How do you solve a problem like Gerry, part 2

Gerry Adams jumped out of the frying pan of Morning Ireland into the fire at LM/FM. Adams’ follow-up performance on the local Louth/Meath station is so noteworthy that Fianna Fáil have actually issued it as a press release. Have a listen.

Adams on LM/FM

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  • Gerry Lvs castro

    This is a link to a John McBlain sketch surely? Some of his finest work….

  • Scáth Shéamais

    The LM/FM appearance was later than the Morning Ireland one Pete had posted earlier.

  • HeinzGuderian

    People of Oirland,I beseech you….PLEASE vote for this imbecile !!! PLEASE !!!!! 🙂

  • Planet Gerry.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Wow, that was bad, the really scarey bit is he actually seemed to believe what he was saying, like I you hear car crash interviews, but they usually are a result of them making it up as they go along and hav’nt a clue, but it sounded like he had “though it through” and believed it would work!

  • Comrade Stalin

    Gerry is half right. Why are we bailing out the bond holders ?

  • DR, that is SF economics at its best.

    Comrade, it might be possible to give Gerry the benefit of the doubt on one or two points if he had given any reason for us to believe through that interview that he understood a word he was saying.

  • Gerry Lvs castro

    Absolutely dreadful rambling — no-one in SF could possibly think that performance will enhance their electoral chances.

    Or perhaps the idea is to wheel Gerry out to absolutely ensure they DON’T get into govt this time, instead honing their skills in opposition while FG/Labour take all the flak.

    If this isn’t the case, they need to book Gerry on a six week cruise starting tomorrow.

  • FF have Adams on their website? That must be a first – sound like they are shitting themselves.

  • GoldenFleece

    Sure I believe that the people of West Belfast voted NOT to have an MP, no representation, so if Gerry clears off down south and there is not by-election….they got what they voted for.

    What’s the problem? One less MP on the taxpayer’s payroll.

  • cynic49

    Radio interview. Class act!!

  • redhugh78

    lol, the usual old anti SF drivelers.
    Can’t wait to see the ‘multiple’ threads when Gerry Adams romps home in Louth.

  • Brian

    He started out good but it quickly became apparent he had no clue what he was talking about.

  • Brian

    Wow totally embarassing. I just listened to the rest of that.

    I haven’t heard anything so bad in a long time, if I ever have. What the hell is he going on about it. Not only FF but all the parties should advertise this around.

    He literally has no idea what he is talking about. Absolutely no clue. I can’t believe he can be so idiotic.

    SF needs to keep him away from anyone capable of asking a logical question.

  • ForkHandles

    Does SF stand for Seriously Funny ? 🙂

  • Cynic2

    “Why are we bailing out the bond holders ?”

    Because if you don’t they will never lend you any more money. And you are bankrupt and desperate.

  • Cynic2

    “Can’t wait to see the ‘multiple’ threads when Gerry Adams romps home in Louth.”

    No doubt he will. With PR even fools and economic illiterates are entitled to representation and Gerry will fulfil that role very well.

    I also look forward to the impact his towering presence will have in the Dail. Best advert against SF its opponents could have.

    The phrase ‘past sell by date’ comes to mind

  • plainly speaking

    Quote of the day: “You don’t understand what I’m saying” (Gerry Adams)

    Quite apart from Adams non-existent grasp of the basic workings of finance, he manages to slip in a conundrum about creating a jobs stimulus package while taking an extra 1 billion from ‘those who can afford it’ – the sort of people I would call potential investors and wealth creators.

    Marxist lunacy at its finest.

  • 241934 john brennan

    How do you solve a problem like Gerry?
    Well the world is his oyster:
    Get elected TD – leader of SF in the Dail.
    Sign on at the House of Commons- leader of SF in Westminster
    Co-opt himself back into Stormont – As SF leader, nominate himself DFM.
    All before the end of February.
    “And still they gazed, and still the wonder grew ……………..”

  • Listened again, and again. Will incorporate this into a new media training package. Best ever on interview technique.

  • Drumlins Rock

    “FF have Adams on their website? That must be a first – sound like they are shitting themselves.”

    Ulick, do you not get it? for your opponents to publicise a complete interview by your party leader shows just how bad it was, only a complete car-crash would warrant that, must listen again!

  • stewart1

    five of the last nine threads about the bearded one!

