Fair Deal predicts…

I’ll stick my neck out and say it looks like a Unionist majority Executive. My prediction on the 1st preference vote is:
1 PUP
1 Green
38 DUP
17 UUP
28 SF
16 SDLP
7 Alliance
This would give a 6/4 executive split. 4/2 Unionist split and 3/1 Nationalist split. DUP to have 1st and 3rd choice.
Prediction of:
DUP gains in East Londonderry, West Tyrone, Strangford, East Belfast, North Belfast and South Antrim (all at the UUP’s expense) but a loss in West Belfast. SF gains in West Belfast, Lagan Valley, South Antrim and West Tyrone. (1 from DUP, 2 from SDLP and 1 from Independent)
SDLP losses in South Antrim and Lagan Valley (Both to SF).
Alliance gain in south Belfast (on paper at UUP expense but really the DUP’s).
Green gain in North Down (at UKUP expense).

Potential flies to this breakdown, are Deeny pipping the SDLP in West Tyrone. Some chance of SDLP holding on at DUP expense in South Antrim. I am predicting a 2/2 Unionist split in Upper Bann but the DUP could squeeze the 3rd. Alliance transfers could save Cobain in north but Humphrey has the edge. UPDATE: Alliance transfers have brought him closer to Humphrey, it is thought McCord transfers will put Cobain ahead.

My sincere apologies about my poor level of coverage, as well as site problems my internet connection packed up too. F**king Virgin Media.

  • Rory

    Hooray, Fair Deal, at last we are in complete accord – on this at least:

    “F**king Virgin Media”

  • It really makes depressing reading. I wonder will the DUP avoid education again?

  • willowfield

    Would be great if the Greens got in – and also if Anna Lo gets in – the first Chinese legislator in the UK.

  • willowfield

    FD

    How do your predictions stack up against 2003 in terms of the overall unionist/nationalist/other split?

  • Observer

    Gd news for the DUP.

    I trust that the leadership will handle the way forward with great confidence.

  • Anna is a near certaintly, Brian Wilson only slightly less so.

  • GavBelfast

    It’s our very own version of the Balkans: which one’s Tujman and which one’s Milosevic?

    It’s one thing for the extremes to cut a deal, but how do they make it work and create a shared rather than divied-up future?

  • fair_deal

    Willowfield

    Unionism down from 59 to 56 – 1 to SF 1 to Greens and 1 to All
    Nationalism up 2 – 1 from DUP 1 from Ind

    IMO 2 of Unionism’s losses are retrievable with work – South Belfast and West Belfast (SDLP decline allowing DUP return). North Down who the hell knows its always such a mess.

  • J_K

    Still another couple of outside possible SF gains (although very outside) in Upper Bann and Fermanagh South Tyrone.

  • Seems v accurate predication

  • John Farrell

    Nobody likes a sore loser but a sore winner is probably worse.
    DUPs Jim Allister with de Bruin
    Foster with Adams

    the DUP is painting themselves into a corner with the treatment of 26% voters (about 4% less than them) as children of lesser gods.
    also the marginalisation of women within both DUP and UUP
    and the dominance of FreePs within DUP (who prolly think most of the people who actually vote for them are damned for all eternity.

  • PaddyReilly

    One question of interest to me is: what was the total Unionist Percentage of the vote?

    DUP + UUP + UKUP + PUP come to 47.1%.

    If you add Conservative and UKIP it comes to 47.8%.

    But there is a great big undistributed category OTH on 3.2%, which presumably means Kieran Deeney plus assorted headbangers. How many of these are actually Unionists, I wonder. Can anyone help?

  • smcgiff

    Paddy,

    Alliance wold be largely unionist (if it came to it, which is what I presume you mean), albeit soft unionist. Would imagine Alliance would be 75 to 80 % unionist.

  • Paddy from BallyJamesDuff:

    should your question really read… how close a percentage and/or elected members of Assemb subscribe to a UI?

    … where are we regarding the 50% + 1 ?

