A hint of a Happy Christmas for Gordon

You can feel the waves of anxiety coming at you from the lively Tory house journal the Spectator, hit by the Indy’s ComRes poll that the Conservatives are only (only!) nine points clear – and with holes. And who says the Americans are indifferent to British politics? The Wall St Journal, no less, gives Cameron a solemn lesson.

if he wants to convince Britain that he deserves to be its Prime Minister with a proper parliamentary majority, Mr. Cameron will need to produce his biggest rabbit out of a hat yet What’s he about? What’s the story he’s trying to tell?” asks a natural Cameron supporter.

The committed pro-Labour Mirror’s Kevin Maguire fresh from a chat with Gordon, is actually bullish about the PM who it seems is even trying to do human. Meanwhile election battle lines are being drawn – within Labour. The story about a spurned Mandleson clearly has legs and suggests Brown intends to fight the election campaign from a left core base, while Mandy wants to hang loose in a middle Britain direction. Barring too many flounces, I would expect the calendar to compel an easy enough reconciliation. The Torygraph does its best to put a brave spin on it for Cameron, suggesting that Labour’s very revival increases the chances of a late putsch against Gordon. What a wonderful trade is political journalism. Ace polling analyst John Curtice delivers the cautionary tale to any hint of Labour eurphoria. All the same, it’s enough to make me want to hug a hoodie. These spasms of volatility look like rescuing us from the deep boredom of a long run-in to a predictable election result.

  • Paul

    The Election is far from a tory shoe in.If people think theres going to be a tory landslide.i think they are wrong

  • Paul

    Interesting article below taken from political betting

    See link http://www.politicalbetting.com

    Could April 8th be the day?

    The veteran FT political columnist, Sue Cameron, has what could be a shrewd point this morning on the election date. She writes:-

    “Tory leader David Cameron talks of March 25 as polling day, which would save Labour having an austerity Budget. Others suggest May 6 to coincide with the local elections. Labour, they say, cannot afford to fund two elections and its core vote will only turn out once. I hear the shrewd money is on April 8..”

    Sue Cameron, it should be noted, goes on to make the point of May 6th meaning that general election would take place on the same day as some local elections which could offer benefits.

    A problem with March 25, of course, is that the clocks have not been switched to BST with the campaign and election taking place when the evenings get dark early. The following weekend is Easter with April 8th being the first Thursday afterwards.

    Maybe Mr. Brown would calculate that more Tory supporters are likely to be away at that time than Labour ones and that could make a vital difference in key marginals.

    The Labour leader might be encouraged as well by the precdent of John Major in 1992 when the election was held on April 9th.

    Surprisingly the betting on an April date offers some pretty tasty prices. Both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes have it at 16/1. On Betfair all the good offerings on April have been snapped up overnight.

    If you can get 16/1 it’s worth a punt.
    # Hat-Tip to poster “Me” on the previous thread.
    # UPDATE I am reminded that Bunnco had an excellent analysis on Politicalbetting Channel2 in August on why April 8th is a real possibility.
    Mike Smithson

  • Drumlins Rock

    We are stuck in no-mans-land at the minute, as we dont know when the election is yet, the tories are holding back for the real campaign i’m guessing, and labour trying to prevent a total derailment, with some success atm, but it wont take much to end things off totally in the new year.
    I’m persuming jan and feb are now out! and concensus seems to be having a campaign over Easter isnt good so April is out, I wonder how far will we be into the new year before we will know if its march or not?

  • Paul

    #

    We are stuck in no-mans-land at the minute, as we dont know when the election is yet, the tories are holding back for the real campaign i’m guessing, and labour trying to prevent a total derailment, with some success atm, but it wont take much to end things off totally in the new year.
    I’m persuming jan and feb are now out! and concensus seems to be having a campaign over Easter isnt good so April is out, I wonder how far will we be into the new year before we will know if its march or not?
    Posted by Drumlins Rock on Dec 23, 2009 @ 12:30 PM

    good post above

    I now think may 6th is a non starter buts its just my opinion its either march 25th or the date mentioned in the article.Just my opinion

  • danielmoran

    Brian Walker. It looks like Gordon might get out of jail after all. Normally there’sa tightening in , in the run up to the campaign starting.
    Perhaps the great British Public have adopted the fatalistic approach of’ the devil you know’, and think in increasing numbers that grumpy old Brown, is at least unflashy enough that he must therefore be sincere, in contrast to the ‘all things to all men’ Cameron.
    That’s my theory, [and fervent hope] at least. Happy Christmas to you, by the way.

