Unionists balance of power shock – News of the World

On the details it’s a fairly confused and confusing report but I just had to share it.

That means Cameron, with the support of the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, will have a majority of four and will be able to go and see the Queen and ask her permission to form a government.

NoW’s Pol Ed Ian Kirby shows an uncertain grasp of arithmetic and NI politics. All the same.. it takes me back to the 1964 election, which Harold Wilson won by a majority of 4 for Labour, in the days when all 12 UUs took the Conservative Whip. Wilson made no bones about deploring their very existence in the Commons. Nothing in later years persuaded him to change his mind.

Adds from UK Polling Report  

There was also an ICM poll of marginals in the News of the World. This was the same 96 seats ICM polled for the previous ICM marginal survey here. It showed support in these seats at CON 35%(-1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 22%(+3) – so only a minor Lib Dem boost in these seats. These levels of support equate to a swing to the Conservatives of 6.8%, so just the swing they would need for an overall majority, and about 1.8% more than the national swing suggested in ICM’s GB poll in the Sunday Telegraph (the News of the World has extrapolated this over the whole country to claim that the Conservatives would have an overall majority – that’s rather stretching it, firstly you can’t assume anything about LD/Con marginals from this poll, secondly the News of the World are making a lot of assumptions about how much support the Conservatives can rely upon from Northern Ireland.

You can say that again.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Would the first DUP per-condition for putting Davey in Downing Street be the break up of the then patently ridiculous UCUNF project and the humiliation of Reginald the diminutive?

    It would be so funny to see Davey have to drag himself before the TV cameras and say that it is all off between him and Wee Reggie and that he had just found Robbo his new real true love.

  • Great news for Unionists

  • wild turkey

    the NOW article is shit.

    but if the scenario did transpire get ready for Robbo to be handed the miniisterial portfolio for ‘Family Business, cafes and residential property development’

    power to the people…. that matter

  • Ld Elon

    Ireland for thee Irish, besides, its an American col state defacto government, anyway, not british, lol,
    Your all a bunch of traitors, no wonder my grandfather left.

  • Re-engaged

    Either wild turkey is a TUV’ite or missed out on opening a river side cafer to an 18 yr old

    PS your power is on Thursday I assume you will use to better effect than the above post

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    “Great news for Unionists”

    but probably very bad news for the UUP – they need a Tory majority and the DUP to have no leverage.

  • Bulmer

    Talk about clutching at straws! A very dubious poll which indicates Tory support slipping yet translates into a narrow Dave victory based on which Unionist votes? As the UUP is unlikely to be returning anyone, can Dave realistically command any respect if he has to rely on the DUP? To say the DUP occupy the same role in English imaginations as the BNP is being charitable.

    My current reading is that unless Dave has a comprehensive majority he will find almost it impossible to be PM. I can see there being action on the streets because he hasn’t an mandate and his proposed future boundary changes are only designed to prevent any future 3 way squeeze and PR.

    In reality if 60% are opposed to your party, you cannot govern. The gamechanger isn’t the debates, Clegg or gaffs. It’s the electorate who are extremely volatile and the vast majority of whom don’t want Dave.

  • John Joe

    Bizarre story. Chances are no UCUNF MPs will be returned from NI. Hence, DC will have to hack out a deal with the DUP. This all, in the unlikely event now, that Dave gets close to a majority.
    Best bet for GB, DC on NC is to state that it will be the case that there will be a hung parliament and if they are the lead party, they will ask all parties form a national coalition to deal with the fiscal crisis (which scarily they have all pushed onto the long finger) and agree to renew on an annual basis or go back to the people.

  • Crow

    Okay so assuming they did get the balance of power, what would they ask for and what would they get?

  • Alias

    It’s NI myopia to assume that the SNP and Plaid Cymru are not aware of the opportunity of a hung parliament and that somehow this opportunity for national importance only presents itself in the form of attention-seeking MPs from NI. In reality they’ll have the numbers and NI won’t. In fact, neither of those parties even mention NI in the hung parliament equation, and that irrelevance is pretty much where mainstream UK opinion has them.

  • Alias

    Incidentally, here is where the SNP and Plaid Cymru are:

    Mr Salmond said at a press conference in London: “Such a parliamentary outcome would present a massive opportunity for the people of Scotland and Wales. We intend to take that opportunity. We would deploy our voting strength in the interests of the people of our nations.”

    And Mr Wyn Jones said: “If you actually look at the way coalitions are done throughout the world, it would be absolutely foolish for us to go into any discussions with any party in Westminster in terms of a coalition. That is what the SNP and ourselves are totally united on.”

    Their alliance doesn’t include the celtic fringe from NI.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    The natural allies of Plaid and Scot Nats is surely the SDLP – not sure why they have not been invited to the Celtic party.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Bulmer:

    As the UUP is unlikely to be returning anyone, can Dave realistically command any respect if he has to rely on the DUP? To say the DUP occupy the same role in English imaginations as the BNP is being charitable.