  • Woofwoof

    PaddyR

    The point to your calculation is…?

  • belfastwhite

    FD

    IMO 2 of Unionism’s losses are retrievable with work – South Belfast and West Belfast (SDLP decline allowing DUP return). North Down who the hell knows its always such a mess.

    Are you forgetting the boundary changes West Belfast? Lagmore to come in would make it difficult for DUP to retake a seat here post 2010 here although this would open up possiblities for Unionism in Lagan Valley. Would offer SF the chance to take 6 out of 6 in the West though! What’s the betting?

  • PaddyReilly

    Smcgiff, I’m afraid I’m not interested in your speculations as to the secondary preferences of Alliance Party voters. I can calculate them myself from transfers. Your calculations count as anecdotal.

    But I am trying to come up with an accurate accessment of the Unionist 1st preference vote. If you find this sinister, sectarian or inexplicable, I’m sorry. Miaw.

  • Valenciano

    Belfastwhite – yes Lagmore will come in but how about the other end? The NI Boundary commission has suspended its work until the super council boundaries are finalised. If you look at the Belfast super council wards, it’s highly probable that 3 out of 4 Greater Shankill ones will be in West, giving 75% of the Shankill to Mrs Dodds as opposed to 60% as now.

    I have serious doubts about Unionists regaining South Belfast. The prevailing trend for some time has been an inexorable swing from Unionists to Nationalists there and adding Carryduff won’t change that.

  • Paddy – I’m sure one of us geeks will get around to this at some point.

    Still too close to call.

    Deeny v Deehan W Tyrone
    Cobain V Humphrey N Belfast
    McCrum v Savage Upper Bann

    All others have a clear favourite.

  • fair_deal

    BW

    1. Please note with work – voter registration and mobilisation work can help Unionism’s position in turns of getting more votes out of the Shankill wards. There are enough votes there for more than a quota as is and about 1500-2000 potential voters to add.
    2. The Lagmore boxes will do the SDLP no favours.
    3. The Unionist loss (just as the victory in 2003) was due more to how the cookie crumbled on the nationalist side. The cookie crumbled right the last time but not this time. If the SDLP decline continues the cookie will crumble to Unionism’s benefit again.

  • Belfastwhite

    According to the BBC site Ulster Unionist Bob Stoker was eliminated in count 0 with clearly more first preference votes than other candidates in counts 4 and 6? Is this a Beeb boob or has Bob been caught fiddling with ballot papers and disqualified>;0P

  • smcgiff

    ‘I can calculate them myself from transfers.’

    But I’m one step ahead of you! Ho! Ho! Ho!

  • Belfastwhite

    FD

    You are still not factoring in the Lagmore (93% turnout apparently) votes for Sinn Fein as well as SDLP which could put them over and above the SDLP and get their transfers could lead to a sixth seat for SF. If Sinn Fein couldn’t manage the sixth seat then I believe SDLP would get the necessary transfers. Still say more hope for Unionist pick up in Lagan Valley if they can manage their vote properly.

  • smcgiff

    FD,

    In the future where you see unionists reclaiming losses are you relying on the SDLP putting forward 3 candidates in a constituency where they should have got one elected!

    Just get over the unionist losses, the results are only going one way! 🙂

  • PaddyReilly

    The Unionist loss (just as the victory in 2003) was due more to how the cookie crumbled on the nationalist side. The cookie crumbled right the last time but not this time. If the SDLP decline continues the cookie will crumble to Unionism’s benefit again.

    In 2003 the combined DUP, UUP, PUP, UKUP first pref vote was 25.6% + 22.7% + 1.2% + 0.7% = 50.2%

    In 2007 it was 47.1%.

    This is the reason for the declining number of Unionist seats, nothing to do with crumbling cookies.

    In this case the appropriate confectionary is not cookies, but crackers.

  • Woofwoof

    PaddyR

    “But I am trying to come up with an accurate accessment of the Unionist 1st preference vote.”

