Sinn Fein gets bounce in latest polls

The latest Red C/ Sunday Business Post poll indicates a tighter race may be on the cards in this year’s 26 county elections than some may have suspected. The gap between the current governing parties and Fine Gael/ Labour has been cut to 4 points. Apart from that, Sinn Fein are the big movers in the poll, up three points to 10%, clearly benefitting from the northern election triumph and the Ard Fheis exposure. With the election scheduled for some time in May/ June, perhaps the simultaneous launch of a northern Executive- complete with accompanying media exposure- may work out to be a nice electoral present from Ian Paisley for republicans!The results are: Fianna Fail 36% (down 2%), Fine Gael 23% (up 1%), Labour 12% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 10% (up 3%), Greens 8% (no change), PDs 3% (down 1%) and Independents 8% (up 1%.)

  • SuperSoupy

    As mentioned elswhere local Cork paper, the Evening Echo, is predicting SF gains in Cork East and Cork North Central from their local polling.

    The TirConaill Tribune in Donegal has reported local polling predicts one guaranteed SF gain and the other seat very likely.

  • David Latimer

    Can someone please explain why anyone in the ROI would want to vote for a bunch of terrorist apologists with looney left policies? Seriously I’m baffled.

  • I’m not sure SF can win at all in the southern elections. SF gains will only entrench the view that the South is sympathetic to the IRA campaign of “ethnic cleansing” of Protestants in NI, and increase resistance to a UI.

  • willis

    But David

    The PUP are not standing in the South.

  • SuperSoupy

    SF gains in the south have little to do with politics in the north and nothing to do with a retrospective endorsement of the conflict (couched in reactionary Unionist language or otherwise). They reflect how that parties views on how Ireland should be governed and develop are being endorsed by an increasing number of people.

    Socialism and Republicanism are two things that no other party promotes in a credible way anywhere in Ireland.

    (you think it was the late 70s reading some of the crap above)

  • Henry94

    David Latimer

    I’ll be voting Sinn Fein in the south because they are the only party that can be taken seriously on the national question, they are organised on an all-Ireland basis, work extremely hard on the ground, try to represent people who the establishment parties have abandoned, advocate a model of society that is based on more than greed are led by people of enormous courage integrity and vision.

    Furthermore after years of looney right policies we have an extreme form of what Galbraith described as private affluence and public squalor. The need to address that is being lost in an election campaign that is focussed on an auction of tax cuts for the already comfortable.

    Meanwhile service for autistic children and others in need are not provided or are badly provided.

    Sinn Fein’s policies are not perfect but the voice of Sinn Fein voters needs to be heard in Dail Eireann. And Dail Eireann must itself become open to the elected representatives of all the people on the island. Only Sinn Fein will deliver that.

  • Crataegus

    For the sake of balance the Daily Star Poll for Dublin

    FF 32 (-5 since 2002)
    FG 18 (+4)
    Lab 14 (-2)
    Greens 13 (+5)
    PD 6 (-2)
    SF 7 (-2)

    It could be SF are doing better outside Dublin? Does anyone know?

    I think that both SF and Greens will make gains but nothing spectacular. For them to gain it also requires someone to lose and when you start to ask who and where it looks a lot more difficult. If both were to double their representation they would be doing very well. It really depends how each are doing in their target constituencies.

  • Richard Dowling

    Chris, they are only ’26 county’ elections to those who are contemptuous of our Republic. That, of course, includes Sinn Fein — that sly bunch of chancers which is represented by a little clique of supercillious twits in our Parliament, the Dail. A Dail, incidentally which is still anathema to the IRA and Sinn Fein, whose own constitution explicitly rejects its legitimacy. Even the DUP doesn’t go that far, and pays us the compliment of telling us to mind our own affairs when this country tries to muddy the waters of territorial jurisdiction. After all, the GFA (Good Friday Agreement) allowed us to ratify our aspirational differences while rejecting the notion that Northern Ireland could be compelled to reject its status within the United Kingdom in favour of a United Ireland.
    This is an area which the Republican family’s Gerry Adams and his ‘silent’ partner P O Neill have become so adept at exploiting.

