UUPs failings: TUV opportunities?

Cometh a Westminster election: cometh UUP incompetence. It seems that the two go hand in hand; always helped of course by that master of the UUP debacle Lord Trimble. Trimble, not content with destroying the party he inherited from Jim Molyneaux, now that he is a Tory, seems determined to repeat the same feat on the CUs. Clearly of course Lord Trimble cannot manage this accomplishment himself. However, he seems to have a willing cast of assistants, possibly more of them in the Conservative wing of the New Farce than on the UUP side.

Many have criticised the decision of the UUP to oppose the devolution of P&J but in truth there was a strategy there involving trying to out flank the DUP. Any such success has now been destroyed by the combination of the Conservatives failure to support the move (admittedly much overhyped by the media and the UUP’s political opponents) and of course the rest of the incompetence the CUs have now managed to visit upon themselves. Then further helped by Lady Hermon attacking the UUPs for not doing what the Conservative faction of the party (the bit she will not join up with) wanted.
The complete chaos of the Westminster selections has been extensively reviewed but is worth returning to. It has made one very likely CU gain (Upper Bann) probably a safe DUP seat since Harry Hamilton is going to have grave difficulty attracting significant disenchanted DUP support let alone any TUV voters. The choice of Mike Nesbitt for Strangfiord may be clever but only may be. Strangford is a hard line seat and Nesbitt is no hard liner. He may, however, win it but then he is likely to be even more semi detached than Lady Hermon ever was. However, the prize for utter incompetence must go to South Antrim where Adrian Watson seems to have been vetoed by the Conservatives. The Watchman has already produced an excellent analysis of the fact that this shows how little the Conservatives understand Northern Ireland politics. In their zeal to maximise their political correctness the Tories seem to have thrown away one of the best chances the CUs had to take a seat and as has been mentioned it is highly unlikely that every single Conservative MP is more socially liberal than Mr. Watson.

In contrast as I mentioned previously the DUP seem to be overcoming their worst internal storms. The ship may have steadied but it may still have been holed below the waterline. There are still massive issues for them: Although the party may seem to be united behind the Devolution of Policing and Justice we have yet to see a justice minister appointed and the fact is that six months or six years became six weeks; not in the life time of this assembly became within the lifetime of the about to be dissolved Westminster parliament. In addition it is far from certain that the political lifetime before which there is a Sinn Fein justice minister will be that much longer than Dr. Paisley’s remaining political lifetime.

The unionist electorate may be far from happy with the devolution of P&J: they were certainly never actually asked and so poor has the DUP’s reading of the unionist electorate been of late that they least can be certain. It was in part the contention that the unionist electorate opposed P&J devolution which drove the UUP’s opposition. The problem is that they (the CUs) are now in chaos.

At the height of the DUP’s crisis the assumption was that the TUV would eat into the DUP’s hard line vote and hence, remove enough votes in a first past the post system to gift seat after seat to the CUs. That may still happen in the following seats: actually just Strangford. In addition conventional wisdom held that is other seats TUVists would vote tactically for the CUs to defeat the DUP incumbents: that is now likely practically nowhere. Rather the opposite voting dynamic cannot now be dismissed out of hand: that traditional UUP voters switch to the CUs to bash the DUP.

So what should the TUV do: give in and go home? Far from it.

Now is the time for the TUV to demonstrate that it is indeed a party with a positive message. Not now and never again let it be said that this is a party purely there to bash the DUP: if that was ever the sum total of the TUV’s ambition then it would have deserved to die out immediately after the European election.

To misquote the Bible: the TUV must not rely on the broken reed of the UUP to try to get a proper form of devolved government.

There is a major appetite in the unionist community to fix the disastrous form of government which has seen Ruane produce ruin out of the education system: yes there were problems with the Secondary School sector but the solution was not the current chaos combined with attempts to destroy the preparatory sector and discrimination in favour of Irish medium schools.

Agriculture saw almost equally chaotic scenes with farmers queuing for grants last year and discriminatory practices in this year’s farm modernisation grants. Farmers have also suffered disproportionally in the vanity project of the A5 improvement which is largely not even providing a dual carriageway but rather the extra “crashing lanes” in the middle.