  • Sunday’s Observer had the Conservatives 17 points ahead with a 100 seat majority.

  • Paul

    The polling see-saw continues
    December 21st, 2009

    CON 38% (41)
    LAB 29% (24)
    LD 19% (21)
    OTHERS 14% (14)
    It’s now Labour up five from Comres in just nine days

    In keeping with the wise words on MORI founder, Sir Bob Worcester, I’m going to try not to report polls in terms of the lead – focussing on the party shares instead. As Bob says with the lead you have double the margin of error.

    So after the last ComRes poll which was published nine days ago we have a sharp turnaround in Labour’s position – up by a walloping five points to their highest share from the pollster since March. This is at the expense of the Tories – down three and into the 30s again, and the Lib Dems who see a two point cut.

    The Labour movement is way above the margin of error. A factor that might have driven it is the high profile for ministers at the Copenhagen conference – or an element could be sample variation between the firm’s two polls this month.

    I am assuming that the ComRes past vote weightings are roughly in line with their last poll. They have been much more stable of late though they do move more than ICM and Populus. The reason these can vary is that all three have complex formulas to take into account false recall.

    This is unlike PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, which uses precisely the same past vote weightings with every poll linked directly to what happened at the last election taking no account of false recall – an element that might be contributing to its lack of turbulence.

    So ComRes will give some heart to Brown Central though the dramatic nature of the swing in such a short period might just take the gloss off it.
    # Betting on which pollster which will get it most right: The latest PaddyPower prices are: 5/2 YouGov; 3/1 ICM; 3/1 Angus Reid; 9/2 Populus; 9/2 MORI; 5/1 Comres.
    # UPDATE: The detailed ComRes figures are now out – here.
    Mike Smithson

  • cynic

    Paul

    You sound desperate but don’t worry. A good Tory Government will soon sort your problems out

  • Exchanging frightened rabbits/ignorant and arrogant puppets fronting a scam still leaves a scam for frightened rabbits and ignorant and arrogant puppets to front for you cannot deny that the following is true …… http://tinyurl.com/GreatGamePawns

    However …… it need not be so whenever you have Control of IT and Media for Global Edutainment ….. Cameron’s rabbit out of the hat is something which Uncle Sam will be paying top price for too, and thinking that they have it for next to nothing even whenever it costs them a small fortune for its license to use/thrill, for you can be sure that it is well known in the Enlightened East, where all the Western IOUs/Debts are held.

    I of course refer to this stealthy gem which you will not be privy to, because you are either not yet qualified nor carefully vetted to know more than is occasionally fed to you …..

    [quote]Advanced IntelAIgent Virtual Defence … the Perfect Toff Attack Weapon

    Mr Cameron/Dave the Rave would do very well to question Labour on what they are going to do with the new HyperRadioProActive IT Sector with its Extremely Disruptive Virtual Facilities which CyberIntelAIgent Security Operations are Engaged to Control/Patrol/Deliver …… before the Question is asked of him, tempting him to also deny any Knowledge of the Program and appear equally as Ignorant and Out of Touch with Future Realities as Labour.

    Should the Government deny any Knowledge of the Sector and the Difficulties IT Causes and/or can Cause, then the Denial can be Easily Proven a Blatant Lie and the Government will be forced to Reconsider their Position and be required to Answer the Question or lose all Credibility in being Able to Govern in a Future Information Rich Age Environment.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-david-cameron-needs-to-reclaim-the-centre-ground-1847237.html [/quote]

    And don’t bother asking Marty or Gerry or Peter or Nigel about it either and embarrassing them unless you want to present them with the temptation to say that it is all news and double Dutch to them, for an email they have received will tell y’all a different tale.

    Make 2010 a Year to Remember, and Remember …. Who Dares Win Wins …… and Everyone, Republican or otherwise, has their own particular part to play. No part is too great or too small; no one is too old or too young to do something.