Comfortable Labour hold….

Strange headline but an excellent Labour result in Glasgow North East:Labour – 12,231 votes (59.39%)
SNP – 4,120 votes (20%)
Tory – 1,075 votes (5.22%)
BNP – 1,013 votes (4.92%)
Solidarity – 794 votes (3.86%)
Lib Dems – 474 votes (2.30%)
Greens – 332 votes (1.6%)
Jury (Smeaton) 258 votes(1.2%)
SSP – 152 (0.7%)
Mickey HUGHES Ind 54 (0.3%)
SLP 47 (0.2%)
Mev BROWN Ind 32 (0.2%)
TILT 13 (0.1%)

Turnout at 33,2% lowest ever in a Scottish by-election. Apart from SNP disappointment the BNP vote high, Lib Dems apalling and the Smeaton vote derisory. This is Glasgow but are the Tories heading for Government when they can barely hold their deposit in a parliamentary by-election??

  • Labour retains its grip in Scotland.

  • English Republic

    One more piece of government voting fodder to meddle in England’s affairs.

  • Panic, These Ones Likes It Up Em.

    You would wonder why the electorate in such a constituency would remain loyal to labour continually.

    Surely it would be to their own advantage to let labour know that they are not to be taken for granted.

    Its a bit like for example a lot of companies nowadays (insurers as an example) actually take their loyal customers for granted and give better deals to new customers,

    Electorates must somehow become more sophisticated and get more for their vote.

    This is probably why the Consevatives and Labour are so fond of first past the post voting.
    It is really more of a referendom and gives the voter the least possible amount of say.

    The electorate of Glasgow North East would have been much better off shopping around than giving undying loyalty to the Labour brand.
    This undying loyalty will be rewarded with Labour taking them for granted and no reason to up their performance in this constituency.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Panic,

    I have similar thoughts. There were plenty of other candidates on the left, but people opted not to plump for them.

    The only thing preventing me from gloating about the Tories is the fact that the Lib Dem candidate did worse πŸ™‚

  • DR

    I think the people of Glasgow dont like to be told what to do by the establishment, which strangely dosnt mean the Labour Government who are weak atm. but the MSM and the Socttish SNP goverment who were predicting another bloody nose for Gordon, telling Glaswegians they they are gonig to do something just makes them do the opposite. As for the tory vote, I think they probably did lose their deposite there in the past, and at the height of Blair Mania Labour probably lost deposits in some strong Tory areas. Think we need a good swingometer to judge this one!

  • Rory Carr

    The only thing preventing me from gloating about the Tories is the fact that the Lib Dem candidate did worse πŸ™‚

    That’s all right, Comrade, I am more than happy to have a good gloat at the LibDems in your stead and, in fact, on any day of the week come to that.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Did the BNP field a candidate last time? Presumably they pick up votes from Tories and Labour.

  • disninterested oberserver

    Truely disasterous result for the SNP. On this result they might lose seats at a GE.
    Re the Tories – they havent fought this seat (against Speaker) for 2 elections and it is never likely to be strong territory for them
    Overall Conservatives will be delighted with the result as it means Gordon remains tied to the helm!

  • Dewi

    Swings are difficult. As DO states Tories or Lib Dems didn’t stand whilst MP was speaker. Not great for SNP but not a disaster.
    Anyone else share the view that the Sun’s terribly distasteful coverage of Brown’s phone call to a bereaved parent backfired? One of the lowest stunts I can recall.

  • DR

    I think alot of the Sun’s and it likes coverage backfired and and the people gathered round one of their own, plus the SNP star is tarnished if not fading yet.
    Interestingly the Conservative vote is quite similar to the Scottish Unionist vote the last time, but we dont know the local issues or demographic changes either, remember Lord Martin once got 74% of the vote I think.
    Not sure if delgihted is the right word but I would guess the Tories are happy enough this morning, time is thier biggest enemy ATM.

  • oneill

    A by-election in the dying days of an incredibly unpopular government and we get a 33.2% turnout?

    Not being able to provoke or motivate a higher level of interest, not the fact that Labour held a secure seat, was the disaster for the main opposition party in Scotland. How close the BNP came to grabbing third place is a warning also for all the main parties- on that kind of showing they could well grab a seat at the next Holyrood elections.