To be fair Sinn Fein cannot alone be regarded as the only incompetents: although it miscalls my favourite minister the Giant’s Causeway debacle was a mess almost exclusively of DUP creation. The current situation in the NHS where despite receiving more money per capita than most of the rest of the UK, we have worse waiting lists etc. is a situation which can largely be laid at the door of McGimpsey and the waiting lists are longer now than they were under Direct rule. A further question mark over McGimpsey’s competence is raised by his decision to stockpile far more anti flu vaccines and medications than he was advised were necessary: a cheap political stunt with major cost implications.

A proper programme of government might not prevent all this serial incompetence. However, if all the partners in government were prepared to act as a government rather than semi autonomous fiefdoms with interlocking mutual vetoes there might be at least some chance of progress. Certainly it might make some form of cross departmental planning at ministerial level possible.

Such a true cabinet government, however, requires almost by definition voluntary coalition. However no one seems to be that interested in this at least not so much so as to actually take risks to try to achieve it: those risks being the loss of political position and power.

It is in this context that the TUV needs to fight the coming election. Yes certainly mention the sleaze and corruption; certainly point out the differences between the rhetoric and reality of P&J devolution. However, more than anything the TUV need to be positive, articulating a vision of a power sharing system of government with cabinet government and not one with a Catholic about the place but one with lots of Catholics all over and within it; sharing in and participating in a normal democratic government with weighted majorities to ensure permanent cross community involvement.

All the other parties at times explain that the Belfast Agreement model of devolution is temporary. However, the only one which seems willing to do anything about the “ugly scaffolding” is the TUV. Yes the agreement may need to be destroyed to be reformed but one cannot make an omelette with intact eggs.

This may all sound pie in the sky but in seat after seat now, since the CUs seem to be rapidly imploding, the TUV are in danger of being the main unionist challengers: North Antrim obviously but also Lagan Valley (unless someone thinks that Trimble’s latest interventions will catapult his wife to success). East Belfast must be an option for a challenge: certainly Robinson is the front runner but in a multi way split it is highly unclear what will happen and yet again the CU choice of Trevor Ringland looks poor since Naomi Long is likely to hold most of the Alliance vote behind her. The CUs (or at least the Conservative part of them) even seem determined to make Mel Lucas the main challenger to William McCrea in South Antrim.

Clearly the TUV’s chances of winning any seat apart from North Antrim are not rated by any of the pundits. That is probably fair in large measure because the candidates (apart from Allister) are far from high profile. However, the whole point of an election campaign is to give the prospective candidates a chance to demonstrate their profile and this election after the expenses scandals etc. is the one where the lack of a pre election profile may be less of a handicap.

An election result with the DUP holding most or all of their seats and with the CUs trailing in behind them in each constituency will change nothing. One in which the TUV win North Antrim and are second in multiple other seats may have much more of an effect. Additionally if the TUV are second placed just one (or two) more scandals approaching Irisgate could surprisingly easily produce two or more TUV MPs.

  • aquifer

    Translation: DUP loss, CU gains

  • “Rather the opposite voting dynamic cannot now be dismissed out of hand: that traditional UUP voters switch to the CUs to bash the DUP.”

    Does this mean holding their vote, if you are meaning that traditional UUP that might have voted TUV will instead hold their noses and vote CU?

  • Turgon,

    Good analysis, but I would caution against using incompetence as the rationale for opposing the current governmental arrangements becuase although a reasonable arguement and one that many (Nationalists and Unionists) may agree with anti-agreement Unionists will surely vote for the TUV because they oppose SF in government and not because of an arguement of convenience which may disappear once SF and DUP decide to consummate their marriage vows now that they have kissed and made up over Police and Justice.

    Protocol warning: Please adjust your mindset
    For those of a particulalry tribal and/or sensitive disposition and those unable to judge an arguement on it’s merits please be aware that the term Unionist in my name is not an accurate reflection of my political views though it should also be noted that my paternal grandfather was a keen supporter of the Union and I am invoking the FIFA grandparent rule and am opting to call myself so. (I’m sure he would have approved.)

  • Niccolo

    Turgon,

    That was a nice attempt to big up the TUV etc. but for me I simply do not see the point.

    Where do the TUV plan to take the people?

    What ‘Paradise Lost’ can they possibly regain?

    I don’t think I’m alone in this analysis but the TUV seems to be little more than a political lifeboat for those with axes to grind and sour grapes to crush. Their only apparent common thread is a bewildering and insatiable appetite to do damage to fellow Unionists.

    I agree that the TUV’s best hope of a seat is Jim Allister in North Antrim – and he has no chance.

