Just a thought: Are the DUP about to call SF’s bluff?

For give the half baked nature of this, but it just occurs that if Robinson can stay, there would be no hiatus. No hiatus means no fly negotiation opportunity to sink the Assembly over Policing and Justice for Sinn Fein. Brave, certainly. They may get caned at Westminster, but calculate they get through this crisis they can get the win on Policing and Justice…

  • villager

    Maybe Robinson could agree to stand down at the next assembly election?

  • Drumlins Rock

    what is a DUP P&J win?

  • TellMeMa

    I did suggest that yesterday in the scenario thread…

  • Mick Fealty

    That would get them through. It would be risking huge damage to the party in the run in to the general election with a lot of pain but with Policing and Justice undevolved. I wonder too if some of the the aggression of the media will backfire it it turns out there actually is no ‘smoking gun’.

    They can’t avoid a bad run out. But there would be at least something in the bag. And they get to share at least some of the pain with Sinn Fein…

  • villager

    The DUP could also agree to a Robinson resignation contingent on Sinn Fein agreeing to renominate. Any kind of scenario like this would be very difficult on Robinson, if he feels like he’s being stabbed in the back he probably won’t want to put himself through all that, certainly not for any period of time.

  • Panic, these ones like it up em.

    In there present predicament the DUP are in no position to call anyones bluff.

  • Driftwood

    He’ll still win East Belfast by a country mile. Nice fall back if he wants to stay in politics. Westminster is rather less concerned with parochial issues.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Strangely I’m guessing very few really want Robinson to go ATM, there is no-one in his own party really up for the job, the TUV & UUP I think secretly would prefer the DUP goning into the election with a damaged leader, and hope that more emerges later to topple him down the line, getting a second bite at the cherry so to speak. Much as SF would like a scape-goat to blame for a collaspe, I think they know the best chance of a deal is with Robo, plus if he stays it takes pressure of Gerry for now. The government def dont want him to go and finally he dosnt want to go himself!

  • Lionel Hutz

    No. Sinn fein have nothing to lose now by pulling the plug.

  • Lionel Hutz

    No. Sinn fein have nothing to lose now by pulling the plug.

  • Lionel Hutz

    No. Sinn fein have nothing to lose now by pulling the plug.

  • Mallie – Dodds about to make statement.

  • Lionel Hutz

    Nevin, where and when.

  • Dodds backs Robinson

  • Mallie is on Twitter

  • slug

    Nigel Dodds has just stated that P Robinson has the full support of DUP elected members.

    Robinson to make an appearance in Stormont as SF requested. This appearance seems to be a SF-gifted opportunity to take this the way he wants it to go.

  • Garza

    Looks to me Robbo is staying. Good news for UUP and TUV.

  • Lionel Hutz

    He can’t stay. This is suicide for the DUP. Either he resigns this afternoon or the DUP know exactly whats on the Panorama program tonight. Can he take new revelations?

  • slug

    But would the DUP would not do better under an alternative leader. They may be best to show confidence in him and work this as best they can that way. The Westminster elections could see losses but perhaps limited: some of the alternative candidates are not strong.

  • Mick Fealty

    Panic, you agree it is a bluff then?

  • Turgon

    Robinson may or may not go. I have suggested already that the situation is completely unpredictable. Such is the hype that if Panorama lands a heavy blow yes he could well be finished. However, if it produces nothing new he will be still there: the hype will have been seen to be merely that; hype. If he continues to take no extra damage he could survive. No guarentees but he could.

    There are, however, dangers in this for Sinn Fein. If Robinson goes they can collapse the assembly by not agreeing to renomination. If he does not they will have to decide to stick with the assembly in direct contradiction to what they said they would do. Alternatively it will be them destroying the agreement.

    In any ensuing negotiations Sinn Fein may well get a less good deal. They might also get Direct Rule which no matter how they spin it as the beginnings of joint authority will not be as nice for their functionaries as the current assembly. In addition the IRA will have stopped and what they term as British (or worse English) ministers will be in charge of NI for the forseeable future. Is that what Bobby Sands and the others committed suicide for?