    Why? Surely the power shift this time around is pretty clear to see?

  • Valenciano

    PaddyR, just done the sums and ended up 40 votes short of the BBC figure – can’t be bothered to double check it all so here it is.

    Unionists
    Frazer +Berry +AlanChambers +D Gregg +D Calvert
    +Cedric Wilson + S Peeples 6489 (0.9%)

    Nationalists
    RSF candidates, Hyland, McGeogh, Peggy O’Hara, Martin Cunningham and Paul McGlinchey 8090 (1.2%)

    Others are hard to classify e.g. is Raymond McCord a Unionist? is Deeny a Nationalist on the basis of where he gets his support from? Most of them seem to get their support from Unionists but are cancelled out by the source of Deeny’s votes. So they probably balance out at 7374 (1.1%)

  • PaddyReilly

    Many thanks Valenciano, that was very useful.

  • fair_deal

    BW

    Lagmore makes the 5 SF seats safe but does not guarantee the 6 nat seats. It might make others lives easier if Unionism gave up on the idea of a seat but at 0.88 of a quota there are grounds to continue.

    smcgiff

    One elction result is not the basis for giving up and going home, else nationalism would have packed it in decades ago 😉

  • jamestwo

    Paddy. What about conservatives ,UKIP.

  • Look lads i wouldnt start running off with this oh unionists are disappearing, nationalist will take over tomorrow act.

    Take a long look and you’ll find unionist turnout appears less than nationalists ie we have a differential. It’s not that they don’t exist, they just didnt come out as they could have.

    The go into opposition idea, as much as it will be ignored is probably the best thing I have heard in the midst of this usual entire sectarian carve up of an election.

    Sammy Morse, I ended up going for the bet on the DUP topping the poll in North Down.

  • At the Omagh Count

    Still another couple of outside possible SF gains (although very outside) in Upper Bann and Fermanagh South Tyrone.

    SF wont win 3 in Fermanagh & South Tyrone.

    Their combined vote is only 2.53 quotas. The SDLP have 0.98 quotas between the two candidates so nothing really to come there. Once Currie is eliminated it will take Gallagher within spitting distance of election.

    The combined dissident vote is only 0.2 of a quota and even if it transferred 100% would only take SF to 2.73 quotas.

    The total unionist vote was 3.22 quotas and the DUP has 1.78 of those. Maurice Morrow is currently sitting on 0.77 of a quota after Arlene Foster’s surplus has been transferred. All it needs is for a couple of hundred more of Kenny Donaldson’s votes to transfer to the DUP than to SF to ensure that Maurice Morrow wins the seat.

  • PaddyReilly

    jamestwo, I already counted them

    DUP + UUP + UKUP + PUP come to 47.1%.

    If you add Conservative and UKIP it comes to 47.8%.

  • Cato

    Anyone prepared to make a call on South Antrim? Looks like Burns v Lucas for the last seat?

  • Yokel

    Pondering Dodds in West Belfast. I wonder did the Womble & West Belfast Cultural Society votes come out for her?

    Last time I believe one of their number had a candidate of their own.

  • Rory

    Paddy Reilly

    I did so much enjoy your scientific precision with the particulars of this one election and the confidence of your prediction.

    It was like the best of good poetry – clear, clean and acceptable as truth. I have little doubt but that you are right and await the confirmation.

  • Yokel

    Lucas at a pinch.

  • Valenciano

    Lucas for South Antrim. He’s slightly ahead and there are over 3300 UUP/UKUP transfers going spare and only 1900 SDLP.

  • Valenciano

    Also looks likely now that Fred Cobain will beat the DUP in North Belfast. He’s cut the gap to 45 votes. The key count involving McCord is under way and I think that should take him ahead, not to mention the SDLP now have about 800 spare votes a handful of which will go his way.

  • Yokel

    Thank god on North Belfast if thats the case.

    Not that I think Cobain is anything special though he seems to be a genuine over the years but the eclipsing of both SDLP & UUP cann’t in the long wrong be a good thing, not least for the electorate who will get less and less option in future.

