Chancerism?

Splintered Sunrise suspects so.

In terms of the peace process, Proconsul Woodward has come out batting strongly for Peter. There are noises from the PSF corner, on the other hand, threatening to collapse the Assembly if the devolution of policing and justice isn’t agreed this week. Obviously the Shinners have been deeply annoyed by the statement of DUP kingmaker Lord Morrow that the issue won’t be agreed within the lifetime of this Assembly. Given that P&J is an issue that’s important to the party rather than the electoral base – it isn’t something that’s inspiring mass rallies in Dunville Park – it remains to be seen whether they are willing to pull the plug on the “indigenous deal”, or are just using the DUP crisis to chance their arms. On their past record, I’d guess the latter.

In case you were wondering, “chancerism” was identified in Dublin recently by former-Sinn Féin Cllr Killian Forde.

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  • West Sider

    The collapse of the Assembley is now inevitable. Sinn Fein will bring the curtain down this week.

    Dissident violence will continue at a low level and will finally peter out.

    The DUP are finished as an electoral force – and until we get devolution going again it is going to be joint authority/direct rule on a scale which will sicken unionists.

    I find the unionist contributors to this site betting the farm on a Conservative government hilarious. Yeah, like they’ve been friends to unionists before: Sunningdale, Anglo Irish Agreement et al.

    Cameron will do what is politically expedient in this context and even with a small majority will ensure devolution is restored.

    It’s a win win for nationalists, but Sinn Fein MUST occasion a reboot by walking away.

  • What’s wrong with ‘opportunism’?

  • Garza

    What is it with Republicans on this forum lumping all unionists together in a block like somehow we are not divided?

  • West Sider,

    If Peter Robinson is forced out (unfairly in my opinion) then the last chance of a deal between Unionism and Nationalism will be lost, probably for a considerabel period, as Peter Robinson’s approach which has been a pragmatic one, will be replaced by an attempt to try and outlank the TUV.

    This may be an opportunity for the Ulster Unionist party to move firmly and unashamedly into the middle ground and to use its close links with Tory party to ensure there are no further concessions to Nationalism before any new attempt at re-establishing the institutions is made.

  • Arx1

    West Sider

    even worse for unionists if Westminster turns out to be a hung government but not that cameron was going to strongly support unionism anyway since his main policy seems to be blame labour and forget about everyone else, lets just see how that policy works out for them when they get into power.

  • Garza

    MU

    I don’t get where you think that the Tories will act anymore different that Labour. The Tories are 100% behind power sharing, as are the majority of the people of Northern Ireland, the people of the UK and the people of the Republic of Ireland.

  • Scaramoosh

    Chancerism is a common trait amongst all members of the political class. They are all essentially yes men; men of straw, engaged in pulling the wool over the publics’ eyes..

  • Garza,

    “The Tories are 100% behind power sharing”

    It is the bit in between the current power sharing which will almost certainly collapse, and the next one, which may be a few years away where Unionists and Nationalists will both be lobbying a Tory government for either Orange or Green policies that I am referring to.

    Arx1,

    in the event of a hung parliament it is the block (Unionist or Nationalist) with the most MPs which will be in the best position to influence Tory policy and only someone who believes in a United Ireland in 2016 would also believe that block will be Nationalist.

  • My goodness, we are getting ahead of ourselves here.

    West Sider

    “The DUP are finished as an electoral force – and until we get devolution going again it is going to be joint authority/direct rule on a scale which will sicken unionists.”

    1. If the DUP are finihed as an electoral force, who do you think will be taking their place?

    2. Why do you think the ROI’s govt, at this very moment in time (when they may have one or two other more pressing problems on their minds), will be rubbing their hands at “sickening the Unionists”? Why would either Labour or the Conservatives be wishing to “sicken the Unionists”?

    ARX1

    “…even worse for unionists if Westminster turns out to be a hung government…”

    Only a problem if SF decide to take up their seats and with the SDLP hold the balance of power- a likely scenario do you think? If not, do you want then to talk us through your logic here?

    But, yes, like you both, I hope SF should go right ahead and bring the shambles at Stormont down.