    Slugger slips back into Adams obsession mode!

  • Sean Og

    This one is actually worth a thread of it’s own.

    Dreadfull stuff from Adams! It really does expose Sinn Fein’s economic policy but it won’t stop him being elected IMO. He may even top the poll.

  • Drumlins Rock

    possibly Stewart, but when it is served to you on a platter it is so easy to over indulge!

  • “Ulick, do you not get it?”

    Oh I get it okay, it’s all very clear.

    Roisin Shortall was reduced to screeching wreak on the Week in Politics on Sunday night by Martin Ferris. Mary Lou taking the legs from under Ruairi Quinn on Newtalk Monday evening. Sean Sherlock’s car crash next to Pearse Doherty on the FrontLine. Joan Burton’s meltdown on the Vincent Browne show on Monday night. Pearse Doherty taking out Pat Rabbite on the Pat Kenny radio show and again holding his own against the full panel and MO’C in PrimeTime last night. Throw into that Adams has been trending on Twitter for the past four days straight along with Doherty and Mary Lou and now multiple threads running on Slugger about Adams.

    Oh I get it okay. I can clearly see what’s going on.

  • Sean Og

    “Throw into that Adams has been trending on Twitter for the past four days straight along with Doherty and Mary Lou”

    What does this mean?

  • “What does this mean?”

    They’re being talked about? They’re the only politicians except Cowan who have been trending over the past 7 days. At the moment it’s all about SF and Twitter is reflecting that.

    For a very small Party that is a good start to the campaign. Adams has only turned his full attention to the South, what, two weeks ago? He can only improve his grasp in the detail over the next 30 days. The other Parties are obviously focusing on him as the weak spot to halt the SF momentum all the while keeping their own leaders hidden.

    It’s nothing that wasn’t expected so I wouldn’t expect to many Sinn Feiners are concerned about it at the moment. The next 30 days are going to be a lot rougher for them than the playground stuff we’ve seen so far.

  • Neil

    Suck it up Ulick, it’ll make the post election analysis much more enjoyable. Just like when the UCUNF failed to deliver the much vaunted and expected direct line to the PM and a role in national politics that so many posters enjoyed hypothesising about (you know who you are – you were amusingly wrong then, I expect the same again), the real pudding will be when all the anti Adams posts amount to SF breaking into politics in the south in a big way.

    For all the bullshit and politically motivated sniping (for you never see these same people criticising non shinners), there will be nowhere to hide when the results come in.

    Finally, I’d love it if people could see how stupid they sound criticising SF economics while defending the very people who’ve created the basketcase economy of Europe. Lets face it folks, the Shinners can’t possibly do any worse than those you seek to defend.

  • DidleeDOSquat

    ‘the fools. the fools they have left us our sovereign debt, Ireland bankrupt will never be at peace!’

    That help any Jarry?

  • Mick Fealty

    Boys,

    So it’s good to get talked about, but not good to have multiple threads on Slugger? Talk me through that one again?

    It’s a group blog, and people are entitled to blog what they see fit. Pete’s been on Gerry’s constitutional bind for a while now, and he got the Gerrynomics story too. But on Slugger Gerry’s obviously box office.

    I do think SF has both Labour and FF a little rattled. In the sense that they’d completely discounted them before the run in to the election. Kudos to Doherty for turning that over.

    It was his high court action and the subsequent bye election victory that foreshortened everyone else’s horizons. Only FG seems to be keeping it’s equilibrium. I would have thought though they would welcome SF’s sudden and unforeseen conversion to raw market economics.

    The long and the short of it is that Pearse is a winner. Ferris is a great deal more effective than his Dail boss. There is the added bonus that he’s likely to bring Toireasa in KS (though I’d be worried about how defensible a position that will be in any future election which saw FF resurgent).

    In short, although Gerry should win Louth at a canter, the party ought to be wary of using him nationally after what happened last time.

    Southern journos don’t know very much about Gerry Adams but they do know he knows nothing about economics, and they (along with FF) will exploit that ruthlessly every opportunity he gives them.

    My advice: Keep Gerry out; and put Pearse in for as long as you can.

  • Ulick & Neil,

    Whatever else happens with SF spokespeople besting their rivals or their rivals falling on their arses, you can’t say that Adams inspired much confidence with that interview can you?