    But please do not listen to me. However, the bookies, which deal in hard facts and hard cash, have IPJ at 5 to 1 on.

    Therefore to return to my original point – what is the point?

  • Bob Wilson

    I’m with Niccolo if you really believe that Turgon you are seriously deluded

  • Keithbelfast

    “A proper programme of government might not prevent all this serial incompetence. However, if all the partners in government were prepared to act as a government rather than semi autonomous fiefdoms with interlocking mutual vetoes there might be at least some chance of progress. Certainly it might make some form of cross departmental planning at ministerial level possible.” – I don’t see how the TUV could add to the level of ‘co-operation’ already happening.

    “It is in this context that the TUV needs to fight the coming election. Yes certainly mention the sleaze and corruption; certainly point out the differences between the rhetoric and reality of P&J devolution. However, more than anything the TUV need to be positive, articulating a vision of a power sharing system of government with cabinet government and not one with a Catholic about the place but one with lots of Catholics all over and within it; sharing in and participating in a normal democratic government with weighted majorities to ensure permanent cross community involvement.” – Again, is this something the TUV is even remotely interested in?

  • alan56

    Is it true that Lady Sylvia is forming an alliance with the DUP in North Down. Principles go out the window at elections. Look what the C and Us have started!!

  • Drumlins Rock

    Read the first couple of paragraphs and got bored, what a load of crap you spout at times turgon, its just your previous tripe served up again, currently the TUV have managed to virtually half their elected representatives in a year, and some opinion polls put them on 1 or 2%, whilst Jim might prove a distraction in North Antrim, and a few other provide an embarassment elsewhere, come the 7th May the TUV will be another footnote on the history books of political ego trips.

  • Did anyone here predict the strength of the TUV performance in the Euro polls? I Personally thought they would have their arses kicked – the key (unspoken) strategy for the TUV is surely survival and then to launch a counter-attack in the Stormo elections where seats are much easier to win.

    The success of their strategy will probably be determined by the unknowns and Ulster politics always supplies a hearty dose of those – Iris, UCUNF, Hatfield, Sylv et al.

    Protocol warning: Please adjust your mindset
    For those of a particulalry tribal and/or sensitive disposition and those unable to judge an arguement on it’s merits please be aware that the term Unionist in my name is not an accurate reflection of my political views though it should also be noted that my paternal grandfather was a keen supporter of the Union and I am invoking the FIFA grandparent rule and am opting to call myself so. (I’m sure he would have approved.)

  • Framer

    MU – how did your granddad’s son end up nationalist then?

    Was it a political conversion lasting into another generation?

  • Carsons Cat

    Turgon
    “TUV need to be positive, articulating a vision of a power sharing system of government with cabinet government and not one with a Catholic about the place but one with lots of Catholics all over and within it; sharing in and participating in a normal democratic government with weighted majorities to ensure permanent cross community involvement.”

    You run that one past the membership yet???

    Lets step back a pace or two to the people the TUV have attracted on board. Lets take for example the TUV President Willie Ross, who to the best of my knowledge hasn’t yet even accepted that the SDLP would be possible partners in Government.

    Turgon – the horrible reality for you is that you don’t in any way reflect the average TUV member. The TUV does exist to bash the DUP simply because the vast majority of its members are disaffected DUP people, and there’s no bitterness like that between former friends.

    You might wish the TUV to put forward some grand positive vision opposing the current devolved structures but you’re on just about your own with that one.

    The TUV have taken that innate hatred of the DUP and tacked on just about any opportunistic opposition they can find on issues right across the spectrum.

    You’re salivating over the opportunities a UCUNF **** up possibly presents in this election. Next time round it will be something else. But the one constant in all of it will be that the TUV will not have actually done a single thing to push their own cause forward but simply circled overhead attempting to pick on the carcasses of any passing discontent with a particular party or on any particular issue.

  • Neil

    In one respect, and I say this as a Nationalist, it’s not always a bad idea to have someone outside the tent, pissing in. We can rely on Big Jim to say those things that the other parties won’t want to talk about. Plus it should be an enjoyable fight up in NA, I do wonder is there not a large rump of people in the DUP who hate IPJ with a passion? I also wonder whether his homophobia and Hill Street office expenses might do him damage along with any suggestions regarding his old mucker that wanted to buy the Giant’s Causeway.

