Will they actually get back to work?

YouTube from a Nigag event, chaired by Seamus Mckee, in Belfast, in which old Sluggerite, Chris Stalford fields the crucial question. Will they get back to work? Stalford, begins by noting ‘significant’ progress in the Ard Fheis motion, but the emergence from Republicanism of ‘two different definitions of crime’. He charges that ‘crime is universal’. John O’Dowd, “the people I represent are decent, ordinary, law abiding citizens”, and “there is no hiding place for criminals in Republican communities”. PS, Look out for the wee dig at Alan McFarland about his party’s contract in North Antrim. Then Alban Maguinness digs in with an offer to represent either of the two parties in settling their dispute…

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  • jp

    “there is no hiding place for criminals in Republican communities” – i know the ARA have done well this week but surely this is a premature statement ?

  • Yokel

    The answer to the headline question is no if the bookies are to be believed, at least not on the 26th.

    You could get 6/4 out there for a no to restoration on the 26th. In the last week or two Eastwoods price has just shifted and shifted to where it is now a hot favorite at 1/2.

    If you believe that bookies rarely get it wrong then the 26th will pass, without an Assembly.

  • Rubicon

    Yokel – you could be right. What was 4/5 on yesterday has moved to 1/2 for no restoration on the 26th. It’s not the bookie that changes odds but money and the punters who put it on.

    I hear a single bet of several thousand was placed today on no restoration on the 26th. I wonder who put it on? I thought the DUP didn’t gamble …

  • Yokel

    How reliable is the source of that story Rubicon or is it just a general rumour out there?

    I was on very early on a no at 6/4 (not a few grand though I hasten to add, or else I’d not have an other half) because i thought it was 50-50 on a restoration by the target date. That price that was still available with Paddy Powers up until the weekend though I notice they’ve taken the market down this evening.

    I got the impression a couple of weeks back that there would be delay but ultimately it’ll go ahead. How long the delay is though, days, weeks or months (but not years) is anyones guess. I’ve long posted that events at No.10 & 11 shouldnt be ignored and I’m wondering if theres a lot of hedging by politicians here going on the basis that Blair is a busted flush and thus delay is really on the agenda.

    I’d just like to say thank you very much Mr Eastwood if they let me bet on a restoration tomorrow. With the odds change I can cover my stakes elsewhere so that I have a no-lose position.

    I could feel vaguely guilty about trying to make money out of events but I don’t.

  • Rubicon

    The source is reliable Yokel. I don’t think it’s a general rumour – yet. What it means is another issue – there are more people out there with more money than sense than I thought. Apparently (less reliable source) someone put a £1,000 on Paul berry @ 10/1!

    More interestingly though – I hope the people who bet on “no restoration on the 26th” have checked the terms of that bet. Doesn’t the Assembly have to be restored for it to meet on the 26th?

  • Rubicon

    Just checked the SAA. Unless on March 25th the SoS considers “there would be no reasonable prospect that each of the Ministerial offices would be filled” on the 26th the NI Assembly is then restored.

    However, if “it appears to him that one or more of the Ministerial offices has not been
    filled” by the end of the 26th “the Secretary of State must on 27 March 2007 make an order under the 2000 Act revoking the restoration order”.

    Hence, if the Assembly meets on the 26th it will meet as the restored NI Assembly (and not the Transitional Assembly). It may be suspended again on the 27th – but a bet for restoration on the 26th will surely have been won already.

  • Yokel

    It’s clear with Eastwoods what the meaning is, i.e. everything starts to function and devolved administration starts as per the plan. I did check, anything short of that and its a no if i interpreted correctly what i was told. Paddy Powers, on paper, looked more vague but again I and anopther individual have been led to believe its the same basis as Eastwoods.

    I don’t think the bet will mess about with the bet unless something very odd occurs. They should pay out on way or the other.

    I notice they have taken down the market for it now so I’m riding on a straight bet unless they bring it back up tomorrow.

    A grand on Berry? Jaysus, I think he was 10/1 to retain the seat. I’d be celebrating with with some Haffner’s from Premier Meats if that landed….

  • Rubicon

    Yokel – I hope you’re right about the terms of the “no” bet. Did Eastwoods make the terms clear when you placed the bet? Was there info for punters explaining the terms?

    I’m less concerned about your “no” bet than I am about placing the house on “yes”. There’s only a small chance the NI Assembly won’t meet on the 26th. If it does – it is restored and will remain restored until the SoS suspends it again (assuming it fails on the 26th) on the 27th.

    The wicked side of me enjoyed telling my “source” on the few grand bet that little bit of detail in the legislation. I’d never seen the guy move so fast! I left him frantically dialing on his mobile 😉

  • Yokel

    I can see the possible technicality there but I’m not panicking.

    I’d be pretty sure I would get paid out if the Assembly doesn’t properly reconvene and restore as opposed to a one day wonder session. I’ve done a fair amount with Eastwoods over the years, not that I’m some high roller, and they’ve been good about every issue. Same with Paddy Power.