    It seems to me that the only thing we know about how this election is likely to turn out is that we know very little. If FF do disintegrate (and it’s a big ‘if’) we don’t really know that will happen to those votes. If SF are playing a populist ‘hang the bankers’ line and think that crude economics will not be an issue, then it’s quite a big gamble.

    There’s a huge amount hanging on this one for SF isn’t there? Surely this is a now-or-never moment for the breakthrough in the south?

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    “the party ought to be wary of using him nationally after what happened last time.”

    I believe that “last time” you declared that he won the debate. Ah, the sweet smell of revisionism.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Mick, do you think Gerry will play along with that though? I would not like to be the man to tell him he is a liability, he has made the decision to jump south and fully intends to be the face of SF there I am sure, he cant play second fiddle.

  • DC

    He literally has no idea what he is talking about. Absolutely no clue. I can’t believe he can be so idiotic.

    Just like the electorate then. It might just work – keep at it Gerry!

  • Mick Fealty

    A fact I have admitted on more than several occasions since. I think you’ll find I took my medicine on Politics.ie as well as here.

    I thought he’d done enough by sticking to values and keeping away from specifics. It seems that whilst that works very well in the north, it doesn’t in the south.

    Pearse has the advantage over Gerry (as noted above), in that the media don’t know how to deal with him. Give him his head.

  • plainly speaking

    Ulick says of Adams ‘He can only improve his grasp in the detail over the next 30 days.’

    Good God man, he’s had 4 years since he was last made to look like a wee boy on economics for grown-ups. In 30 days, I doubt he’ll even come to grips with the difference between a deficit and a bailout.

  • Neil

    Of all the threads they’re about 50:50 Gerry’s resignation:Gerry’s incomrehension of economics. Taking them seperately we have the Unionist wet dream of having Gerry/SF/Republicanism dancing to the Windsor’s tune despite the fact that there’s damn all chance of that happening. It’s fun for the anti shinner brigade and that’s it. To the people who matter to SF, i.e. Republican voters, we don’t care.

    So for the anti shinner brigade they can hypothesise about their ideal solution to the this ‘issue’ which will obviously have Gerry deferently accepting a role from the Queen of England, whereas the reality is that he’s handed in his resignation, Blair changed the law so Gerry can legally be an MP and a TD at the same time, so for Adams and SF it’s a total non issue. They can ignore it and expect Westminster to come up with a solution. Either way it’s an ideological wank, anti Shinner types sitting round fantisising over the thought of Gerry being forced to accept the Queen, Britishness and the rest. Not going to happen.

    On the economics issue there are two points. I’m certain there are many, many political leaders (including at least one PM) who never made it further than 5 GCSEs, yet rose to lead the country. Is Gerry saying that he won’t have ministers working on economics and the rest? Is he saying that he intends to do every single job in the government, or do you think he’ll have advisors, ministers etc. on hand to do various jobs?

    Of course he will. No one political leader is expected to perform each and every function of government. Hence thickos like John Major reaching the highest office in the land. So in essence, if Gerry is economically illiterate – if – that’s never been a bar from any other politician being a minister.

    It’s back to the original point that for some of our anoraks here, any perceived weakness of any kind will be ceased upon and used as an excuse why he should never be allowed to be a minister – when you can be damned certain that there are other ministers in the Dail who cannot add, spell or speak particularly well.

    Second to that, Gerry got crucified for his performance, economically in the last election. But in hindsight the fact is that he was correct in what he said, that much has been admitted by other politicians and journos in the south. And the people who supposedly beat him in that debate are the very people who’ve created the current Irish economic situation.

    I ask you, objectively if you possibly can: would you rather vote for a confident and articulate master of the universe who had overseen the complete destruction of the Irish economy? Or the other guy who was right at the last election but the greedy didn’t want to hear it? Personally I’d go with the guy who so far hasn’t devastated the Irish economy to the point the South is at now. No doubt for the anti SF brigade they’d rather have the Bankers in charge of Ireland.

  • Neil

    Good God man, he’s had 4 years since he was last made to look like a wee boy on economics for grown-ups.

    Provide a quote from that interview where Adams hasn’t been proven, in hindsight, to be 100% correct.

