Picking number of seats won is just too much of a lottery.
    Btw the bookie in question seems to have thought that theres only five seats in North Down.

  • JH

    4/1 on PP for MMG to top the poll, worth a punt there 🙂

  • The Word

    What would be the odds on the SDLP getting 28 seats?

  • FJH,

    “Btw the bookie in question seems to have thought that theres only five seats in North Down”

    No, he wasn’t quite that idiosyncratic, now corrected!

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    The TUV are the dark horses in this race although they may have all the charactersitics of lame ducks.

    Can they possibly take 2 seats ? Have they any chance outside of NA?

    Robbo 1/7 to be first minister – I think he was 1/4 a few weeks ago.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/northern-irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=435110

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Cabrera is dangerous fecker – Tiger too far back unless Rory has a howler.

    …Monty is a boring bugger (Sky Sports) and he now looks remarkably like Sir Geoffrey Howe (him of dead sheep fame).

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    sorry wrong thread

  • I Bleed Orange

    “What would be the odds on the SDLP getting 28 seats?”

    Just can’t give it up can you Word?

  • Comrade Stalin

    Just can’t give it up can you Word?

    I don’t know why he’s asking us when he can appeal to a higher power.

  • “enjoy keeping the bookmakers in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed”

    I take my pleasure elsewhere :L

  • JH. I saw another bookies bet giving 1/7 for PR to remain FM and Marty at 4/1, but that was on a ‘politics.ie thread’ crosses himself], so it could be of dubious provenance

  • BokeSoup

    Any of this lot getting your vote?

  • aleks

    The 2007 election returned 3 others (Brian Wilson as a Green, Dr Deeny as himself and Dawn Purvis as PUP). The Good Doctor is not standing again, the Greens have changed candidates in N Down and Dawn Purvis is defending her seat as herself in N Belfast. I’d be interested to hear who A McClean (or anybody else) thinks the 3 to 5 others might be.

  • Kadfoomsa

    I see little change coming.

    Sinn Féin will struggle to expand in any direction and may loose some votes to dissidents.

    SDLP will drop slightly due to the Ritchie direction being very different from that desired by most nationalist.

    UUP will fall, but not collapse.

    Alliance will go nowhere.

    TUV might pick up a seat.

    The DUP might pick up an extra seat or two.

    That’s my take.

  • BokeSoup

    Anyone voting for Sammy?



  • dennis the menace

    Bit of a tangent, but do the UUP even know there is an election on? just been on their website and its remarkable there is no clear mention of it

  • PaddyReilly

    Kadfoomsa

    How many dissidents are standing for election?

  • PaddyReilly

    oneill

    Did you make any money on the Euros?

  • joeCanuck

    Doesn’t anyone carry out at least one opinion poll apart from internal party polling?

  • Paddy,

    I made a few bob on the Euros- de Brun, beating Dodds and coming in Number 1 and Jim Allister polling more than expected.

    Lost about the same amount on the General Election sad to say. I really thought there was a possibility of at least one Conservative and Unionist MP. Also had a small outside bet on Jim A again…

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    oneill,

    “Lost about the same amount on the General Election sad to say”

    me old betting mucker – I believe I was responsible for some of that?

    ps Which reminds me I owe £30 to Slugger.

  • Carsons Cat

    On the question of who the 3 or so “others” might be.

    Presumably they’re thinking that Purvis will get returned again in EB, and possibly that McClarty/McFarland can nick a UUP seat from them.

    They may also be labouring under some lunatic notion that Agnew will keep Brian Wilson’s seat in North Down.

    Purvis might get in, but I can’t help feeling that just not enough real people out there actually support her as some commentators like to think. Don’t know enough of the local geography, but McClarty possibly more likely to nick a “UUP” seat than McFarland and Agnew is gonna get walloped. (Wilson’s vote was an Alliance/personal one, not a green one).

    On that basis 2 is the max “others” I’d see returned, but most likely will be down to one.

    One potential “not named” from McLean’s could be North Antrim…. If the UUP vote doesn’t pick up much from last year and doesn’t transfer well between its two candidates then 4DUP, 1TUV and 1SF could be a possibility (albeit a bit slim I admit), which might be worth £20 at 10/1.

  • Sam Maguire

    I’m only after looking at the link – There’s at least 1 price on the McLean’s website I’ll be filling my boots with providing it’s still available

  • PaddyReilly

    Nearly half of Brian Wilson’s vote came from transfers, from all sides but particularly from the SDLP. If you were a SF or SDLP voter in North Down, where would you want your transfers to go? Some went to Alliance but a larger number went to the Greens. Much the same with PUP, Conservative, and all the mickey-mouse parties.

    Wilson (Green) finished in fourth place, not last. His successor can afford to slide a little before his seat is in danger. Plus we will see whether there is any truth in the report that appearing first on the ballot paper is advantageous.

    Why, I wonder, in the year of Fukushima, would there be a mass movement away from the Greens?

  • me old betting mucker – I believe I was responsible for some of that?

    Indeed, once bitten, twice shy;)

  • dup voter

    The Mccleans odds on the mid ulster forecast is like stealing money.5-1 3 SF, 1 DUP, SDLP and UUP