The online election…


A NUMBER of clips from NICVA’s election question time have been put on You Tube. The lists of candidates have been published online in full in the last few minutes. Elsewhere, Green candidate Brian Wilson has made his own personal election vid for You Tube (above)

  • SuperSoupy

    Belfast North & West are still missing. Is there a dispute? Or just typical inefficency?

  • Belfast Gonzo

    No, it’s there all right. Second on the list in fact.

  • Queens Unionist

    Credit to this chap. (Green party)
    The video is simple but well put together.
    He raises some good points.
    I’ll view the other clips tomorrow at a more sensible hour.
    My hands are cold from postering!

  • BeardyBoy

    He lectured me in Politics – was quite a decent fellow – I thought he was in the Alliance Party for some reason

  • SuperSoupy

    Wilson was elected an APNI Cllr in 93, an Independent in 97 and 01, then a Green in 2005.

  • Crataegus

    Watched the video, it is a bit rough and shame about the shopping mall music.

    It is obvious that he is working on a shoe string budget, and with that in mind one has to make allowances. It’s a nice attempt to put forward his pitch and try to get some publicity. He gets his points across and refreshingly not a lot about the constitution, but lots about the environment and local government finance. He strikes me as a genuine and honest sort. I met him some years ago over a planning application. He struck me as a quiet sort of personality, not at all pushy and probably a very solid public representative.

    He has a very large personal vote of around 1600 in Bangor West.

    I have no doubt that Wilson, Farry and Leslie would all be solid constituency representatives and a hell of a lot more productive than those who are likely to top the poll in N. Down.

    Likely outcome 2 DUP (God only knows why), 1UUP, 1 Alliance and last two seats between UUP, Bob, Greens and perhaps the conservatives. Would dearly love to see Bob fail, capable man BUT!!*!*!

    In this constituency much will depend on the garden centre sector turning out to vote and where the SDLP vote goes. I think it will favour the Greens and they will take the 6th seat.

  • Mick Fealty

    One of the points is, it cost next to nothing… And as an early mover, it puts him out there…

  • realist

    The conservatives to win a seat in North Down? You must be joking.I am only new to this site and I have found it to be a breath of fresh air in relation to sensible political debate. There are a few sewer type sites run by sicko’s with a grudge around but this one is the tops. That said we are in danger of drifting into fantasy land by talking about the Tories winning a seat. The big question should be will they actually save their deposit this time? Brian Wilson is nice guy but have you ever heard him in full flow? His powers of oratory are suspect and he would’nt fare well in a bull pit political situation like the Assembly. He writes a good fight. Ask his Council colleagues. He has campaigned under a lot of banners in his time and I wonder if his high hopes on this occasion come to nothing will he quit politics? He could hardly join the DUP, although they might be struggling a bit themselves in North Down when big Bob fires a few salvo’s over their heads. Their candidates in North Down will be scratching their heads to remember what verbal skeletons they have in the cupboard that Bob will throw at them. Changing your political stand big time is never a good idea as the DUP might find out in March especially when dealing with a clever mind like McCartney. Isn’t it all very exciting!

  • Crataegus

    Realist

    I don’t think I suggested the Conservatives would win a seat just that I wish they would. I agree I don’t see Wilson as a debater, but he appears to me to be a good honest, hard working guy, and I for one would be happy to be represented by people like him. He is unlikely to be in the pockets of developers and has no links with anyone who may at some future time decide to murder me. He wants a better society for us all and in particular the elderly and that’s good enough for me and a marked improvement from the S&M Parties.

    Hope you are right about the DUP if ever there was a party that has truly nothing to offer it is them. Their 40 years of whining has been a pointless pain in the ears. As for SF pointless slaughter for what?

    Mick

    I know it cost nothing and agree it was a good effort. Today St Valentine’s day he and their candidate in South Down are planting trees for mother earth.

  • Free Agent

    Excellent stuff. I’m so happy to see non sectarian issues on the agenda. I can see him picking up a few of Eileen Bell’s votes and taking a seat from the AP. Farry lacks charisma.

  • rapunsel

    I agree with Mick. Simple message with clarity and cheap. Good luck to him. I have done some canvassing in North Down in the past for the Greens for council and assembly election.