  • Munsterview

    Mick: “The long and the short of it is that Pearse is a winner. Ferris is a great deal more effective than his Dail boss. There is the added bonus that he’s likely to bring Toireasa in KS (though I’d be worried about how defensible a position that will be in any future election which saw FF resurgent)……”

    I want to take issue with you on Toireasa Ferris, she may have starter in politics as her fathers’s daughter but she has more than proven herself in Kerry Co.Council. At this stage she has done enough heavy lifting on her own to prove her worth. She would also get more than a few votes from youth and female groups that Martin would not necessarly reach.

    For the record, FF did not learn from their Healy Rea foot shooting epesode in South Kerry. This time the Donoghue camp managed to keep Tom Fleming off the ticket and even when he ran in the past the FF votes did not add up, FF transfers went to Jackie to shaft him. This time the shoe is on the other foot and there will be a Michael Realy Rae / Tom Fleming transfer pact, in Tom’s Area both camps are cut from the same cloth.

    As for Jackie being some operater, if Michael has voting influnce look out for the Dail transferred to the Conference Center in Killarney for a month every year and the Sheen Falls hotel purchased by the State to base the Senate permanently in Kenmare !

  • Mick Fealty

    Fair comment MV. I hadn’t meant to downgrade her efforts. Her last run out in Munster in the EP elections proved that point. Another top runner in SF’s southern future, without a doubt.

    Neil, one short comment on the Gerry’s retirement as MP. SF made it a story. Crick was on to it in December, and the party has been in denial ever since (running to a number of false briefings of the press in the process).

    I said then it was trivial, and it still is. The party’s own scruples made it a fun issue for everyone else. They should have sucked it up and got on with it at the time.

  • Neil,

    I’m not sure that this ‘anti-shinner brigade’ schtick makes sense. Politics isn’t All About You or All About SF. I’d agree that this site has plenty of readers who have a particular personal obsession with SF and it’s individual leadership people (all of this boring kremlinology about how he stops being an MP is a case in point) but there are substantial questions here, and ones that are going to be difficult to duck.

    You say that Gerry Was Right last time. Sure – he adopted one of the 359 other points of the economic compass to the hegemonic one, but that’s not the same as Being Right. He did it from the viewpoint of being a political outsider – mainstream politics all over Europe was full of politicians who didn’t buy the whole weightless economy story, but most of them felt constrained by the need to shoehorn it into something that wasn’t electoral suicide for existing parties.

    He didn’t convince many people (including a large slice of his own backyard) then, and I doubt if you’d convince many people that Ireland now that they would have been OK if only Everyone Had Listened To Gerry.

    It’s going to be interesting to see how this (unchartered) election works, but I doubt that a party led by someone who gave that performance will get very far – John Major (for all of his lack of O’Levels) would never have let himself get pulled to bits in that way. We’ll see.

    You seem to be suggesting that SF operate some kind of collegiate structure where the presentational shortcomings of one spokesperson don’t need to damn the whole party. There are parties that this applies to, but SF is firmly not one of them.

    SF are a party that are primarily about one issue. That issue shapes their policies on everything and robs them of their pragmatism, and their rigid disciplined structure also robs them of their ability to adapt.

    Maybe this *is* the breakthrough moment for such a party – who knows! But if it isn’t, SF will learn that other parties don’t choose their modus operandi by accident – they do it because it works. Such a change would be a massive one for SF after having failed in a now-or-never election.

  • Gerry Lvs castro

    ‘Is Gerry saying that he won’t have ministers working on economics and the rest?’

    Neil your argument is the equivalent of bumbling into a job interview with the message ‘I don’t have the first clue but I’m sure I’ll pick it up as I go along and sure there’ll be lads there to keep me right.’ Not exactly inspirational.

    Gerry’s problem appears to be that he’s spent his life preaching to the fanbase and is genuinely bewildered that everyone isn’t falling at his feet.
    Right from the get-go he was whinging about an ‘anti SF hack.’ How troublesome Gerry, it’s called a free press.

    It was downhill from there. If he’d announced that he’d just done the nation’s costings on the back of a fag packet and it looked OK he couldn’t have sounded any more clueless.

    Basically you’re saying we should give Gerry & the lads a go because they couldn’t do any worse than the last lot. I daresay if Lord Sutch or the Natural Law Party were still around they could claim the same. Not exactly inspiring is it?