    If Ian Paisley keeps them on tenterhooks till well after Easter, so much the better. Sinn Fein-IRA bullied its way to power. As a Catholic and a Republican, I reject the claim (explicit or implicit) that they represent me in any way. Or that calling themselves an All-Ireland party, absolves them of legal or constitutional
    responsibility … in either jurisdiction.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Dowling,

    as an alleged catholic or indeed republican your very public political masturbation is of little relevance. Like the rest of us you are merely asked to respect the ballot box.

  • David Latimer

    Henry94: ”I’ll be voting Sinn Fein in the south because they are the only party that can be taken seriously on the national question”

    Funny that Henry — I assumed that the GFA provided for continued partition until a NI majority voted otherwise. Given SFs belligerence towards everything Unionist, from Union flags to bands playing in Botanic Gardens, they seem determined to delay that result for as long as possible. In many ways, they ARE the single largest obstacle to a UI.

    ”they are organised on an all-Ireland basis”

    So what?

    ”work extremely hard on the ground”
    I can’t speak for the ROI, but they certainly work hard to divide communities and get their vote out on the day.

    ”try to represent people who the establishment parties have abandoned”

    eg Ex-prisoners, dead terrorists, hunger strikers, bank robbers, fuel smugglers…

    ”advocate a model of society that is based on more than greed are led by people of enormous courage integrity and vision.”

    Name me any exclusively Socialist society currently in existence that is not exemplified by uncontrolled greed at the top.
    Courage and integrity???? This bunch have blown and shot their perceived enemies and supposed own community to pieces and they’ve sold their supporters down the river at every turn. Decommissioning, entering the Dail, entering Stormont to administer British rule, supporting the NI police force….this represents integrity?
    SF may have a vision, but other than meaningless platitudes about an ‘Ireland of equals’ and ‘advancing the process’, it’s impossible to tell exactly what it is.

  • David Latimer

    Richard: ”As a Catholic and a Republican, I reject the claim (explicit or implicit) that they represent me in any way.”

    That’s more than fair Richard. SF have made it clear that they are not a Roman Catholic party. Their stance on abortion and gay rights, as well as their refusal to respect the recent Pope’s death are ample proof.
    They have sold out virtually all their Republican credentials and are extremely unlikely to hasten a UI, so voting for them is, on the face of it, completely pointless.

  • SuperSoupy

    If Dowling and Latimer’s only response to a positive SF poll is vitriol and abuse there clearly isn’t any intellectual challenge to the growth of republicanism and Socialism in Ireland.

    The whingers were soundly beaten in the north and this pathetic 26 county version of the Slugger electoral troll without substance will disappear just like the last crop of ‘fly poster’ anger merchants.

    See you the other side of the elections. Well I won’t, you’ll disappear like the last crop of slabbers.

    Slugger O’Toole facilitating electoral trolls since the year dot and they always disappear after beaten, humiliated and wrong

  • BeardyBoy

    Just before the last assembly election a SF spokeswoman said that they were against the extension of the 1967 act to Ireland – and a good thing too so I am afraid that charge cannot be levelled at them now

  • Brian Boru

    Crataegus I just wanna correct you on something. The PD vote is only down 1% in Dublin according to the Daily Star poll and the party has said it is glad it’s holding its 1st pref vote from 2002. Someone on politics.ie said that private-polls reportedly show Deputy-Leader Liz O’Donnell around 11% – she held that seat on 9.39% in 1997. Harney’s chances of holding on in DMW are aided by the addition of a 4th seat there, and McDowell has not fallen below 16% in private-polling since becoming leader. The only seat I would have concerns about in Dublin would be Dun Laoghaire – historically the seat of the 2 FG stalwarts WT and Liam Cosgrave – which for the first time returned not one FG TD in 2002. Just setting the record straight there.

    I think the recovery of the SF vote will secure the party extra seats in Donegal (2). I have also heard that a newspaper poll some weeks back in the new Roscommon-South Leitrim has SF topping the poll. However we’ll need to see the regional-breakdowns of the Red C poll in order to clarify how close it tallies the Dublin poll in the Star, because the latter has SF down from 9% to 6% there, which would stymie the hoped-for breakthrough in Dublin Central, where a local poll (IMS) last yr gave the last seat to Patricia McKenna (Green).