    Valeciano whilst South Belfast has cahnged its dempographic there still 3 sound unionist quotas there and the failure to get the vote out to get them is abject.

  • BonarLaw

    Yokel

    “Thank god on North Belfast if thats the case”

    You have obviously never met William Humphry.

  • Yokel

    I was born and bred in Court ward, have always kept an eye on it and know the figures round there, so I know who William is and yes I’ve met him briefly, twice!

  • slug

    BBC say: Cobain eliminated.

  • Comrade Stalin

    Not that I think Cobain is anything special though he seems to be a genuine over the years but the eclipsing of both SDLP & UUP cann’t in the long wrong be a good thing, not least for the electorate who will get less and less option in future.

    The SDLP and UUP have not been eclipsed. They have merely been renamed to SF and DUP.

    BBC are claiming that Cobain has just been eliminated, and so has McCausland (never liked that beardy git). Hmm, they are also claiming that Convery is eliminated and there are only two seats left to fill (three already filled). Methinks they’ve buggered up.

  • BonarLaw

    Yokel

    in that case why Cobain over William?

  • Comrade Stalin

    Yes, as I thought, the BBC messed up, and have now fixed it. Convery eliminated, his transfers should get Maginness in on the next count, and Cobain on the count after that. It is then between McCausland and Humphrey. Looks like Humphrey will be eliminated after Cobain is elected.

  • Comrade Stalin

    slug : the BBC were wrong, and fixed it (quickly)

  • Rubicon

    Slug – the BBC must be watching Slugger. I noticed the same beeb declaration myself but thought it must be an error. If it was right N.Belfast would only be returning 5 members (all others also declared ‘eliminated’). The site has since been corrected and Fred Lazarus Cobain remains in the race 😉

  • slug

    Thanks for the info.

    The BBC have made a lot of cock-ups today.

    Their computer was unreliable. Then they built us all up to look forward to some great graphics for analyzing transfers, which were totally disappointing when I saw them.

  • Cobain has overtaken William Humphrey on McCord’s transfers and now looks odds on favourite to hold.

    Only Convery’s votes are left to transfer. They’ll put Maginness over the quota and the small number that transfer on will go to Cobain. He’s done it.

    Shit. Late night drama.

    Fred says, “Thank you STV for pimping my vote.”

  • slug

    Yes, Sammy, thats what it looks like, Fred Cobain scrapes through.

  • Yokel

    I don’t want unionism quite so dominated by the DUP at electoral level as it is currently looking like.

    It’s that simple. Nothing against Cobain or Humphrey.

  • belfastwhite

    Rte website far better than BBC pisspot effort. Easy to see where transfers are going. Yet another reason for a United Ireland >;op

  • Might give the UUP a second ministry ahead of the SDLP, so it’s important stuff.

  • Yokel

    Unless there is something we are missing in results left to call it looks like the UUP will get their two ministeries, unless Burnside has his way!

    I hope he does but its just a hope.

  • Comrade Stalin

    I saw some other glitches in other constituencies within the past half hour or so, but they seemed to get fixed within five minutes or so.

  • Comrade Stalin

    East Belfast anyone ? This one could go on a while yet.

    The Stoops will be eliminated next, but where will they go ? I reckon some will go to Dawn Purvis, but that can’t put her over the top. Next up for the chop would be Copeland. His exclusion will certainly put Purvis in; her transfers in turn will likely spread evenly across the DUP. That will see the remaining two DUP candidates elected. So :

    Robinson
    Long
    Empey
    Purvis
    Browne
    Newton

    Total waste of time for the UUP to run three, there are not even enough votes there to get two. They should have just run Reg and got him to max the vote out, he might even have topped the poll then, and at least it would have been some decent publicity for them.

    Hmm, Purvis’ “I’ll just mention Saint Ervine a lot and see what it does for me” campaign trick seems to have worked.