    I’d be the first to admit that Pearse Doherty is impressive and that the party do have some talent. So why oh why do they wheel uncle doofus out to make an exhibition of himself on the national airwaves? Paisley became an embaressing loose cannon who the DUP wisely put out to grass — maybe there’s a lesson there.

  • stewart1

    I think Slugger should rebrand as the link below, seeing as the Adams obsession is reaching worrying proportions 🙂

    http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/9850/66134619.png

  • Mack

    @Mick

    I would have thought though they would welcome SF’s sudden and unforeseen conversion to raw market economics.

    There hasn’t been any conversion to raw market economics though. Listening to the interview the policy appears to be burn the bond holders and nationalise the banks, which would then be instructed to provide credit to favoured clientist projects (small businesses or whatever).

    The other issue is that the policy taken as a whole is complete fantasy. There is absolutely no wriggle room at all for the risk that the state won’t be able to borrow to fund the deficit on the open market after defaulting on state guaranteed debt.

    The claim that their €4.5bn in tax rises has been costed means nothing except that the tax rises do indeed at up to €4.5bn (if we’re giving out gold stars for basic addition – well done). It’s meaningful to SF only because they didn’t cost proposals in the past. To the rest of us those sums are meaningless.

    In that interview Gerry Adams refused to state how the €14.5 billion deficit would be funded for 6 years. He ended the interview by telling the interviewer he didn’t know what he (the interviewer) was talking about.

    Some of us have been banging on about the implications of unilateral default on Slugger for some time. SFer’s complaining that there is some conspiracy are missing the point. There may well be an anti-SF bias, but that doesn’t mean their policy is internal consistent and sound. It isn’t.

    The core idea of defaulting on the bank debt is a valid one, but until SF are honest with people about what that implies (hint – it will be painful, but potentailly less painful long term than a long slow strangulation). SF spokes people will continue to get whipped when confronted directly on their policies..

  • Neil

    Neil your argument is the equivalent of bumbling into a job interview with the message ‘I don’t have the first clue but I’m sure I’ll pick it up as I go along and sure there’ll be lads there to keep me right.’ Not exactly inspirational.

    Not at all. It’s the equivalent of going for a job as a baker and being quizzed on your abilities as a butcher because there’s one in the same supermarket. Does one person have to be a whizz at all jobs to be functional?

    I’m not saying Adams is an economic illiterate – that title would be more my own – however the common perception I’ve picked up is that the ROI’s economic situation and bailout plans are unsustainable. Any attempts to go with the plan in place at the minute will eventually fail. So why bother in the first place. With inevitable failure and a price tag attached of billions, plan B might not be such a bad idea. Don’t expect to hear that from Cowen (or any of his golf buddies).

    If Ireland defaulted tomorrow, or as Iceland did, say to the banks ‘they’re your debts, you deal with ’em’ what would happen? We don’t know. We know Iceland is out of the woods, it’s recession is now over. We know that other countries have defaulted on their debts in the past decade and are now flying high again. We know that the current bailout won’t work as it puts the debt of bankers on the heads of normal people.

    Anyway, as Adams economic credentials are being lambasted yet again, in favour of the economic genuises that decided that millionaire bankers shouldn’t have to cover their own losses and that should be put on the shoulders of the poor instead, all I’m saying is that no leader/PM/TD needs to be able to handle every department himself – it would be insanity to try. Adams can give a broad brush idea of his economic plans because he’s not chancellor, shadow chancellor or anything else.

    We don’t attack Vince Cable because of his lack of ideas about the Health Service in England. That’s because it’s not his department, much in the same way Gerry’s not in charge of the budget in ROI. He’s going for TD in Louth and that should be where the attention is at, but that won’t happen as the journos in the south and their paymasters in the government hate SF, always have, and they’re terrified of them now too. They’ve done their best to keep SF down and they’ve done well up to now, but at the present time they see them on the rise and they are shitting their pants.

  • Gerry Lvs castro

    ‘all I’m saying is that no leader/PM/TD needs to be able to handle every department himself’

    Point taken but if Gerry is so obviously clueless on the economy, why on earth wheel him on for a testing interview? It smacks of either having no-one else capable enough or some kind of egocentric notion that Gerry can bluff his way simply because he IS Gerry.

    You correctly point out that he’s going for TD in Louth which I’d happily bet the farm he’ll take with ease (as would any SF member), but his reason for doing so appears to be as some kind of saviour of the economy. In which case actually knowing his facts, putting forward a convincing argument and not sounding like a schoolboy might all be good ideas.