    The problem for the Rainbow is that even if these were the actual results on polling-day, their vote is fragmented between 3 parties (including Greens who are not even officially part of it but are in all but name) which may hurt inter-Rainbow transfers, thus denying them as many seats as the combined FF-PD ticket. The Rainbow parties are competing for seats aswell. For example a recent local poll in Carlow-Kilkenny for the umpteenth time has shown FG will not gain a second seat there (John Paul Phelan may oust senior colleague Phil Hogan) but Labour is likely to lose their seat to Green Mary White. FG currently have 32 seats, Labour 21 and the Greens 6. They will need a net gain of 24 seats to hold a Dail majority. FG is arguably repeating some of the mistakes of 2002 in terms of vote-management in certain constituencies. Examples: Clare where they are running 4 (!) candidates in a 4-seater constituency. A local poll last yr showed that they would only hold Pat Breen’s seat and make no gains. And why? Because their candidate-strategy is salami-slicing their vote, handing the last seat to Brendan Daly. The former-FF Independent James Breen is seen as a shoe-in though less so than in 2002.

    On SF’s 10%, don’t be deceived. They would make gains on this, but nothing like the 16 or so seats a more mainstream party would on that rating e.g. Labour in 1997 got 17. The reason as ever is that despite their growth, they remain transfer-repellent to the vast majority of southern-voters. I think one reason for this, other than the obvious, relates to their unreconstructed 1970’s-style economic policies e.g. raising corporation-tax to 17.5%, raising CGT. None of the parties down here will publicly entertain entering govt with them. However power is FF’s ‘drug’ and it would be very interesting to see what would happen if SF were FF’s only path to a 3rd term.

  • Greenflag

    DL,

    ‘Seriously I’m baffled.’

    Better to have SF in politics and in the Dail than outside . Thanks to the DUP’s self inflicted gyrations SF will benefit either way from the present stand off with the Assembly in NI . If Hain pulls the plug SF will be rewarded by a small percentage of the electorate for gong the ‘democratic’ road in NI as far as they could . Most people in the Republic have few illusions about Paisley and the DUP. If the Assembly is eventually birthed through a last minute caesarean then SF will get extra votes based on their ‘achievement’ particularly in constituencies close to the Border and in Dublin and Cork among the 20% of the electorate that fit into the left/republican vote.

    Bertie has now raised the ante at the FF Ard Fheis and I suspect that the voters will on the day vote for a return of the present government coalition . FG do not have the leadership . I don’t expect to see SF in any Government coalition even though they may gain a couple of seats . Bertie has become markedly more Green in recent days and is now advancing the Australian ‘green’ light bulb policy in the public sector -this will save 5% on electricity costs and reduce CO 2 emissions .

    Now that our ‘socialist’ Party are in favour of reducing taxes and our ‘conservatives’ are intent on increasing the senior citizen’s pension to 300 euros a week we may be seeing a return to the electoral bidding contests of the mid 1980’s .

    FF would sell their mother’s into prostitution to maintain power . The electorate has been through this before and rather than see the elderly dear on the streets they’ll do the necessary on election day – at least this time out .IMO

  • Greenflag

    One thing is certain however in the upcoming election in the Republic . The electorate will be sure to get a government unlike their fellow islanders in Northern Ireland who three weeks after the election and following I don’t know how many postponements/suspensions /etc still don’t know !

    Somebody on slugger said that the people of NI would never buy a pig in a poke . It appears they have voted for one !

  • Crataegus

    Brian

    On other threads we have agreed that the problem with the rainbow is they are in competition for the same votes. Also neither FG or Labour seem to be making any real ground in increasing their share of the vote. At present it looks like FF will be forming the next government but with who?

    One problem for FF is the seat bonus they got in the last election. A small drop in percentage share of the vote could bring a disproportionate number of loses.

    I have no doubt that SF will gain seats certainly 1 in Donegal, I am not sure how the hospital campaign will run up there. In Dublin 2 possibly 3, polls in Cork indicate the possibility of gains and there are Waterford and Wexford. It is unlikely that all possibilities will fall into place but they should be around say 10 perhaps more on a good day.

    With regards Greens you would really need to know what they are up to in each constituency. But I think the likely gains are Galway West, Carlow Kilkenny, Wicklow and two or possibly 3 in Dublin. I assume they have hopes in places like Louth and Clare but I don’t see it, but one never knows and their candidate in Louth appears to be doing well.