  • Garza

    Labout has won this seat for the last 74 years. They were always going to win it, rain or sunshine.

    Glasgow North East is not Conservative or Liberal country.

    Surprised that the SNP did so badly though.

  • K McLaughlin

    This is the same NL strategy as used at Glenrothes last year.
    Pretend to be an opposition party and attack the SNP candidate on some aspect of the SNP’s Holyrood policies, even though the bye-elections are for Westminster. This stops debate focussing on really damaging stuff like New Labour’s appalling record in office (e.g. economic mismanagement, Iraq, Afghanistan, sleaze, etc.). A tame local media will assist in this diversion.
    Next, flood the constituency with activists from all over the UK.
    Finally, trot out the old postal votes stunt and many last minute voter registrations, just to make sure!
    At next year’s UK general election, New Labour will not be able to do ANY of this. Over 85% of the UK electorate live in England where there will be media scrutiny and hostile reporting, not the fawning and uncritical treatment they get in Scotland and the principal opposition (the Tories of course ) will be much better funded than the SNP. In addition, NL’s remaining activists will be back in their own constituencies trying to stop the rot.
    In short, the last 2 Scottish bye elections were victories which NL won by strategies only open to them in Scotland. They are holding actions on the road to ultimate defeat in 2010, not the start of a comeback.
    PS I do know the area where last night’s election was contested very well.
    I used to live there.
    Springburn, Possilpark, Sight|hill etc. are monuments to Labour/New Labour in control.
    Sorry folks, but this constituency really is a midden.

  • DR

    K McL,
    Setting aside the fact that it has a snowballs chance of happening, but if they had elected a Tory MP do you think they could make a real difference? 70yrs of voting Labour dosnt seem to have worked.

  • The SNP share of the vote increased from 17.7% to 20% despite the arrival of the Conservatives and the LibDems who didn’t oppose the speaker. The departure of Socialist Labour who had a 14.5% share in 2005 may have benefited Labour.

  • Dewi

    “The departure of Socialist Labour” – didn’t actually depart Nevin – just got 47 votes!!!

  • DR

    its seems the Unionist candidate picked up the Tory (or dare I say Orange vote!) the last time round, plus some people prob voted for Martin as Speaker who mite have voted SNP this time.

  • I checked and missed that, Dewi πŸ™‚ Still, I was only out by 0.2% πŸ˜‰

  • K McLaughlin

    re. post by DR 23 Nov 09 12:24PM.
    In a constituency like this, which has a long history of unthinking, uncritical support for Labour/New Labour and has the appalling social deprivation statistics that go with it, the election of an MP from any party (fascist and commie nutters excepted) other than Labour would be welcome – even the Tories. It would at least be evidence of some kind of mental life in the electorate in that they had changed their minds on an important subject. It would of course make little immediate difference to people’s lives but once you start to think for yourself, it could be habit forming.
    As it is, the key statistic of this election – to me at any rate – is the record low turnout.
    It would seem to indicate that most of the electorate here are so blinkered that they can only envisage two courses of action on election day voting Labour or not voting at all.
    I cannot offer any explanation for this.
    It cannot be healthy.

  • Greenflag

    Dewi ,

    I’m inexpert on Scottish politics other than a broad knowledge that it’s been traditionally Labour dominate since paleolithic times .

    It’s clear the Scots continue to prefer fried mars bars and a shorter life expectancy to judge by the miniscule ‘green ‘ vote . And who are ‘Solidarity’ a Polish Scottish minority party ? And TILT ?

    I suspect Gordon Brown will get as much relief from this result as a victim of jack the ripper would have being stabbed 35 times instead of 36 πŸ˜‰

    Predicting general election results from by elections is a hazardous undertaking but I’ll have a go . I’ll predict that Labour will hold this seat in the coming election and I’ll also predict that the Tories will hold Chelsea , Kensington and Tunbridge wells πŸ˜‰

    There might have been a higher turnout were it not so close to the ‘real ‘ election !

  • Dewi

    Solidarity a Tommy Sheridan 2006 breakaway from the Scottish socialist party (Sheridan the candidate this time)
    You’ve got me on TILT – I’ll do some digging…

  • Dewi

    There you go!