    On the CU front, I can’t see their rejection of a candidate down to their views on homosexuality being a disaster. Rather the most positive thing I’ve heard from that corner so far. The UU’s can also expect help from their considerably slicker counterparts in the Tories with regard to election material and making Reg look good on telly (<--- joke). I think it would be a mistake to disregard the benefits of having someone media savvy at hand to help prevent you coming over a complete cock.

  • Additionally if the TUV are second placed just one (or two) more scandals approaching Irisgate could surprisingly easily produce two or more TUV MPs.

    Turgon

    They would certainly produce at least 2 DUP losses…

    But why would any more of those alleged scandals emerge at this particuliar moment? For whatever reason, the lid was firmly put back on after Irisgate.

  • Niccolo

    Neil,

    No one yet has been able to give me a positive answer as to where the TUV are going.

    At present I share the conclusion of most people and that is: nowhere.

    Jim Allister will increase his vote from zero to whatever he gets in North Antrim in May – this will be his only ‘achievement’ as he will not come close to winning the seat.

    Nevertheless, do not expect JA to go quietly into the night. He will be like the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail – still wanting to fight on with no arms or legs.

    As for the UUP/CONs selection fiasco in South Antrim, well I think you’ll find that most Unionists (privately of course) probably share Mr Watson’s ‘views’ and will not take kindly to a PC substitute. Therefore not really a “positive thing” for their “corner” – not if you want to get elected that is.

    I take your point regarding the media savvy Tories insofar as Sir Reg can now look a bit slicker in defeat.

  • Driftwood

    well I think you’ll find that most Unionists (privately of course) probably share Mr Watson’s ‘views’

    Really????

    I take it you don’t get out much Niccolo?

  • But please do not listen to me. However, the bookies, which deal in hard facts and hard cash, have IPJ at 5 to 1 on.

    If I remember correctly the bookies had no clear winner predicted for North Belfast in 2001. Reality took a different view.

    In short, bookies’ odds prove the square root of sod all

  • Greenflag

    ‘Now is the time for the TUV to demonstrate that it is indeed a party with a positive message.’

    What would that be ?

    Repartition ? What else ? . They won’t share power with the representatives of the largest nationalist party and the SDLP will have nothing to do with the TUV .

    Going nowhere exaggerates the TUV destination . They provide a voice for those on the Unionist side who cannot and won’t adapt to the political situation . So be it . Nothing new there .

  • Niccolo

    Driftwood,

    I find your dismay hilarious.

    Have you ever been to Northern Ireland?

  • Niccolo

    Conquistador,

    Yes, those lads at PaddyPower are all about loosing money aren’t they?

    Well, I’m with the bookies and I say IPJ will win North Antrim.

    Care to bet against me?

  • Niccolo,

    bookies follw the money/herd – Sctoland were 8/1 to beat Ireland last Saturday in ruggerball.

    Framer,

    Grandpapa was an Uncle Tom.

    Protocol warning: Please adjust your mindset
    For those of a particulalry tribal and/or sensitive disposition and those unable to judge an arguement on it’s merits please be aware that the term Unionist in my name is not an accurate reflection of my political views though it should also be noted that my paternal grandfather was a keen supporter of the Union and I am invoking the FIFA grandparent rule and am opting to call myself so. (I’m sure he would have approved.)

  • Neil

    Niccollo,

    I have to agree with Driftwood. It’s all too easy to characterise all North Antrim Unionists as bible thumping Presbyterians who picket shops on Sunday and would disown any homosexual in the family. That’s utter tripe though, I grew up in North Antrim, surrounded by Unionists, and almost all of them had exactly the same views on homosexuality as I do, some of them going so far in their support of gay people as actually being gay themselves!

    Once upon a time people in England thought that if you were a politician, voicing support for gay equality would be enough to end a career. Of course they were wrong. People in Northern Ireland aren’t actually that different to people in ROI, England, Wales and Scotland, we just like to think we are. Plenty of folks up in NA have gay family, and I dare say there’s a few gay Unionists about the place. Not dehumanising them might actually be acceptable to many people.

  • Niccolo

    Moderate Unionist,

    I don’t think the North Antrim Westminster election is analogous to a rugby game, do you?

    I’m also going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the bookies might have a pretty tidy record of being more right than wrong. That’s why they’re still in business.

    I’m not sure your Grandpapa “would have approved” of the tag “Uncle Tom”, do you? Perhaps you mean well, but I’d call it derogatory all the same.