    I’m from the north, I’ve heard and seen Gerry working the media with ease. What I heard yesterday was a petulant has-been way out of his depth and above all a liability.

    SF are battling not only to be taken seriously on the economy, but against southern perceptions that they are a northern centric one issue party and a party with a very dark, very violent and very recent past.

    If they are to move beyond a protest vote and their core base, it’s imperative that they demonstrate knowledge and capability on the question that every voter has uppermost in their minds. Muddling through won’t do.

  • vanhelsing

    Neil – “If Ireland defaulted tomorrow, or as Iceland did, say to the banks ‘they’re your debts, you deal with ‘em’ what would happen? We don’t know”

    Perhaps with that understanding of monetary policy you should be briefing Gerry [maybe you are] 🙂

    The following is an except from the Telegraph although it also ignores three other massive considerations:

    a. ROIs membership of the EMU

    b. Ripple effect of default to other Euro countries

    c. Enormous euro currency stability issues following default

    I’d love to see someone pitch Gerry’s ideas to Brussels and see the response they’d get.

    I sincerely hope that the Republic does get sorted and the pain ends quickly – Gerry and SF are clearly not the solution IMHO.

    “Comparisons between the Irish and Icelandic banks must be handled with care. Iceland is tiny. It could walk away from liabilities equal to 900pc of GDP without causing a global systemic crisis.

    Ireland is 12 times bigger. The balance sheets of Irish banks are $1.3 trillion (£822bn). The interlocking ties with German, Dutch, Belgian, and British banks create a nexus of vulnerability. Bondholder defaults would risk contagion to Spain and Portugal, where the banks rely heavily on foreign capital markets” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8187476/Iceland-offers-risky-temptation-for-Ireland-as-recession-ends.html

  • Neil

    Neil – “If Ireland defaulted tomorrow, or as Iceland did, say to the banks ‘they’re your debts, you deal with ‘em’ what would happen? We don’t know”

    Perhaps with that understanding of monetary policy you should be briefing Gerry [maybe you are]

    Well, we don’t know, do we?

    “Comparisons between the Irish and Icelandic banks must be handled with care. Iceland is tiny. It could walk away from liabilities equal to 900pc of GDP without causing a global systemic crisis.

    Ireland is 12 times bigger. The balance sheets of Irish banks are $1.3 trillion (£822bn). The interlocking ties with German, Dutch, Belgian, and British banks create a nexus of vulnerability. Bondholder defaults would risk contagion to Spain and Portugal, where the banks rely heavily on foreign capital markets”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring

    How about Argentina then? They defaulted, borrowed off the IMF and are in a fairly healthy position today. Also, intrinsic in the Tele article is the fact that to default Ireland would need out of the Euro. This is the only way they can control the value of their currency/debt. Again I say, I know nothin of economics, but I know that if the end of the road for Ireland is default anyway, then now would be the time to do it, instead of forking out billions of taxpayer money and defaulting five or ten years down the line.

  • Mack

    @Neil

    How about Argentina then?

    They went through *severe* immediate pain to get back on a growth path. They were & are shut out of global debt markets.

    What’s inconsistent (and pure fantasy) is the argument that the approach to the fiscal crisis can be softened while Ireland unilaterally defaults on guaranteed bank debts.

    By the way, I think this has to do with policy not personalities. When SF are allowed to attack they do well, but when the focus is on them, as it is when the leader is interviewed they crumbled because the policies are inherently conflicted.

  • Neil

    They went through *severe* immediate pain to get back on a growth path.

    Whereas it seems Ireland is expected to go through immediate and protracted pain, with no gaurantee that this will lead the country back to growth.

    It’s also worth noting that according to various news reports approximately 50% of the voting public don’t agree with the bailout plan either. SF will be aiming to use that politically.

  • Mack

    @Neil

    Whereas it seems Ireland is expected to go through immediate and protracted pain

    It’s difficult to project a sense of scale in text. But the expectation would be of much smaller annual contractions and debt suffocation for the next 5 or 10 or even 20 or more years versus a much steeper and painful correction now followed by a return to growth from low debt levels.

    There is a choice to be made, especially if negotiation efforts fail about whether it is better to take the pain now (like the Asian countries did in the late 1990’s) or to lumber onwards like Japan has since the late 1980’s.

