The most fascinating contest this time in Wales. Here’s last time’s score:
Liberal Democrat: 13093 (36.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 12840 (36%)
Labour: 4316 (12.1%)
Conservative: 4312 (12.1%)
Other: 1107 (3.1%)
Majority: 252 (0.7%)
A seat with a fantastic psephological pedigree. A bastion of Welsh Liberalism for 70 years it was taken by nationalist defector Elystan Morgan for Labour in 1966 before returning to the Liberal fold with Geraint Howells in 1974. In 1992 Cynog Dafis of Plaid did the electoral miracle of coming from 4th to 1st with Green party backing. The Lib Dems regrouped and ditched their Welsh Liberal roots for the pavement pounding bar chart bollocks that the rest of us are used to and reclaimed the seat last time out.
A wonderfully diverse place, two university colleges, a pile of in-migrants, a fascinating religious heritage (Y Smotyn Du – a stronghold of Unitarianism), and linguistically mixed.
The seat is co-terminus with the county council, which is split:
The contest is a real scrap. Sitting MP. Mark Williams, a non-Welsh speaker, has got into trouble over the gibberish issued in his name (A leaflet has a facebook group) whilst Plaid candidate, Penri James, lost his council seat in 2008.
A very close call but as an electoral aside I think both Labour and Tories could poll less than 10% here…….unique in Britain?
Here’s the UK Polling report