Deeney to squeak home….

From Sammy (who’s in transit) who reckons that Deeney should squeak home against SDLP Josephine Deehan, who should then face the fight of her life against the DUP’s Alan Bresland, with the odds tipped slightly in favour of the latter. That would bring the number of ‘unaligned’ MLA’s to nine – not counting the PUP’s Dawn Purvis accomplished performance in East Belfast to deny the UUP a second seat.

  • slug

    Very interesting to have 9 nonaligned, up two on last time.

    Did you know these 9 nonaligned + PUP will be under the D’Hondt system PERMANENTLY excluded from any positions in the Assembly?

    That seems wrong.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    If the SDLP lose their seat here it will be down to the sheer stupidity of running 3 candidates. Every single political pundit saw the danger signs here yet they plundered on regardless.

  • Suilven

    Deeney looks a certainty.

    As for Bresland vs Deehan, much depends on a) the extent of UUP to DUP transfers, and b) the split of these between Bresland and his DUP running mate.

    For me, the fact there was only one UUP candidate and the strongly tribal nature of transfers in the west (IMO) makes me think Bresland will narrowly edge it.

    It’s an absolute disaster for the SDLP if they get wiped out in this strongly nationalist constituency.

  • Suilven

    Pat

    The disarray/ructions in the West Tyrone SDLP may also have played its part – Deehan only received 1606 of McMenamin’s 2701 potential transfers.

  • Crataegus

    Glad to see Deeney get in.

  • John Farrell

    Deeney is Alliance anyway

  • Mick Fealty

    How so JF?

  • Jonah

    It’s all over in West Tyrone. Just tidying up the surplusses now but Deeney has it.

  • Yokel

    If I read this right, assuming Buchanan gets in in Hussey’s transfers and Bresland gets a mere 600 or so of those Hussey transfers then all we have left would be any Buchanan surplus to go

    This would leave 2 seats, 3 candidates and nothing left to take votes from other than elimination. Even with none making it over quota, 4 canadiadtes 3 seats, again ntohing other than elimination of the last in line.

    Hussey has 3 800 votes to distribute. Bresland is 600 behind Deehan, Buchanan 200. For them both not to overhaul Deehan after distribution would be a shock. If Buchanan gets a ton of trasnfers and gets over the line his surplus will likely go Bresland.

    Deeny is 100 behind Deehan. From what I’ve been told a fair few of Huseey’s will go Deeny. Deehan will be lucky to get more than a handful from Hussey.

  • FewsOrange

    SDLP had over a quota and will end up without any seats in West Tyrone. That will probably cost them an executive seat and be the difference between a 5-5 unionist-nationalist split and what now looks like a 6-4 split.

  • John Farrell

    Mick
    I am surprised you havent read my earlier posts in relation to the man described elsewhere as an “empty stethoscope” which I am surprised you thought was playing the ball.

    However
    1 Deeney is a member of a well known Alliance family. Perhaps the name Dr Donall Deeny means little to those of us who arent so mature in years
    2 One of his backers is a scion of the Alliance Party in the area…a Ms Gormley…..related to a former Nationalist MP who joined AP.
    3 there is a reasonable AP presence in the area going back to a DOCTOR from Omagh who was their perennial candidate in Mid Ulster as it was then in the 1970s
    4 in “border areas” outside APs heartland
    AP ran in Newry/Armagh (278 votes)
    AP ran in FST (521)
    AP ran in MU (221)
    AP ran in Derry (224)
    in fact Alliance Party ran in 17 constituencies……….

    all of which kinda adds up

  • Yokel

    All over, SDLP out.

    Hussey did transfer ok to Deeny, about 700 or so.

  • Slugger O’Toole Admin

    JF,

    You are a new guest here, so I’ll give you a pass.

    I have work to do, so I do not have the time to spend making sure everyone is playing the ball. It should really be a ‘self policing’ affair.

    As for the Deeney reference, I only asked because, in fact he is not a member of the Alliance Party. I thought you might be hinting at a development we’d not heard of as yet.

  • John Farrell

    everything about Deeney squeals Alliance. I am a firm believer in every party standing in every constituency. we all deserve the right to endorse or reject the manifesto.
    credit therefore to the AP for showing the flag in areas not “naturally Alliance”.
    West Tyrone deserved that right.

    the skill in analysis is in identifying a trend and understanding it.
    Deeneys background and backers added to the AP failure to stand…seems to point to a pretty obvious conclusion.