    Anyone saying with certainty the bailout is going to lead to a bright future is being dishonest. Anyone saying with certainty that you can unilaterally default on state guaranteed debt *and* soften the blows of the fiscal adjustment is also being dishonest.

  • Seamus Clarke

    Sounded better than Mackers at the debate in Queens last month. Even the dissies thought he was terrible.

  • vanhelsing

    Neil my issue is more to do with the ROI’s inter-connecting ties with the EMU. Greece looked at defaulting and going back to the Drachma – the effect of this would be massive deflation of currency whilst debts would remain at ‘old’ Euro levels.

    Calculations suggested an overall increase of 40% on cost of debt.

    I hope the ROI doesn’t default as the consequences economically with be massive for it and like all decent Unionists in Northern Ireland I take no pleasure in saying that.

  • plainly speaking

    Provide a quote from that interview where Adams hasn’t been proven, in hindsight, to be 100% correct.

    You may have missed the 2007 wee four debate – are we meant to believe that in addition to posturing as economically savvy, Adams also prophesying?

    Sure there are plenty of politicians who have not mastered every detail of every brief. They usually have people to do the hard stuff. The difference with Adams is that he puts himself forward as the Shinners oracle on matters clearly beyond his intelligence – things like, what is the current rate of VAT in the Republic.

    I wouldn’t put it past him to be doing the feckless imbecile on purpose – he’s probably calculated it’s a vote winning strategy.

  • Dixie Elliott

    Carpetbagger

    1.A Northerner who went to the South after the Civil War for political or financial advantage.

    2.An outsider, especially a politician, who presumptuously seeks a position or success in a new locality…..

    Talking about carpetbaggers, his supporters and the people of West Belfast should be asking why is he suddenly jumping ship to move to what is likely a safe seat in the South?

    Going down there because the economy is in a bad state while abandoning the most deprived area in the North is a ludicrous excuse for carpetbagging.

    It conjures up a picture of Del Boy and Rodney’s Batman and Robin rushing to the rescue.

  • joeCanuck

    Yes, Dixie.
    On the doorstep: Dia duit. I’m Gerry Adams. I’ve come down from Belfast to solve Ireland’s economic problems. Can I count on your vote?

  • Brian

    Here is a good article on similarities and differences between Ireland and Iceland, and what happened in Iceland after the default.

    http://www.economist.com/node/17732935?story_id=17732935

    For what it’s worth Neil and whomever else, I am not anti-SF. I was hoping they would do well if for nothing else than to shake up the Dail entirely.

    But regardless of one’s view this interview was ghastly. No one is suggesting Gerry should be an expert economist…but it sounds like he didn’t know the difference between the deficit and the debt, let alone have a basic understanding as what Ireland would face if they followed SF’s plan. On top of that he tried to turn it around on the journalist and pretend that it was he, not him, who had no idea what he was talking about. (I couldn’t tell if Adams really thought he had things right or if he was doing his best to bluff his way through the interview).

    That may work with voters who don’t know the first thing about the Irish economic crisis other than social services will be slashed but to any half educated observer it is unsettling of a leading politician to be so unversed, ignorant, and out of touch on the most pressing issue this country has faced in decades.

    All the same, however, the majority of voters will never visit a political parties website or watch more than a few minutes of politicians debate each other or do interviews….so it won’t matter all that much. In times of hardship, populist cries (however illogical or rational) sound appealing to many ears.

  • Seems Sinn Féin have got a high profile endorsement:

  • Mack

    @Ulick

    Adams actually sounded McWilliams on occasion. The only problem with the argument being propounded is that it is being presented as and easy and painless alternative. I.e. we can sort the banks out by forcing the bond holders to take the losses (without surrendering an equity stake in the banks – or a claim on the assets of the banks, or retaliation from Europe) and we can at the same time reduce the scale of the annual austerity measures (again without Europeans support when the markets are charging us almost double the EFSF/IMF interest rate – prior to any default).

    If SF were totally honest about the implications of the risks / uncertainties associated with their policies they’d be in a very strong position economically.

    I don’t want my taxes to repay money leant to Fingers and Seanie Fitz. The German, British, French, Belgian & Dutch banks leant it to them, they can get it back of them, not from taxing yours, mine and our children’s future incomes..

