DUP get Mori poll boost…

Interesting poll figures from the Belfast Telegraph this morning (not yeat online). Amongst people who said they intended to vote, the DUP leads the field at 25% (-0.5% from ’03), with Sinn Fein behind by just three percent at 22% (-1.5%) The SDLP are at 20% (+3%). But our new advertisers, the UUP (-7%), are suffering at 16%(-9%). The Alliance have gone up from 3.7% in ’03 to a full 9% now. The Greens are already showing a respectable 3%. Though at plus or minus 3% margin of error, these figures should be taken with a modicum of salt. Most noticable is that there would appear to be a one per cent lead of nationalist parties over unionist parties (42%-41%), which if reflected in the poll next week, would would not mean Martin rather than Ian would be the next first minister – (see commenter ? below).

  • blab

    to date SF canvassers have not made it as far as the rosetta roundabout – sdlp callers at my door – but no one else yet

  • dodrade

    My best guess for what its worth:

    DUP 33%

    SF 24%

    UUP 19%

    SDLP 17%

    All 5%

  • Aquifer

    The Greens support could be understated. Up to ten percent could be new voters, and younger voters may have mobiles, rather than landlines, to be polled.

  • Crataegus

    Aquifer

    What is important to parties like the Greens, Conservatives etc. is for people to forget what all the prophets of doom say about wasted vote, and we are the only ones with a chance. If you want them give them your first preference vote and then use your transfers for the others. That way you may actually get what you want.

    As for Greens support being understated, you may have a point, but the young tend to be least likely to vote.

    This poll shows that Greens have a good support base and in the areas they are targeting I would assume their support is considerably higher. They are likely to take a seat in North Down and they may just do the double and get one in South Down as well. Elsewhere highly unlikely but in politics sometimes very odd things happen.

  • SuperSoupy

    One out of five of the actual results for the big five within the margin of errors.

    What an utterly worthless pile of tripe. Almost as bad as the ‘secret’ NIO polls that keep getting leaked saying the SDLP are going to get all the votes.

    Nonsense and it was carried by lots of other media.

    Maybe next time they’ll just hang it on a hook by a toilet whre it deserved to be along? But, i’m sure people will treat them as credible next time the garbage comes out.