    Call me naive, but wouldn’t it have been simpler (and honest for that matter) if, as a non-Unionist, you didn’t use a name that claims otherwise?

  • Prionsa Eoghann

    “more than anything the TUV need to be positive, articulating a vision of a power sharing system of government with cabinet government and not one with a Catholic about the place but one with lots of Catholics all over and within it; sharing in and participating in a normal democratic government with weighted majorities to ensure permanent cross community involvement.”

    You are a fantacist, or the level of disengenuity has reached incredible levels.

    “TUV President Willie Ross, who to the best of my knowledge hasn’t yet even accepted that the SDLP would be possible partners in Government.”

    Nor has the candidate for East Belfast.

  • Niccolo

    Neil,

    I take your point but still believe the ‘behind closed doors’ reality is somewhat different.

    It’s the attitude that dare not speak its name.

  • scarecrow

    However, more than anything the TUV need to be positive, articulating a vision of a power sharing system of government with cabinet government and not one with a Catholic about the place but one with lots of Catholics all over and within it; sharing in and participating in a normal democratic government with weighted majorities to ensure permanent cross community involvement.

    What if catholics elect other catholics who are shinners? Who will the TUV share power with in this voluntary coalition?

    Who do you guys think you are in TUV, the moral conscience of the electorate, as if the electorate are fools? People will vote for Dawn Purvis and they will vote for Martin McGuinness (according to the tele unionists love him), its the TUV that are being rejected, not the rest. Doesn’t that tell you something?

    Ain’t no body listening. Most think the TUV are ‘proppah’ idiots.

  • Paul

    #

    I’m with Niccolo if you really believe that Turgon you are seriously deluded
    Posted by Bob Wilson on Mar 24, 2010 @ 08:47 AM

    Turgon you are so of of step with the unionist community its laughable.How many votes to think harbinson TUV candidate for LV will take of jeffery donaldson.?I predict IPJ will win NA comfortably Turgon what percentage do you think TUV will get on may 6 with its elite candidates lmao.?And how many MPs will TUV win.?

  • Driftwood

    Niccolo
    I suppose I spent too much of my youth in Lavery’s back bar, but I do not think people of a unionist background are any more homophobic than those of a nationalist background.

    Generally I think the DUP philosophy of homosexuality as an ‘abomination’ or the Earth being 6000 years old etc are not shared by many in the wider unionist community.

    Why people vote for ‘Dr’ Willie McCrea & co is beyond me.

  • Driftwood

    It’s a pity Trevor Ringland wasn’t running in South Antrim where he would have a real chance.

  • Paul

    Phillip robinson is now fav for SA

  • Niccolo

    Driftwood,

    If, as you claim, you do not know why people vote for Willie McCrea how then can you judge the mindset of his electorate?

    Were there no Unionists in Lavery’s then?

  • NornIrelander

    I would quite like to see Peter Robinson retain his MP seat in East Belfast – how realistic do you think this could be for Robinson? And, in regards to the next Assembly election do you think Robinson will return as First Minister? I am not a DUP supporter and would never have voted for them but I think the party has worked hard recently for the people of Northern Ireland and I would like to see Robinson continue as FM because he is very capable and has shown good leadership…

  • Niccolo

    Most of the UUP/CON candidates should feature the prefix “who is” – the ‘Unusual Suspects’.

  • the lone ranger

    nicola are you suggesting that the bookies always get it right? or that they get it more right than wrong which is obvious but maybe north antrim is were they can get it wrong. ian paisley junior will not win comfortably as a lot of unionist people feel he is an arrogant little sod. (just have to look at his rental claims which were adjudged to be 3 times over the market value and when this was pointed out to him he still claims £57,000 p.a) now contrast this with someone unemployed who are asked to feed clothe and heat themselves with around £50 per week which is £2600 per year and yet paisley dynasty want £57,000 to rent!!! i for one would be very willing to take you up on your bet

  • Paul

    a question for turgon.

    which one of the following in which TUV candidates are standing how many votes in he seats will they get

    lagan valley strangford south antrim
    east belfast north antrim mid ulster i assume TUV will contest east antrim and east londonderry north down.

    cant think of many more but who knows with TUV.

