Polls, polls, polls..

Tomorrow’s Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post looks interesting. Although, how much so may depend on who you believe. On Lisbon II, IOL reports [PA report? – Ed] “23% say they will vote against the EU reform measures, while 15% are still undecided ahead of the ballot on October 2” – leaving 62% saying ‘Yes’. But RTÉ gives different figures

The results show support for Lisbon holding up, with 52% of adults saying they will vote for the Treaty, 25% saying they will vote against and 23% are undecided.

Adds Red C’s Richard Colwell filters the results.On party support only iol, and Irish Election, have the figures.

Business Post poll; FF 24 +3. FG 33 -1. Lab 19 +1. GP 5 +1. SF 8 -2. Ind 11 -2.

According to the RTÉ report – “Red C surveyed more than 1,000 voters around the country on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for the poll.”

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  • Jack Ryan

    Wonder will Ganley give No’s a boost? I just get a feeling that people are voting Yes out of fear economically but then did they vote no in Lisbon 2 out of fear of abortion, taxation change, military consequences!

  • Dave

    I recall Greenflag stating that he didn’t know a single person who intended to vote No in the in the June 12th referendum. I told him he should get out of house and meet humans other than his longsuffering parents because the result would be a 55% majority No vote – although .

    A Red C opinion poll taken on 7 June 2008 showed 42% In favour; 39% against, and 19% undecided. Whereas a TNS/mrbi opinion poll taken on 5 June 2008 showed 30% in favour; 35% against, and 35% undecided.

    This time around, the Yes vote will be in the majority. That has little to do with government scaremongering and misinformation (e.g. deliberately misleading the public to believe that the consequences of rejecting the treaty would be either ejection from the EU or demotion to the second-class status of a two-tier EU, and fraudulently misrepresenting the treaty as a fiscal stimulus package, etc).

    Nope, it is simply because the middle class voters realise that EU arse must be lavishly tongued if the ECB is to continue propping up the Irish banks and thereby propping up said middle class voters. That’s how Scotland was bought after all.

    The CSO published the latest figures on Ireland’s external debt on 31 March 2009. It shows that the Central Bank (Monetary Authority) has added 95 billion to it in the 9 months from June 30 2008 to March 31 2009 while lenders (Monetary Financial Institutions) have reduced their share of the external debt from 814 billion to 723 billion during the same period. In other words, the lenders are only able to meet their repayment on their short term debt within the eurosystem because this arrangement.

    The total increase in the external debt, by the way, was 32 billion (bringing it up to a grand total of 1,693 billion (or 1.69 trillion). Before Ireland joined the eurosystem, the external debt stood at 11 billion punts a mere 10 years go. So, Ireland traded its actual Celtic Tiger for a credit card wherein it became, err, slightly overdrawn. Still, I’m sure with such a healthy economy, Ireland will have no problem generating the wealth to repay its modest 1.69 trillion overdraft.

  • Dave
  • James O’Brien

    nothing about the appointment of the special envoy to Northern Ireland Declan Kelly –the one you were all chortling about would never happen? And an announcement imminent that Hillary will visit too?Something else you were only too happy to debunk –and she is going to take on Ireland as she will announce –and she;s the first Secretary of State to visit since her husband’s administration —- now what part of you got this wrong don’t you understand?
    C’mon admit you and Niall Stanage and his piece in Irish Times you were so highly praising was completely wrong

  • The figures including all voters are 52% yes, 25% no. The 62% figure comes from only including those who say they are “very likely” to vote. I think Red C are wrong to run with the 62% figure. Last year they got Lisbon I dead wrong by consistently polling the yes side ahead. I would recommend TNS-MRBI for accuracy, They were the only polling-company to put the no side ahead.