  • Mack

    Further to the above.

    Gerry Adams was asked where the other €14bn to make up the short fall in spending after taxes and the SF tax rises had been taken into account would come from. He repeatedly avoid answering it. That might work well in elections to nothing in particular in the politically dysfunctional north, but it really is insulting to voters here, where he presumably hopes to take executive office and make decisions crucial importance to all our futures. We need to hear answers to these questions when they are asked..

    How hard would it have been to come clean and say something like by

    ‘separating private and public debt we’d hope to be able to return to the bond market at a reasonable rate for government borrowing. But we realise this may not be possible. We don’t want to saddle future generations with the debts of the Seanie Fitz, Fingers and the Golden Circle. This will lead to the slow strangulation of the Irish economy and a long goodbye to another generation of our young. We reject the socialisation of private losses. We want to keep total Irish soveriegn debt low, and we’ll guarantee that we will not default on loans provided in good faith to Ireland to fund the construction of our hospitals, schools and motorways will not be defaulted on. This may take some time, so in the meantime we may, unfortunately have to implement some very harsh austerity measures. We will do our best to protect workers, families and businesses through this period. But we will get Ireland back to growth quickly and we will ensure that there are jobs and a future for our young and that today’s young families do not languish in debt servitude’

  • Mack

    Also related to the issue of whether Irish taxpayers should pay for European banking loses. John Bruton would appear to think not –

    http://intercontinentalnetwork.blogspot.com/2011/01/letter-to-president-barroso-of-european.html

  • Mack

    FG & Lab in talks with third parties to negotiate debt restructuring.

    oth Fine Gael and Labour are believed to be looking at bringing in a third party to help restructure the country’s debt burden. According to a source very close to the situation, both parties are believed to be looking at the role Felix Rohatyn played in helping the city of New York restructure its debts when it faced bankruptcy in the 1970s.

    The restructuring would involve forcing haircuts on bondholders and introducing a debt liability management exercise whereby the terms of existing bonds are rolled out to much longer periods. Contact has been made with Rohatyn and a delegation is expected to fly out to New York over the next few weeks to see how the restructuring process that happened in New York can be applied to Ireland, says the source.

    http://www.businessandfinance.ie/news/oppositionconsidersdebtrestructuring

  • obeachain

    Adams position regards default is essentially sound .He is saying our weakness is our strength. European banks are exposed to “Irish ” bank crisis to the tune of 800 billion.
    The deal the Irish team agreed to is complete nonsense and must be renegotiated

    The Germans are able to access funds on the bond market a lot cheaper than the 6-7 % Ireland has to pay because Ireland is perceived to be a poor credit risk. If Ireland and the other countries in crisis were able to source there funds at the same rate as the Germans and French they (the Irish etc) would not be in “a financial crisis”. This would of course mean the GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR THERE MONEY , BUT NOT ANY WHERE NEAR WHAT THE IRISH ARE PAYING NOW.
    The Germans argue that they should not have to pay for Ireland/ Greece / etc being poor financial managers , yet they were instrumental in causing the crisis by funding Irish banks and companies during the mad years ( check German bank exposure to Irish debt} they made a lot of money at the time by funding the boom times.
    They shared the gain so they should share the pain

    The reason for the Irish bail out was a pan Euro effort to stabilize the markets. Ireland was the fall guy for Europe.

    .

  • Mack

    obeachain –

    If Ireland and the other countries in crisis were able to source there funds at the same rate as the Germans and French they (the Irish etc) would not be in “a financial crisis”. This would of course mean the GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR THERE MONEY , BUT NOT ANY WHERE NEAR WHAT THE IRISH ARE PAYING NOW.

    You are talking about Eurobonds here right?

    Unilateral default won’t bring that situation about. The yield on Irish government bonds would likely rise in the aftermath of a default because the market would reasonably assume that having defaulted on debt it once guaranteed they’d be now more likely to default on core sovereign debt. The rise in the yield could create a self-fulfilling prophecy – with the government unable to borrow to fund the deficit or roll over existing debt. No bondholder will want to get caught on the wrong side of that trade.

    We can’t just simply wish that people with money will lend to us at the same rate as the Germans. It is only possible to achieve that with the explicit backing of the German government (by issuing joint debt). That can only come about through negotiation. Unilateral action will kill off the possibility of that happening…