    Ciaran Mussen has been quick off the mark in South Down too in terms of canvassing and postering. His were the first up and are widespread certainly between ballynahinch and Castlwellan/Newcastle. This place needs new people with fresh thinking. My opinionn is that realistically the party with the chance of most sustainable growth are the greens. This election will be the last chance for the anti agreement republicans and unionists

  • Crataegus

    Rapunsel

    Given your association with the Greens, in South Down do you think that the Greens will gain from the obvious conflict within SF? I agree with you regarding parties on the up the Greens will increase their vote considerably, but it is from a low base, but there again it is part of a series of increases.

    I could see Greens getting say 2000 -2500 first preference votes in South Down if they have a really good campaign and lots of support on the ground. There is a small Unionist surplus, Alliance transfers, some Labour transfers, but the big block of lower transfers is likely to be Cumminghams transfers.

    From Elections NI in the last Assembly election the vote was

    SDLP 15,922 (35.1%, -10.2%) 2 seats
    SF 12,007 (26.5%, +11.4%) 2 seats
    UUP 8,253 (18.2%, +3.8%) 1 seat
    DUP 6,789 (15.0%, +5.6%) 1 seat
    Green 799 (1.8%)
    NIWC 565 (1.2%, -2.0%)
    Alliance 489 (1.1%, -1.8%)
    UKUP 245 (0.5%, -4.5%)
    Ind 162 (0.4%)
    WP 115 (0.3%, +/-0.0%)

    But in the 2005 Council election the vote was

    SDLP 16,290.1 (34.5%)
    Sinn Fein 11,396.2 (24.1%)
    UUP 7,417.5 (15.7%)
    DUP 7,231.8 (15.3%)
    Green 1,650.8 (3.5%)
    Alliance 535.2 (1.1%)
    WP 97 (0.2%)
    Independents 2,622 (5.6%)

    There are two safe Unionist seats with a small surplus. There is also an SDLP surplus of around half a quota. For Greens to benefit from that they would need about 3000 votes. If they can do that they are in the running. If not their transfers will decide the last seat. The weakest seat has to be SFs second and with the discontent I would expect a small drop in support. They are on about 25% let’s say they drop 1000 votes It would mean they would be on 22% and if that translates into say 10% and 12% the last candidate is going to be on 4000 votes and very hard to pass.

    I tend to think
    2 SF
    2 SDLP
    1 UUP
    1 DUP

    But I hope I am wrong and best of luck.

  • Alf

    I have been following Brian Wilson’s campaign closely and had met with him on the seafront when making the vid above. He was using just a laptop, a small digi cam and a clip-on mic. I am amazed at the outcome considering the equipment used. It was his son who created the video and had uploaded to youtube so viewers could play it through Brian’s myspace and Bebo pages, which were also created and are maintanied by his son Allan (24 year old as todays Belfast Telegraph has mentioned). I have come across his myspace:

    http://www.myspace.com/aldermanwilson

    I still have not found the bebo but it should be something fairly similar. His son has been working a lot and has been able to connect with the younger / cyber voters and has gained Brian an advantage.

    It seems Brian has been ready and working for this election since the last assembly election passed. He has continuously produced and delivered leaflets / Newsletters on local issues in the Bangor West area and will have gained on his already large proportion of voters in this area. Similar to Mussen in South Down, the 1st posters in North Down were Brian Wilson’s Green Party posters and there are a lot of them.

    The QUB ARK study has predicted that the Green Party will win a seat in North Down. Going just by the percentage of votes from the last assembly election Brian + the Green vote would have been higher than Eileen Bell’s Alliance vote.

    Brian Wilson (Ind) 1350 (4.4%)
    John Barry (Green) 730 (2.4%)

    This will certainly have increased with the awareness of green issues, the work put into other areas of Bangor by the Green Party (Kelly Andrews in the Abbey area) and the work Brian Wilson has put into targeting the younger voters and the Bangor West area over the past years.

    I’m sure the Greens will be disappointed to not win a seat in North Down and there is a possibility they may finish above Farry and Alliance. I predict at least 1 seat from the Greens this time round, they are well prepared.

  • Crataegus

    Alf

    Fary may not be a strong vote getter, but Alliance are strong in North Down. I think Allaince will take a seat but the last three seats will be between Alliance, Greens, Bob, and the last UUP candidate. I think that this time Bob may be the loser.

    If you are helping Brian you will have your work cut out to get him elected. I see the Greens are pleading for more canvassers and helpers. Looks like a determined campaign. The SDLP transfers may prove crucial. If you have solid support canvassing you will probably take a seat.

    Seems a decent and hard working guy hope he does well.

  • Crataegus

    Alf

    Went through some of your statements. The links on this one to Dean Fiedman are amusing.

    THe world is in a terrible pickle would have made an excellent PEB.