  • the lone ranger

    are people really so gullable about are politicians? does anyone not see through them? obviously not listening to dup pr woman nocoola. take the dup office in ballymena ian junior gets the man he knows of (seymour sweeney) to buy the property then transfers it into his father in laws name. not into his own because then he cant claim expenses on it. then claims a staggering 3 times over the limit market value with the loan about half a million to buy the place and claiming £57,000 p.a with the interest to pay it would probaly be paid out in 10 – 12 years by the taxpayer. then at that time the building will probaly be worth a lot of money and were does it go to? back to the taxpayer who funded it? i think not!! the dup have given a whole new name to big house unionism big houses unionisn (plural) then every election time from time memorial we have to vote as many unionists in as possible because we are in danger of becomming a united ireland if we dont. wasnt the issue sorted out at the st andrews agreement??? (i think we should know) for the last lot of months all the dup have said is how bad direct rule ministers are but i always thought (shows you my naievity) that direct rule ministers were british ministers and therefore unionist ministers as expectantly they must be uk) but according to the dup they are bad!! so why oh why is it important for unionist unity if these direct rulers are so bad? please could someone explain. the bottom line is this dupers northern ireland has become a little surrogate state which is nursed over by its parents/guardians the irish and british governments. (hence the hillsbourough agreement which needed their tender loving care to push through) the dup have long played on protestant fears about a united ireland (yet jeffrey extols the belfast tele poll about how catholics now vote for the union. so why all the panic about an all ireland then jeffrey?) in any election it should be about the best man for the job not that he is an unionist and when unionists are returned to the british parliament what can they actually influence anyway? again i would love to know. but from paisley to now the blatant way they have exploited protestants and there inbuilt fears is terrible to watch. (as a protestant myself brought up on stories of the 1641 rebellion and how 100,000 protestants were killed during this which was a near impossibility as there were only 80,000 settlers or planters on the whole of ireland so actually according to these stories the whole plantation was wiped out in ireland and the native irish killed 20,000 of their own!! according to sources the figure was more like 5,000 and within a very short period when the rebellion was subdued 5000 catholics were killed in retaliation. the thing is 100,000 sounds a lot better than 5000 and would play a lot better on protestant fears. like the dup before the euro election we cant have sinn fein topping the poll or it will be so bad. well they did and guess what the sky never fell in and were not an all ireland!!! the dup have not one decent m.p. in fact they are maybe not the only ones there. but stop shamefully playing on peoples fears and let the best man for the job be the only criteria not unionist no matter what his her ability to do the job.

  • the lone ranger

    I would quite like to see Peter Robinson retain his MP seat in East Belfast – how realistic do you think this could be for Robinson? And, in regards to the next Assembly election do you think Robinson will return as First Minister? I am not a DUP supporter and would never have voted for them but I think the party has worked hard recently for the people of Northern Ireland and I would like to see Robinson continue as FM because he is very capable and has shown good leadership…

    Posted by NornIrelander on Mar 24, 2010 @ 01:29 PM
    how did peter robinson show good leadership? he didnt want to do policing and justice make no mistake about that. he was forced to. funny how a lot of things came out in january then when he does the deal it all stops.leadership none sorry his hand was forced.just in case you think he was showing leadership listen to lord morrow and gregory campbell when asked about policing and justice.

  • Impartial Reporter

    NornIrelander No. 6

    Not going to happen.

    Coming soon to a TV near you ‘Spotlight 2 – it’s electric boogaloo’.

    Lights, camera, bye bye DUP ?

  • Neil

    Have ye inside info? Are these rumours going to make it as far as the public, whatever they may be?

  • alan56

    IR

    Come on ,don’t tease….tel us more

  • Paul

    #

    NornIrelander No. 6

    Not going to happen.

    Coming soon to a TV near you ‘Spotlight 2 – it’s electric boogaloo’.

    Lights, camera, bye bye DUP ?
    Posted by Impartial Reporter on Mar 24, 2010 @ 02:25 PM

    spill lol

  • Conquistador,

    Yes, those lads at PaddyPower are all about loosing money aren’t they?

    Well, I’m with the bookies and I say IPJ will win North Antrim.

    Care to bet against me?

    What odds are you offering?

