I’ll stick my neck out and say it looks like a Unionist majority Executive. My prediction on the 1st preference vote is:
1 PUP
1 Green
38 DUP
17 UUP
28 SF
16 SDLP
7 Alliance
This would give a 6/4 executive split. 4/2 Unionist split and 3/1 Nationalist split. DUP to have 1st and 3rd choice.
Prediction of:
DUP gains in East Londonderry, West Tyrone, Strangford, East Belfast, North Belfast and South Antrim (all at the UUP’s expense) but a loss in West Belfast. SF gains in West Belfast, Lagan Valley, South Antrim and West Tyrone. (1 from DUP, 2 from SDLP and 1 from Independent)
SDLP losses in South Antrim and Lagan Valley (Both to SF).
Alliance gain in south Belfast (on paper at UUP expense but really the DUP’s).
Green gain in North Down (at UKUP expense).
Potential flies to this breakdown, are Deeny pipping the SDLP in West Tyrone. Some chance of SDLP holding on at DUP expense in South Antrim. I am predicting a 2/2 Unionist split in Upper Bann but the DUP could squeeze the 3rd. Alliance transfers could save Cobain in north but Humphrey has the edge. UPDATE: Alliance transfers have brought him closer to Humphrey, it is thought McCord transfers will put Cobain ahead.
My sincere apologies about my poor level of coverage, as well as site problems my internet connection packed up too. F**king Virgin Media.
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