  • BonarLaw

    Comrade Stalin

    “Sometimes it takes a David party…” 🙂

    Anyone know if any counts outside Belfast are still going?

  • Yokel

    The DUP will possibly get 3 in East Belfast but not how it was expected!

    If Purvis has done this on a sympathy vote she’ll be a one termer though shes a a bit more shrewd than your average.

  • picador

    The story of this election will be:

    Unionist vote falls under fifty percent for the first time (47.9%)

    The story of the next election may well be:

    Unionists hold less than fifty per cent of seats in NI Assembly (it seems thay are likely to hold 56 out of 108 after the present elction). That’s two seats to play with.

    After that all bets are off!!

  • It’s even worse than I first thought!

    Moderate views – were are they?

    Fuck it! Let SF and DUP kill each other for the next 4 years, I’m beyond caring and let the rest of the minions fight it out too. More years of fruitless fighting over Orange marches, Irish language, police, guns, flags, criminal activity, responsibility for our shared terrible recent history and whatever else. No progress in education, health or jobs – this place is just stagnant and as dull and dreary as the weather is.

    Yes, I’m condescending but why the hell shouldn’t I be: we’re the only area in Western Europe that is still subsumed in tribalism. Nowhere else in the ‘developed’ world does outright sectarianism and a complete inability to converse with your opponents win you even greater popular support than you had before.

    We’re stuck in a time-warp, continually trying to out-do the other side in how much of a victim our side was in the Troubles and how the other side are complete bastards. Makes it easy not to bother compromising doesn’t it, when you can continue to foist all your problems on the inadequacies of your enemies.

    Looks like if I want a decent job I’ll go to Britain or RoI. If I want decent healthcare – same choice. etc, etc. It’s so depressing.

    United Ireland or not, United Kingdom or not, things aren’t going to change until people in general here get their heads out of their arses. Ireland doesn’t want us, the UK doesn’t want us, the elections don’t even command a headline on the national news but do alarm bells ring? The game is up – the people of the UK and Ireland are passed caring about what happens in NI and its petty squabbles.

    For me Big Gerry and Big Ian just merge into one and the same – hatred, the past and the wrong option. But I live in hope that some day folk here will wise up.

  • BonarLaw

    Diluted Orange

    if that’s how it makes you feel ease up on the sauce.

  • Yokel

    The seats in Stormont mean nothing when it comes to a border poll…its that simple.

    Can Hanna find 250 odd votes out of whats left to beat Maskey in SB? I’m assuming McGimpsey is in and can’t see much for Alex to take in transfers.

  • BonarLaw

    Yokel

    SB is all over the place so I’d say Stoker and Birnie between them might have enough voters who took the “anyone but Maskey” route.

  • Yokel

    Gonna be very close and I’m guessing ebacuse it is the UUP & Alliance that they will be trasnferring from that its not likely Alex will benefit much in comparison to Hanna though neither may benefit much. The SDLP could do with the result. I am pretty surprised at how much of pasting they’ve taken espcially as South Antrim now looks out of reach.

    They have been somewhat steamrollered by SF. If Alex makes it, Gerard will do a mean finger buffet at the victory do.

  • páid

    DO

    methinks we all feel like that sometimes.

    Pay no heed to the optimists, Corporal Fraser had it right…..

    We’re doomed.

  • Yokel

    Hold on im talking out of my rear….both Maskey and Hanna are likely to make it. I counted one more seat filled than there was.

  • alastair

    c’me on Alex, take it back..

    Waiting on a – Butler/Maskey/McLaughlin treble from Mr Eastwood – £70 stake.

  • Yokel

    Go pick up in the morning Alistair you should be ok.

    Mind you its a short odds treble.

  • Souther Observer

    Here’s my read having gone through the figures with a calculator and a fine comb.I’m assigning Deeney to the nationalist camp as he has openly expressed an aspiration to join the SDLP in certain circumstances.
    Total nationalist (including relevant independents) 43.3%,total unionist(incl.unionist independents)48.6 %,Alliance and others 8.1%.This is a psephological and not a political observation.
    Incidentally did anyone else hear Mitchel McLaughlin going on about the ‘British Isles’.