  • Suilven

    There looks to have been enough leakage in unionist transfers in South Antrim for Burns of the SDLP to sneak in.

    The perils of running too many candidates on too few quotas (UUP this time) and poor balancing of candidates (DUP) highlighted yet again!

  • There is an undistributed SF surplus of 294.
    There is an undistributed UUP->DUP surplus of 285.

    Current figures:

    Deeny 5560
    Bresland 5543
    Deehan 5085

    In other words, it’s all over and the SDLP lose out and have only themselves to blame.

  • BonarLaw

    How many STV elections do these bozos need to f@*k up before the penny drops. Unionists in SB, nationalists in WT are just bloody amateurs.

  • Suilven

    BonarLaw

    Scotland gets its first ever STV election in May. Can’t wait for the fun and games as they try to get their head around it!

  • Jacko

    Deeney is a nationalist. My dad went to school with him and he played Gaelic football etc. I am told by reliable sources that although his main agenda is the hospital etc., he sides with SF/SDLP. Sinne Fianna Fail…..
    Just thought you might like to know that so add 1 more onto the nationalist seats. Gura maith agat

  • Wilde Rover

    “Did you know these 9 nonaligned + PUP will be under the D’Hondt system PERMANENTLY excluded from any positions in the Assembly?
    That seems wrong”

    So while the DUP/SF and their corresponding Mini-Mes are locked in an enforced executive bondage session those who don’t don the green or orange jumpsuits can only get a ministry if one of the S&M parties gives them one, no matter how many seats “non-designated” win?

    Surely this is all bound to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions?

    Or maybe it will just keep going further down the rabbit hole.

  • West Tyrone

    Without straying towards playing the ball John Farrells comments might be worth scrutiny. Anyone who listened to Deeney’ acceptance speech would be struck by the fact that the hospital/health issue got a minute or two at the end, but the first 10 minutes were taken up by telling us what a wonderful cross-community canvass team he had, how he took votes from every community and area and how this was the model for a shared future.

    The big fly in the ointment is that he does take quite a few nationalist votes. It was amazing the number of people who voted 1McElduff 2Shields and 3Deeney as these were all Carrickmore based candidates. It seems that parochialism can trump even some party divides in Carrickmore.

    I’m not attacking him personally, but he’s clearly attempting to re-position himself as the steam goes out of the Hospital camapign. Nothing will make that steam (what’s left) disappear quicker than a functioning Assembly with Deeney absolutely powerless to do anything about the hospital in Omagh.

    Fair play to him if he manages to re-invent himself as the new face of Alliance west of the Bann, but I feel that this is his last hurrah.

    As for the Bresland / Deehan battle – that was never the contest. The two DUP candidates were always going to be elected or within spitting distance of the quota once Hussey’s transfers were disributed that it didnt make a whole lot of difference.

    The big deciding factor was the number of McMenamin’s votes which either didnt transfer or went to Deeney. That made the battle between Deehan and Deeney for either the fifth or sixth seath.

    Deeney took an SF seat last time but nicked the SDLP’s seat this time – ably assisted by 3 SDLP candidates who hate the sight of each other and were taking down each other’s posters right up until polling day in Castlederg.

  • John Farrell

    West Tyrone,
    I also think my comments on Deeney are worth scrutiny..well I would, wouldnt I?
    The fact that he played gaelic football is I think not very relevant. The leading and probably only Alliance figure in South Down in the 1970s was a man called Tony Williamson who was Secretary of the Down County GAA Board.

    I am unfortunately a political anorak of some longevity.

    A small extra point I noticed tonight on the news. The colour of Deeneys rosette was Yellow.