    Personally I hope SF collpase the agreement and Robinson stays for at least a while. He is a good negotiator and along with others could help hammer out a better deal for us. Any who doubt that I mean this might read this blog: Peter Robinson’s Choices.

  • Mick Fealty

    Drumlin,

    I agree with the logic of Drumlin’s question, but think prisoners dilemma… It’s reductive, but so are the processes here… DUP may calculate their last great gesture is to screw the shinners as hard they screwed them…

  • Lionel Hutz

    The paisleys were not there for Dodds’ statement. Thats a bit of a snub

  • slug

    The hype will die at some point and yesterdays hype will as Turgon says seem smaller tomorrow. Brazening it out will be a familiar leadership strategy to SF-followers only in Robinson’s case the allegations are more minor. There is a DUP base willing to be sympathetic if Robinson can play it right. UUP will win some more MPs but DUP are still a stronger party with lots of talent-they should not panic.

  • Sammy Morse

    Turgon, if that’s really what you think, why the hell are you involved with TUV?

  • Lionel Hutz

    Mallie seems to think there’s more to this. Of course there is. Robinson is gone! He has to be. No-one jumped out in support of him last thursday, why would they today! He has to be leaving

  • Ulick

    “DUP may calculate their last great gesture is to screw the shinners as hard they screwed them…”

    Mick, in what way did the ‘shinners’ screw the DUP? I thought they had done everything required; St. Andrews, Massereene, acquiescence in the Irish Language Act etc…

  • Turgon

    Sammy Morse,
    Because I think that a better deal is obtainable. I have blogged on the subject repeatedly: here is one of them.

    I also think that in the absence of a collpase SF will veto any move towards a better, more democtaric, more workable agreement.

    Furthermore I do not think the DUP would have held the line on P&J without the TUV’s existence and may still give in on that and other issues.

    However, if the DUP are willing to renegotiate the agreement thne I would support them in so doing.

  • Police and Justice is not about a win for SF or the DUP, this is the tired old politics I thought we are trying to move away from, but rather if it is a sensible policy for Northern Ireland.

    I would share the view of Owen Patterson that there should be all party talks on the issue to review the good progress made so far by the DUP and SF to try an conclude a deal as soon as possible and the position of each party should be made clear with the Unionist parties not afraid to embrace further power and move away from always being associated with trying to prevent it.

    Excellent news that Robinson has the backing of his party.

  • slug

    Mallie hinting (“he wears many hats”) that Robinson will resign as FM but not as leader? Can’t see it in the DUP statement but Mallie may have other sources.

  • Lionel Hutz

    FM, MP, MLA. Surely only the first will go. I forogt about the leader hat mind you

  • Mick Fealty

    Which means slug, that you were right all along… The catch may be in whether there are any legal traps for him… I think his team are confident of their ground…

  • fpveritas

    I think the TUV must get rid of Turgon

  • Lionel Hutz

    whats gonna happen the dup now. The notable and influential absentees from that statement seem to be at odds with the others. Is there a battle for the party?

  • Lionel Hutz

    Perhaps Robinson is ensuring a peaceful transition to the right kind of successor?

  • cut the bull

    If he does stay??????????? can other parties work alongside a first minister who is carrying so much baggage and will they not loss their own credibility.
    Saved a first minister who ahemm may not have Exactly done any thing ahemm wrong, but who dint do any thing right not even when the fan was getting covered in shite.
    Saved the Assembly built on foundations of illicit affairs and dodgy fonancial deals. If other politicians stay, then its open season for every body to get involved in dogy deals adn quite frankly ride all around them.

  • Panic, these ones like it up em.

    Mick Fealty said

    “20.Panic, you agree it is a bluff then?”

    No I do not believe that Sinn Féin are bluffing

    and the DUP are in no position to call it even if they were.