  • the lone ranger

    so conquistor theres never been a 50-1 shot which has one? and what odds on ian paisley sharing power with the I.R.A. would you have got in 1974?? or in 1969? when he systematically destroyed terence o’neill (who by the way served gallantly in the 2nd world war were big ian who was the legal age in 1943 to sign up for service didnt bother to. him being a commited pacifist and all that. maybe it was true what everyone said that he would fight for ulster with the last drop of everybody else’s blood) and after o’neill faulkner. who by the way wanted to share power or in o’neill’s case reform with constituonal nationlism. so wot odds would old paddy power have given you then? can we take it then that bookies never have to pay out? they cant do can they they always get it right

  • the lone ranger

    as i said conquisitor a lot of unionist people believe that ipj is a total we arrogant sod and in the last few years has been a total embarasement. (i know of him comment) his total bias in lobbying for seymour well documented in david gordons fall of the house book. well politics and being a good politician is a lot more than lobbying for property devolopers. the dispatches programe showed politicians in a good light. as usual with unionism and its arrogant attitude put up anybody and they believe the people will just vote for them. dosnt really matter how good you are at the job you must vote or the other lot will get in. play on their fears about how well end up in a united ireland well hopefully people can now see above all that and actually vote for suitable candidates who are up for the task. not arrogant little mavericks who charge 3 times market value for renting property of your father in law. £57,000 p.a.??? people dont forgrt these things. and if he does get in well you really do get the politicians you vote for.

  • Seosamh913

    Money where mouths is here guys, please. Lone ranger, judging by your earlier comments you’re plainly a novelty punter sooooo…. I’ve just been to Paddy Power and as their politics microsite is down just now my eye was drawn to the Rear of The Year prices. Susan Boyle can probably best best described as, shall we say, unfancied at 80/1. If that’s a little strong for you, Heather Mills is 40/1 so make of that what you will. Probably best if we uninvite further commentary on that particular race.

    Eastwoods have TUV at 7/4 for North Antrim, DUP 4/9 incidentally.

  • the lone ranger

    7/4 tuv well that would be worth a punt. talking of susan boyle was she not favourite for britains got talent? odds on afer her first audition. well for rear of the year 80-1 might be worth a bet going on the fact when she was clear favourite she lost and now when shes not well who knows???

  • the lone ranger

    by the way what price diversity?? just shows you nicoola favourite dosnt always win.

  • Seosamh913

    driftwood

    “Why people vote for ‘Dr’ Willie McCrea & co is beyond me”.

    Wouldn’t christianity-inspired superstition, fear servility and credulity cover a decent portion of it ?

  • granni trixie

    MU: re protocal warning joke – worn a bit thin by now? Or are U a 1 trick pony?

  • Eastwoods have TUV at 7/4 for North Antrim, DUP 4/9 incidentally.

    More realistic than Paddy Powers who tends to do the odd loss-leader headliners at times like this. If you’re wanting a punt on Jimbo, stick it on with Paddy, he’s offering 3/1.

  • Niccolo

    Paddy Power is still offering 3 to 1 against for the TUV and 5 to 1 on for the DUP in North Antrim.

    I’m sure he’d be more than happy to take your cash folks. Don’t forget that favourites, of course, never win. Reassure yourself with all those examples quoted which prove it.

    Then when IPJ wins, if you share your views on why he should’ve lost with Mr Power, perhaps you can convince him to refund your money.

    Good luck with that by the way.

  • NornIrelander

    Actually, I do think that Peter Robinson displayed considerable leadership and skill in helping to bring about the devolution of policing and justice, particularly as he was faced with immense personal and political pressure at that time. He had the courage to go for the deal and evidently, he also had the talent and influence to bring ‘onboard’ his party in devolving the powers. I think that he does deserve great credit because he showed the strength of character and political might to go forward with the deal and he carried the deal. Regardless of what one may think of the man and his politics he showed some guts and helped avoid a political disaster, which admittedly he and his party had been partly responsible for creating – however, when his position was questioned and his very political career threatened and the institutions brought to the brink he finally showed the courage in going forward and he did so for, I believe not only his position as First Minister but also because he knew that it was right – and he has after all, when you scratch past the DUP image always had an inclination for power-sharing and devolution in the past, particularly around the time of the Unionist Task Force…there is always a difference between the political and personal language employed by our politicians, and I really do believe – as many sources have confirmed – that he wanted this deal and in spite of previous party language he and the DUP did the deal…I would like to see him re-elected and stay on as First Minister…

  • granni trixie

    NornIrelander: Whilst PR has to be credited for having a change of heart and for getting to yes, try telling people who tried to work with him (and Iris) on Castlereagh Council that he was always inclined to powersharing – they simply would not agree with you.