    With PDs I agree Dun Laoghaire is a likely loss but still think Mary in mid West will have a hard time. They will hold South East but 50-50 on Liz O’Donnell. I would see Dublin SC as possible Green gain if they are polling at 13% in Dublin. Overall PDs likely to be much reduced and no balancing gains that I can see.

    With regards Carlow Kilkenny I think Labour will hold their seat and FF lose one.

    Early days yet.

  • Cato

    Any Southerners considering voting for Sinn Fein should reflect on how many Irishmen, Irishwomen and Irish children the IRA have killed in the last 40 years and whether their political representatives deserve that vote.
    I would not vote for the political arm of those who bombed Omagh in 1998 and I would not vote for those who strapped Patsy Gillespie into a lorry less than a decade earlier, held his family hostage and ordered him to drive to his own death at an army base.

  • Crataegus

    Cato

    I would not vote for those who strapped Patsy Gillespie into a lorry less than a decade earlier, held his family hostage and ordered him to drive to his own death at an army base.

    Nor would I, and the fact that so many do says a lot about dear old Ireland. An inclusive Ireland of equals.

  • NickyG

    …or even vote for those who perpetrated the massacrs at Drumboe or Carchiveen.. oh, wait.. there’s hardly anyone left to cast a vote for.

    I’m sure the great British public will also be thinking of Dresden and the Belgrano with guilt sodden hearts as they drop thier ballots in to the box for their respective evildoing party candidate.

  • Crataegus

    MickyG

    Two wrongs don’t make a right and I didn’t have the opportunity to not vote for the Black Prince either.

    Dresden really bad therefore La Mon OK ?

  • SuperSoupy

    Do you people never learn? You tried this just a few weeks ago in another election and it failed miserably then.

    Elections are fought today not a decade or two ago.

    Will the dissident ‘characters’ reappear to try their failed tactics of a few weeks ago too?

  • Crataegus

    SuperSoupy

    Elections are fought today not a decade or two ago.

    Yes SuperSoupy but do I vote for someone, who is willing to murder, or who has murdered, when I have alternatives is the question in the here and now.

    Call me picky, but I wouldn’t vote for Blair, Margret or quite a few politicians in NI.

    It is just me, but obviously many in NI have different standards or perhaps they don’t consider some of those that were murdered as people?

  • Wilde Rover

    “I would not vote for the political arm of those who bombed Omagh in 1998”

    I wasn’t aware that the 32 County Sovereignty Movement is expected to make a big hit in the upcoming elections.

    From its inception as the Free State to its current incarnation as a republic, the electorate has always shied away from electing people who are still murdering/killing, but it has never had a problem with electing people who murdered/killed in the past.

    The birth of a republic usually involves murderers/killers. The people of the newly created USA had no qualms of conscience when electing those who did the dirty work during their liberation.

    Abraham Lincoln set about the business of murdering/killing to preserve the republic, and to prove that a republic could survive a civil war.

    As for the most successful party of former-murderers/killers in the Republic of Ireland, I’m pretty sure FF could spin a FF/SF coalition if they wanted to.

    They would have to do a rapid panic stations spin on the economic question. SF would get the “social” ministries and nowhere near economic policy.

    The claims of “rehabilitating SF for real government” by a party that has gone down this route already would be the relaxed academic spin.

    And the hardcore FF majoritist purists would be able to imagine themselves in some type of green majority government.

    However, despite the potential numbers advantage of SF, I think FF would prefer to hold onto the PDs if possible.

    The reason being the PDs are still better value even with less numbers than SF.

    And that has nothing to do with murdering/killing, that’s down to what’s best for the Celtic Tiger (and keeping FF in government, obviously).

  • iano

    “‘’try to represent people who the establishment parties have abandoned’’

    eg Ex-prisoners, dead terrorists, hunger strikers, bank robbers, fuel smugglers…”

    The people of Rossport who have seen forestry land given away for free and a pipeline built too close to houses in contravention to all international standards.

    Those people who were told that they could not object to being called liars by an Indian doctor on the basis that a middle class medical professional must be stood up for by other members of his profession.

  • Richard Dowling

    As a Christian, the only quality I need is that I be a sinner. To join your outfit, it seems you have to claim to be a ‘good’ republican … and a ‘shinner’. I wouldn’t trade my status (lowly though it be) for ANYTHING you have to offer, Mr McLarnon. Not in a million years.