  • Rubicon

    Morrow’s statement occurred so soon after the Spotlight programme that it was most likely an opportunity he sought to exploit in communicating to DUP leaders – perhaps to PR himself. Whether intended for internal consumption or not, it will certainly have been seen as a power-play by SF. Gerry Kelly’s statement on the radio earlier today confirms this – McGuiness’ meeting with Robinson and Dodds did not move P&J forward.

    All this clarifies things a little – it doesn’t matter any longer whether PR is with the DUP hawks or doves/pragmatists. He can’t deliver on P&J and for SF he serves no more useful purpose. Unfortunately for SF, there is no possible replacement for PR who could or would deliver – not on their timetable anyway.

    With PR a busted flush (for SF) it’s likely SF will declare open season on him in the Assembly over the coming week(s). If they peddle easy it’ll only be because the DUP itself may be offering up his head while taking a swing to the right and picking up the blame card on their travels.

    SF would be daft to resign the DFM post while this plays out. They need do nothing more than keep the attention on the DUP – for the next week or so anyway. Beyond that – it looks likely that the DUP will be going in to a general election without much to show, a failed executive and a 3-way split in unionism (not counting North Down & Sylvia).

    I don’t know how long the Assembly could function without an executive. The St. Andrew’s Act mentions a 7 day period but I couldn’t locate anything that determined what happens if FM&DFM; were not appointed in that period. Could we be looking at a few months of a Prior-type Assembly to carry us over the general election?

    Post election I doubt it’ll matter much to NI politics whether the Tories or Labour win. If an Assembly election isn’t forced/required before 2011 then the biggest job at hand will be for unionism to reorganise or risk gifting SF the position of First Minister.

  • Rubicon,

    “SF would be daft to resign the DFM post while this plays out”

    That is true, but if they now see Stormont with no further practical value to their cause they will undoubtedly also want an Assembly election as soon possibe with the DUP in disarray and this may encourage them to move rather sooner.

  • Mick Fealty

    Futuring again lads? If this breaks down, we are into a whole new ball game… I would not be predicting anything beyond a realignment in Unionism and a possible shifting of the balance within Nationalism.

    But it very much depends on a lot of unknown factors within both… What happens next I really don’t know… But then I never was really that big on historical determinism..

  • Kensei

    Given that P&J is an issue that’s important to the party rather than the electoral base

    Unless of course, you actually ask them……

  • Mick,

    Yes indeed, as this blog appears to be in the business of futuring.

    “it remains to be seen whether they are willing to pull the plug on the “indigenous deal”, or are just using the DUP crisis to chance their arms. On their past record, I’d guess the latter.”

  • Rubicon

    Moderate Unionist – surely SF are very far from seeing Stormont/devolution to be of “no further practical value to their cause”? Whether over the short or longer term – it is the only game in town.

    Mick – futuring? I think the only thing I did ‘future’ was the need for a reallignment in unionism. Speculating a “whole new ball game” seems a lot nearer to futuring than I’m prepared to venture (though – tomorrow is another day ;))

  • Pete Baker

    Damian

    You need to re-consider the last part of the quoted section in the original post.

    it remains to be seen whether they are willing to pull the plug on the “indigenous deal”, or are just using the DUP crisis to chance their arms. On their past record, I’d guess the latter.

    MU

    You’ve missed the question mark in the title.

    “Futuring”, which we’ve seen penty of in other posts, is an entirely different beast.

  • Pete baker,

    I was not referring to the title but to the parpagraph I actually quoted from Mr Splintered Sunrise who is contending that “P&J is an issue that’s important to the party rather than the electoral base” by futuring that they are unwilling to pull the plug.

  • Pete Baker

    MU

    Then you need to re-consider the relevant quote in light of the provided definition of “futuring”.

    As opposed to what we’ve already seen in other posts…

    Try looking again at my previous post.

  • 0b101010

    The absolute worst thing SF could do to themselves right now is publicly collapse the assembly. They need to step up pressure strictly on policy (P&J, P&J, P&J…), hammer the DUP on lack of leadership and allow the DUP to tear themselves to shreds.

    Every second spent on this would go towards building a perception currently lacking: that of a viable party of government across the island.

    Get shots out of Marty sitting at his desk, answering calls, scribbling on paper, doing whatever it is we pay him to do… all while the DUP are murmuring behind closed doors.

    Perhaps a poisoned chalice given their politics, but if they can get an election called without publicly forcing one, they could land themselves the position of largest party and First Minister.