Eastwoods offer a McCartney Special….

Eastwoods are backing Bob McCartney to take one seat 1/2 on, but there’s not much given for him taking no seats at all – 5/4 against. For those (in the UUP?) hoping he will take four, put your money down and Mr Eastwood will pay out at a rate of 100/1… However, he clearly believes two seats is possible at 9/2, and three might even be a nice little earner given perfect storm conditions at 20/1..Bob McCartney to win …

no seats 5/4

at least 1 seat 1/2

at least 2 seats 9/2

at least 3 seats 20/1

at least 4 seats 100/1

  • I wonder what the odds were of the UKUP winning 5 seats back in 1998?

    I wonder what the odds would be of the UKUP splitting up post-election???

    LOL – history repeats…

  • Yokel

    Actually Mick, Barnabas’ mob believes theres next to no chance of McCartney taking 2 seats. The 9/2 is a laugh.

    Put the 1/2 & 5/4 together and they effecively make up your 100% of percentage liklihood options as far as Barney is concerned.

    1/2 is just over 66% percentage liklihood when you convert it. 5/4, a touch over 44% likelihood in conversion so he’s over 100% already.

    The rest is firmly in the over round.

    I’m available for professional pub boring….

  • Butterknife

    As a PR election i’d put a pound on getting all 4 seats. Well worth a flutter!

  • Tochais Síoraí

    Nah, you can’t isolate 2 options in a bookies list like that, Yokel. Taking out overrounds and each outcome in Eastwood’s list not being mutually exclusive a rough calc of each outcome occuring (based on Mr Eastwood)should be around

    no seats 41%
    1 seat 45% chance(1 seat or more 60% chance)
    2 seats 11% (2 seats or more 15%)
    3 seats 3% (3 seats or more 4%)
    4 seats 1% (4 seats or more less than 1%)

  • Well I’m glad I emailed Eastwoods to ask them if they would publish some odds for McCartney’s sextuple-play.

  • Bill

    1/2 on is 2/1 a .33 chance of winning
    2/1 on is 1/2 a .66 chance of winning

  • jeep55

    Interesting comment by Truth and Justice – message 11 at bbc-election-07-blog

    UUP/Alliance sources suggest Bob McCartney is in serious trouble on his home turf. If true, the 5/4 bet on taking 0 seats would be like taking candy!

  • Yokel

    Tochais

    I think I understand where you are coming from. We have a different interpreration of what type of bet this is. For me, ultimately whilst the bet is framed in terms of ‘ranges’, e.g. 2 or more it, in practical reality it isn’t really a range bet.

    In a race with 5 options there, (no seats & 1-4 seats) the 9/2 looks an ok price suggesting its realistic, when in fact I suspect, based on the pure percentage chances Eastwoods dont believe its a 9/2 in their assessment of pure percentage chances (take out the bookies margin) in reality or anywhere near it.

    Taking my reading off odds based on my interpretaion of the bet, they are as follows:

    1/2 – 66.67% chance
    5/4 – 44.44%
    9/2 – 18.18%
    20/1 – 4.76%
    100/1 – 0.99%

    I don’t see this as a range bet because the punter has a fixed positon on a single event, to me it is still win or lose to a fixed amount not win or lose a flexible amount such as in spread betting.

  • Yokel

    Jeep

    Looking at McCartney’s results in North Down there is ample evidence that the guys star could be fading rightly.

    I think a few people have posted on here and elsewhere, myself included, that McCartney may well have difficulty holding his seat. I;ve heard no one suggest that it will rise.

    Question is who will his vote go to?

  • jeep55

    Yokel
    Most of his votes will go to the DUP making a second seat within their grasp. Mind you some might remember that, when he started off in the Assembly Election of 1982, it was felt that, as a liberal unionist, he might take votes off Alliance. As the years have gone on he has became more right-wing and more entrenched in his own rhetoric that few can work with him. Not a big loss!

  • Yokel

    In that case Jeep with Aliance voters not ncessarily needing to feel they have to go UUP like for Westminster 2005, is there a fair chance of the DUP topping the poll for first preference votes?

    To me it looks like it.

  • jeep55

    Yokel
    My feeling is that North Down is one constituency where UUP will outpoll DUP – though not by much. In the absence of a McCartney challenge both DUP and UUP should win 2 seats each. Alliance should do better than in 2003 and win a seat without having to rely on everybody elses transfers! That would then leave the last seat an interesting fight between UUP/DUP/Green which I hope Brian Wilson of the Greens can take. Much depends upon how early in the count Alliance get elected and how many ‘no-hopers’ (in North Down this includes SDLP and particularly SF) are still left in the fray. I haven’t any inside knowledge other than what you read here but Alliance seem fairly chirpy – but then again they are only contesting one seat.

  • Yokel

    Jeep

    It’s possible that the UUP will indeed get an overall higher percentage when all the preferences are counted up, but after the first count can the DUP slate show a higher total?

    They are running 3 now, compared to 2 in 2003. Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll get any more votes, just spread them out, there is the possibility it will help.

  • wee willie

    The DUP must believe Bob is going to win. I heard them say he was a “banker”. At least I think that’s what they said.

  • jeep55

    Yokel

    Anything is possible but the Eastwoods bet is on first preference votes only. 9/4 for DUP to gain most first preferences is reasonable – in other words the odds still favour UUP. Should DUP go ahead later in the count is irrelevant to the bet (though not of course to the DUP). However if Bob polls badly, most of the other independents and others (including Alliance, SDLP and SF) will tend to add to the UUP tally rather than the DUP.

  • prince

    “For those (in the UUP?) hoping he will take four”

    That would just be shilliday and we all know how good he is at election predictions….anyone remember 2005?

    I’d be surprised if Bob is not returned to North Down but that’ll be it for him – people don’t react well to blow ins and further more, people are not yet ready to desert the DUP, they’ll need to mess things up for another few years first.

  • bruce201

    North Down DUP canvass returns indicate a massive fall in support for Bob. He just squeaked in last time and thereis hardly a constituency in NI which is less anti-anything than North Down.

    His cloaning is not going down well anywhere and will have an impact on the only constituency he had a remote chance of winning. Yet, it is possible that he does not care and knows he is a loser.

  • Nice site its very interesting site! your site is fantastic.y

  • Very good web site, great work and thank you for your service.y