  • Niccolo

    I used to watch The Lone Ranger when I was a kid. I never would have guessed it was none other than Lord Carson behind the mask though.

    Well, knock me down with a feather.

  • the lone ranger

    well nicoola just as i suspected your a duper. there website gives it away eh. well talking of people being unmasked did your party founder pull off his 50 year old one and put a different one on for the last 3 years. oir did ian really die a few years back and is it really a clone that we see now? either way they are 2 completely different people. as for peter doing a good job and the dup you just have to scratch the surface a there was always power sharing there. well i scratched the surface right back to 1974 sunningdale in fact unionism and constitunial nationalists (not the i.r.a. sinn fein) and who was at the forefront of protest? oh yes youve guessed it them power sharing dupites. terence o’neill that dirty man who wanted to give catholics a better way of life how was he described by the wonderfull powersharing dup? oh dont need to tell do i? by the way old lundy ternece o’neill who fought gallantly in the 2nd world war while the one calling him traitor and cowardly was eligible to fight in the world war 1943-1944 born in 1926 never did. (the old saying big ian would for ulster with the last drop of everybodiy else’s blood. the bottom line of policing and justice the dupleader didnt want it fact the scandal broke out in january sinn fein threatened if it wasnt done there would be an election which the dup would have fared very badly in. fact great leadership. lord morrow never in our lifetime. is lord morrow dead? gregory campbell 6 years 6 weeks 6 months well i know time flies but 6 minutes gregory?? back to powersharing just scratching the surface again 1998 never happened with the dup’s help. 2006 a certain mr ivan lytlle grabbed by the collars by mr paisley a told never going into government with sinn fein!! same said at pertrush at an independant orange lodge 12th julky demonstration. in fact it was emphatic over our dead bodies. (hence my clone staement at the start) oh yes the dup were the paragon of powersharing

  • Harry J

    i understand the TUV will be outside polling stations on election day asking people to sign their petition to free a loyalist terrorist

  • Seosamh913

    Harry J

    which one ?

  • the lone ranger

    Conquistador,

    Yes, those lads at PaddyPower are all about loosing money aren’t they?

    Well, I’m with the bookies and I say IPJ will win North Antrim.

    Care to bet against me?

    What odds are you offering?
    conquisitor do you understand the conception of gambling and bookies making money? now lets take your logic paddy power are all about losing money arent they. well if everyone bets on ipj to win as the favourite and paddy power want to make money on this well if he won do you realise what happens? you guessed it the bookies have to pay out to all those people (maybe thousands of bets) who backed ipj to win. now im not a money maker or knowledgeable on these matters but it would strike me as very odd that if paddy had to pay out on ipj and a lot of bets were placed on it for him to win he would lose money. my brother who does like a bet and does know a lot about it would tell you those odds are there to get a lot of money on ipj winning because how they would make money would be on jim allister winning!!! look at the odds a day or two before the election day they might be a wee bit better placed.

  • Lone Ranger

    I think you’re mixing your Conquistadors and Niccolos up. The Dupe, Mr/Ms Niccolo, was the one putting his faith in those 1/5 odds.

  • the lone ranger

    harry j would that loyalist terriorist be billy wright by any chance?? no sorry that was a different mp who did that. was the mp who in the middle of the anglo irish agreement protests took a few hundread into a wee village called clontibret were the average age of the village was 98 and painted loyalist slogans all over the place!! who was the mp (or mps) who donned red berrets and told everybody that ulster would fight? the same organisation which they formed shipped him thousands of guns which were used on the catholic community to kill and then deny that this is what they meant by ulster fighting?? who was the mp that said to the ruc dont blame me when you are burned out of your homes?? harry j before you make comments like the one above check out the dup’s own chequered past and its constant flirtation with loyalist terriorists. was it not the late david ervine who said that he could tell you the colour of the wallpaper of a lot dup houses and actually told the loyalists not to call a ceasefire? 1974 mr paisley sat very comfortably with the loyalist paramilitaries in a wee house across the road from stormont. now dont get me wrong i am no tuv supporter i believe that this country has needed an internal settlement to mend what has gone on here for generations but i will take no lectures from hidden dup agendas about loyalist terrorists because they have flirted with them from the beginning of the troubles.

  • the lone ranger

    you will find o’neill that i copied and pasted conquisitors post look back and see.