    Another nugget: I have been informed that Red C are working for FF and “Ireland for Europe” this year, and have refused requests to work for the “No” side. Is an agenda being pushed by the Business Post? I think it very misleading indeed to claim, as the SBP website does in the breakingnews section, that ‘more than six out of ten’ say they will vote yes, without mentioning that these are only among those “very likely” to vote. When I texted my fanatically pro-Lisbon friend Colm on them, I was met with disbelief. He feels it will be much closer than that. Also, the boards.ie poll, which correctly gave the no side 54% last time, has the no side on 52% to 44% for the no side. This poll will make me more determined to get out and vote no, and may make some yes voters complacent. If it’s defeated again Red C will have a monumental amount of egg on their face. The way in which our elites are almost 100% (except some unions and the Murdoch Press and SF) for Lisbon speaks to the culture of patronage in the EU institutions for compliant elites looking for a plush office and lavish expenses/salary in Brussels. EU institutions are packed with so-called ‘civic-society’ figures including trade-union, business, academic, farming elites. So there is a conflict of interest going on here that needs to be pointed out. It feels very much like 1800, when Grattan’s Parliament was induced with cash to vote itself out of existence. I will say one thing though. UKIP were very badly advised in getting involved. They fell into a trap the yes camp had set for them. I repeatedly attempted to dissuade them but it did no good. But since my last email after the Reuters debate, I have heard not a peep out of them so perhaps they are belatedly realising they should keep out.

  • Dave, I don’t doubt that your interpretations of the motives of yes voters are substantially true, but I do dispute the premise that the ECB is going to turn off the tap if we vote no. They didn’t do that for the French or the Dutch when they rejected the EU Constitution. The reality is that if the ECB were to turn off the tap to a member state, it would provoke capital flight from the Eurozone, as the markets would regard it as a sign the ECB would put partisan politics before the survival of the Eurozone financial-services sector. They can’t do that to one member state and expect the markets to see it as a purely national problem for that State.

    The fact that they have provided this liquidity for Irish banks shows that the threats to do so are idle threats. In fact, the ECB hasn’t even made any threats whatsoever. In the last week, Catherine Day (head of EU Commission civil service) and Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (reported last Monday in Irish Times) both promised Ireland that it would not be punished for a second no vote:

    “There will be no discrimination against Irish people if there is a No vote. You will not hear from me any threat to Ireland.” (Barroso)

    “the EU is not punitive and there would be no question of throwing Ireland out [of the EU] or taking repercussions” against the State.”(Catherine Day)

  • Erasmus

    I intend voting yes because of the calibre of people in the public ‘no’ camp.

  • Dave

    Erasmus, that is a very stupid reason to approve a wide-ranging treaty.

    Brian, I didn’t say that it would, rather that the view of middle-class voters is that it will. They generally have a view that the ECB is trying to buy their support, and they’re more than willing to sell it. That’s post-nationalism for you.

    The ECB is desperately trying to ameliorate the liquidy problems with the eurozone that its own expansionist monetary policies have created. Hence it is currently facilitating all the liquidity that eurozone countries require (making €440 billion available). In effect, it is attempting to solve problems created by expansionist monetary policies with expansionist monetary policies, but simply adding more debt to the external debts of eurozone states. It can’t do that indefinately, of course.

    Under NAMA, the government bonds given to the banks are also to be redeemed for cash over at the ECB.

  • dunreavynomore

    “nothing about the appointment of the special envoy to Northern Ireland Declan Kelly” James O’Brien.

    I think I read somewhere that this is an ‘economic envoy’so perhaps a better term would be ‘salesman.’

  • Another interesting nugget in the poll is the : the likely voting intentions of the undecideds. Red C asked them how they voted last year:

    “The final factor we need to understand in more detail, when trying to predict the likely future outcome, is how those people who are still undecided may vote. Will they fall out the same as those who are decided, or will they be biased towards either the Yes or No camps?

    In the poll, people were asked how they voted at the last referendum, which allows an analysis of how undecided voters ultimately voted last time. In total, 48 per cent of those undecided at present voted No last time, while 11 per cent voted Yes and 41 per cent did not vote.

    If we were to reallocate this percentage of the undecided voters across the two camps, we could potentially end up with 61 per cent in the Yes camp and 39 per cent in the No camp. This would still be a victory for Yes campaigners, but a much closer one than the basic figures suggest.”