    That’s not really accurate at all, is it ? People have after all seen Blair and Brown standing shoulder to shoulder with McGuinness and Robinson, and have seen both of those figures dropping in for tea and talks at Number 10. A Tory deal with the DUP is not impossible, noting that the DUP will be in a strong position to exact a price in those circumstances.

    It’s the Scottish and Welsh nationalists who are really going to count, and who may well turn out to be kingmakers for a Lib-Lab coalition.

  • Greenflag

    Question .

    ‘Would the Conservatives do a deal with the DUP if not enough or no UCUNF candidates were elected in Northern Ireland ‘?

    Answers :

    ‘Is the Pope a Catholic ?
    or for the more secular

    ‘Does a fish swim ?

  • Bulmer

    It may not be accurate…in fact I could see the DUP quite happily sitting with any centre left coalition, but the perception in England is that they are ‘Paisley’s lot’ and hence horrid sectarians. Paisley’s pauline conversion went over a lot of heads as indeed did his last incarnation as a born again Liberal. Robinson alas conforms to stereotype.

    Imagine Cameron trying to introduce introduce draconian cuts secure on a majority sustained by Ian Paisley Jr et al. Thought not.

  • Bulmer

    Same reason noone wants to talk to the DUP. Seen as a Catholic sectarian party. Who wants them onboard when you immediately cause problems in Scotland…

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Greenflag,

    Assuming the DUP will have 9 seats how many will all the other Nats have – including 3 for the SDLP who will surely throw their lot in with the other Nats?

    PS ‘Is the Pope a Catholic or a facilitator of paedo priests or a former Nazi youth?

  • Bulmer

    Scots and welsh currentlyhave 8. SNP not expected to add more than 1 or 2. PC is a lot more serious especially since its tasted govt so it could double to 4. Can’t see them propping up Cameron. Electoral suicide for the SNP if they did and PC is too far to the left.

    SDLP however carries its sectarian heritage with it. Unless the DUP came onboard as well (inconceivable?) to neutralise the sectarian overtones, they’ll be sitting with Lady Hermon. Remember Scotland follows Ulster politics and any deal has to be inclusive.

    Of course a Celtic block of MPs of maybe 20 (incl Lady H?) is suddenly a more formidable force. And they do meet each other from time to time.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Bulmer,

    the SDLP is a left of centre party like the other two in Scotland and Wales – it has feck all sectarian baggage – iit is not anti-Protestant but pro-Ireland and this clearly marks it out from the DUP which is anti-Catholic as well as anti-Nationalist.

    The SDLP may not be a perfect fit for the other 2 Nat. parties but is a pretty good one which will be plausible if the artihmetic of Lib and Labs requires about 12/13/14/15 votes.

  • Bulmer

    The SDLP is a Catholic Nationalist party. It’s only true non sectarian leader was Gerry Fitt and its anti-abortion stance makes a mockery of any pretended ‘left of centre’ stance. Yes I know the Labour party pays lip service to it being affiliated, but that’s a hangover from Fitt.

    You can’t honestly believe it isn’t perceived in the mainland as a Catholic party. It doesn’t exactly spend a lot time canvassing up the Shankill.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Bulmer,

    “You can’t honestly believe it isn’t perceived in the mainland as a Catholic party. It doesn’t exactly spend a lot time canvassing up the Shankill.”

    It is not percieved on the mainland at all outside of the political class – it supports a United Ireland and therefore only draws support from one side of the community- it has no history of sectariansim ie anti protestansim – this marks it out from the DUP. The SNP would not like to be seen as anti-Catholic and would therefore have little difficulty selling support for the SDLP as they share a similar constitutional view of Britian – therefore game on.

    It already has an alliance with the Labour Party (as you point out) – it’s a good fit not a perfect one and issues like abortion and other disticntly Irish (or Welsh or Scottish) issues would not be sufficient to stop it happening.

    Having said all of that the arithmetic is very unlikely to fall just as it is required (3) for the Nat parties to have their day in the sun.

  • Bulmer

    “It is not percieved on the mainland at all outside of the political class – it supports a United Ireland and therefore only draws support from one side of the community- it has no history of sectariansim ie anti protestansim –”

    If you do a web search for a definition of sectarianism, your definition of SDLP neatly fits it. The old ‘left’ in the UK had a kneejerk relationship with the SDLP despite the fact it never represented more than one sect which happened to also be nationalist.

    The fact that the other Nationalist parties ignore it tells its own tale.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Bulmer,

    I’m defining sectrainism in the way that parties in Britian would have a problem with – ie they are anti Catholic or anti Protestant, that clearly does not apply to the SDLP and clearly does apply to the DUP.

  • madraj55

    Clutching at straws indeed, Bulmer. It was obvious from the Sky debate onward that Murdoch papers were batting for mr webcam. Their polls have an air of being tampered with after they yielded up unpalatable info for Murdoch taste. The NOW man should know that people in Britain don’t want their parties kow towing with any party here, and especially unionists who most see as stone age politically.

  • union mack

    The SDLP talk some shite about not being sectarian, sectarian headcounts etc. The leaflet they are handing out in East Legenderry is nothing more than an exercise in headcounting.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Are you suggesting it is anti-Protestant?

    Give us a blast of the ‘sectarian’ document.