    So basically its a matter of joining the dots to make a picture
    1 Member of Alliance “family”
    2 Backed by known AP supporters (Gormley)
    3 An Alliance tradition in Omagh, stronger than other western border areas
    4 a “single issue” that appears settled
    5 the only constiuency where AP does not run a candidate.
    and er
    6 yellow rosette

    now no doubt some will say one or other of these points is circumstantial as they say on THE BILL…but all I do is present the facts and others can join the dots

    Yes I think I made a reasonable point about his “Independent status” and I think I made that reasonable point reasonably.
    Is it worth scrutiny? Yes
    Will it get scrutiny? No

    Does it matter? Well only if you expect or want transparency. But it seems to me Deeney has had a very easy ride.
    If Alliance was one seat away from getting a seat on the Executive (thankfully they arent) you might well see Dr Deeney have a road to Damascus type conversion as he approaches the Ballygawley Roundabout.

    I only really joined Slugger O’Toole for the duration of the election and the few days after so I wont be around too much longer to tax the patience of the Administrators.

  • Southern Observer.

    Part of the good doctor’s pitch to get a clear run against SF for the last Westminster election was a promise to the SDLP to join them if he got elected and I think this settles the issue.He has been described as ‘SDLP-lite’ which I think is accurate enough.He is a realist and must be aware that a single issue can only carry you for so long (indeed he just about made it this time on the basis of an SDLP cock-up)and that he must join an established party if he wants a future in politics.

  • Southern Observer

    Deeney took an SF seat last time
    It was an SDLP seat actually.

  • West Tyrone

    Southern Observer
    On paper Deeney took an SDLP seat in 2003, but that clearly ignores the local realities. Everyone knows that had Deeney not taken the seat in 2003 then it was going to SF.

  • west tyrone

    There’s no doubt that Deeney at least flirted with the SDLP, but I think he’s definately moving himself presently towards an Alliance position.

    Maybe he just doesnt care who he alligns with – he’s got to like elected politics and doesn’t want to lose out.

  • Suthern Observer

    Judging by the performance of Alliance in the neighbouring constituencies if he actually tried to present himself as a half-baked Alliance man he would have sunk without trace.

  • John Farrell

    If Dr Deeney wants a future in politics it would appear at odds with being single issue. Nor does it explain the strange decision of AP not to stand.

  • dodrade

    “If Dr Deeney wants a future in politics it would appear at odds with being single issue. Nor does it explain the strange decision of AP not to stand.”

    I’d say Alliance didn’t stand because Deeny’s agenda is very similar, plus the fact that the Alliance candidate at the last assembly election only got 164 votes.

    Great performance from Bresland too, especially as he only agreed to stand 5 days before nomination day.

  • DMCM

    The Agreement lost today. The true sense of power sharing has been overtaken by power grabbing.
    They should call a referendum asap. People are voting for the constitutional status and nothing else, which reflects the successes of Paisley and Adams.
    The SDLP and UUP are completely irrelevant and will suffer further losses when the next election is called.
    This is Deeneys last run in Stormont. He will not get voted in again as an independent. He needs to sign up with Sinn Fein or the SDLP. If he signs up with Alliance he will not get elected next time in West Tyrone.

  • ‘The colour of Deeneys rosette was Yellow.’
    Maybe it was an old Ulster Liberal Party rosette!

  • John Farrell

    If I remember correctly the old “Ulster” liberal party eventually meged with Alliance.
    Alliance is linked to the Liberal Democrats and very embarrassed the Lib Dems are about it too.
    I think I heard once that Shelagh Murnaghan eventually joined SDLP….but I dont know if its true.
    The Liberal Senator Claude Wilton from Derry was one of the original 8 Stormont politicians in the SDLP.

  • IJP

    John Farrell

    Let’s just say I’ve heard a lot of dafter points made during this election – not just here, but in the local press and on the local media.

  • [i]Alliance is linked to the Liberal Democrats and very embarrassed the Lib Dems are about it too. [/i]

    Source?

  • jeep55

    “Alliance is linked to the Liberal Democrats and very embarrassed the Lib Dems are about it too.”

    So why then do the Lib-Dems repeatedly send their leader or a senior party figure over here ahead of major elections? If Alliance ever win a Westminster seat the Lib-Dems will be cheering the success every step of the way.

  • John Farrell
    “I think I heard once that Sheelagh Murnaghan eventually joined SDLP”
    Some members of the Ulster Liberal Association did become founding members of the SDLP as others formed the nucleus of the Alliance Party.
    Sheelagh Murnaghan never thought of joining them.
    She last stood as a Liberal in the 1973 Assembly elections for South Belfast.