    “The unique Individuals Movement may be able to TILT the balance of power if enough of the
    non-voters who represent the biggest single party in Scotland vote.”

    http://www.tiltparty.org/

  • Greenflag

    K.McLaughlin ,

    ‘It would seem to indicate that most of the electorate here are so blinkered that they can only envisage two courses of action on election day voting Labour or not voting at all.
    I cannot offer any explanation for this.

    Fear of change ? Toryphobia ? lingering after effects of thatcherdom ? No confidence in the present and less confidence in would be replacements.

    ‘It cannot be healthy.”

    Fried mars mars with no greens washed down by copious amounts of alcohol in a climate renowned for very brief appearances of Sol in a cloudless sky would by definition not be healthy .

    ‘If you always do what you always did-
    You’ll always get what you always got ‘

    This piece of colloquial wisdom could of course be equally applied to those who have voted for the DUP/UUP/SF/SDLP/ in the land that time forgot across the north channel.

    Perhaps we need to elect a new people ?

  • Dewi

    There is a structural reason for such a low turnout in such seats. Many SNP canvassers reported on the difficulty in matching the register to people who answered the door. Lots of mobilty in inner city poor places where there are a lot of unsettled people.

  • greenflag

    Dewi ,

    Thanks .

    So the broad left can choose between Labour , Solidarity, SSP, and SLP which together totalled 64% of the vote . If you add in a third at least the SNP vote say 7% as being more labour than tory and 75% of the BNP Vote the same i.e another 3% then that would bring the potential ‘left’ vote to 74% of the turnout+

    Any Tory candidate in that constituency should be prepared for ‘rejection ‘ I’d guess

  • K McLaughlin

    Not another candidate for membership of the “Sock a Jock” club!
    Why stop at cheap cracks about fried Mars Bars, crappy climate and drink sodden inhabitants?
    If you really want to join you must try harder.
    In order to qualify for full membership, you must also make one reference to at least three of the following in the course of your outburst:-
    – “chips on shoulders”
    – “poncing off the English taxpayers”
    – “torn faced ingrates”
    – “junkies”
    – “sweaties” (rhyming slang)
    – “porage wogs”
    Seriously, please butt out of this argument unless you have something intelligent to say.
    My supply of heavy handed sarcasm is nearly exhausted.
    I have nothing further to add to this discussion.

  • laboutNIman

    This is a firm showing at a single issue party offering only a single issue to the electorate during times of hardship are going to fail… Well, they will everywhere apart from norn iron

  • Rory Carr

    “…the electorate here are so blinkered that they can only envisage two courses of action on election day voting Labour or not voting at all.”

    Same choice that faces the rest of us then, isn’t it? We may be driven to despair by the despicable actions of New Labour and its rape of Labour Party democracy but we are not yet so befuddled as to commit complete political suicide by voting Tory or (shudder!), LibDem. Are we now?

  • DC

    The choice this time round was:

    economy versus constitution

    And economy won.

    And Sammy the BNP did field a candidate last time round as far as I heard on TV last night.

    Apathy is rife re the low turn out, but the detestation of all things Tory and general confusion with the Liberals means Labour is the best of a bad bunch at the mo.

    Good result for Labour.

  • Dewi

    “And Sammy the BNP did field a candidate last time round as far as I heard on TV last night.”
    Yep – last time:

    Speaker: 15153 (53.3%)
    SNP: 5019 (17.7%)
    Socialist Labour: 4036 (14.2%)
    SSP: 1402 (4.9%)
    Scot Unionist: 1266 (4.5%)
    BNP: 920 (3.2%)
    Independent: 622 (2.2%)

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    ta but

  • DC

    …are you pausing at length to pose something profound, another one of your pearls of wisdom…

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    DC

    U TALKING TO ME?

  • DC

    yes

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    ‘but’ or ‘butty’ is the Welsh (English) term for a friend.

    I count Dewi as such as I win so many rugby bets with him.

    p.s. Samoa will hopefully put the frightners up ’em later this evening.

  • DC

    Oh, i was waiting for an anti-tory attack or something re but.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    ‘mon samoa

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    lucky, lucky, lucky Wales