  • You’re over cooking the goose with Deeny; his vote was almost certainly more ‘cross-community’ than last time.

    If you can stop the heavy breathing for a moment or two, you might just take a second to remember that a referendum will almost certainly produce different results than a conventional election.

  • Crataegus

    This may seem stupid of me, but I can’t see the point of trying to add up Nationalist and Unionist votes and from that extrapolating a likely border poll. It’s a pointless peeing contest. How I or anyone else vote now and how we vote on a border poll is may prove very different.

    Also there is a problem at the heart of Unionism as is shown by these elections. The Unionists do not have an appealing message to convey to their electorate and less of them are turning out to vote than Nationalists. Nationalists see a vote for SF as equating to a wish for a United Ireland. Unionists see a vote for the DUP as what exactly? One is positive and the other negative. There is no vision in the Unionist camps that is worth a farthing so many Unionists don’t see the point in voting. However if you hold a border poll that may affect jobs, civil servants, the legal system and framework, education, health you can bet there will be an exceedingly high turnout.

  • Yokel

    Sammy Morse

    For gods sake don’t spoil their weekend with a dose of reality over the border poll issue.

    They are only young…

  • George

    Sammy,
    pointing to a 1973 referendum means nothing. The majority of Northern Ireland’s population wasn’t even born then.

    Yokel,

    “They are only young”

    Indeed.

  • Southern Observer

    You’re over cooking the goose with Deeny; his vote was almost certainly more ‘cross-community’ than last time.,
    I’m speaking inter alia on the basis of the transfer of his surplus the last time.

    If you can stop the heavy breathing for a moment or two, you might just take a second to remember that a referendum will almost certainly produce different results than a conventional election. ,

    You are putting words in my mouth.Where did I raise or even suggest this issue?.As I said I was making a purely psephological point.

  • kensei

    “For gods sake don’t spoil their weekend with a dose of reality over the border poll issue.

    They are only young… ”

    Yeah, linking to poll boycotted by most Nationalist in vastly different circumstances and political landscape has shot everyone right down, there.

  • BP1078

    Total nationalist (including relevant independents) 43.3%,total unionist(incl.unionist independents)48.6 %,Alliance and others 8.1%

    63% turnout of total electorate:

    So, total nationalist 27.3%, total unionist 30.6%, Alliance and others 5.1%, views unknown 37%.

    It’s if and how that last category votes which obviously matters and unless someone has a better crystal ball than me, how they would vote in a border referendum today, next year, 5 years time, in 2016- is speculation.

    And my speculation is if they werenationalists/republicans they would be doing their damnest to make sure their vote counts now.
    But that’s only speculation, of course;)

  • Souther Observer

    Just to reiterate I painstakenly totted up the figures (took about an hour BTW)and did relevant tabulations like any amateur psephologist worth his salt.I did not comment ,nor do I wish to comment , on the political implications (whatever they may be) of this data.

  • Yokel

    Link might be poor Kensei ( i havent looked at it) but his point is absolutely correct.

    The Assembly electeion proprotions do not represnt a true statement of straight Unionist/nationalist preferences if it came to one or the other option on the constitutional question.

    There was a differential turnout in this election, how much I have no idea but the crunchers can work it out.

    For those who keep trying to pull that bogeyman out, tell it to the DUP, they are good at using such bollocks.

    Thanks for the offer but no sale.

  • GavBelfast

    At 4pm, the projection is now:

    DUP 36, SF 28, UU 18, SDLP 16, AP 7, GP 1, PUP 1, Other (Deeny) 1

    (BBC)

  • Billy Pilgrim

    Hats off to Fair Deal – his election predictions were damn close to perfect. Just a shade too optimistic for his own party, but sure who isn’t guilty of that? Otherwise spot on – including the by-no-means obvious wins for the PUP, Greens and the Alliance gain in South Belfast