PDs going through the floor…?

There’s a lot of material in today’s Irish Times poll. Apart from the obvious Northern Irish interest in the fate of Sinn Fein (up 2 points btw), the most striking detail is the rating of the government parties: and especially the Progressive Democrats at 1%. Even allowing for a three per cent margin of error, that would be cataclysmic if repeated in the June poll. Mary Harney will need some serious results to show from her health reforms in the next six months if her party is to maintain any grip on the national conciousness, never mind government.

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  • Brian Boru

    As a PD member I am doubtful about this poll for a number of reasons:

    A: The latest Red C poll (conducted by telephone-polling) puts the PDs on 3% and 5% in Dublin. The latest IMS poll puts the PDs on 5% nationally. So TNS-MRBI are out of line with the other polling-evidence. Also the previous TNS-MRBI poll put PD support in Dublin at 1% which was contradicted by a subseqent IMS poll placing it at 8%. Clearly someone here is getting it wrong.

    B: TNS-MRBI had the PDs on 2% in 2002 and they got 4% and doubled their seats in the face of near universal prophesies of their demise.

    C: Telephone-polling was shown in 2002 to be the most accurate methodology. TNS-MRBI use face-to-face polling. In 2002, the only poll not to predict a PD wipeout was ICM. The MD of Red C used to work for the former, so I am more inclined to believe the Red C and ICM polls. Part of the equation here is how the undecideds are apportioned. Red C assign half of them to how their social-group voted in the last General Election, whereas TNS-MRBI readjusts in favour of FG as they are assuming the recurrance of a traditional under-representation of FG as per past elections. However it’s important to remember that the ICM poll was spot on in predicting where FG would be. The notion that FG is always under-represented in polls is not something I agree with. I would argue that TNS-MRBI is being over-zealous in readjustments.

    Anyway the only poll that matters is the GE! 🙂

  • All these polls ignore the extent to which small parties in Ireland are essentially a collection of independents popular in their locality. The PDs are perhaps the most extreme example of this.

  • Glensman

    It would be great if this was to be replicated in the election, but unfortunately i think they’ll do better than this poll suggests. Also Harney has handed the party over to McDowell, maybe she seen it as a sinking ship.

    But it’s no shock seeing the unpopularity of the PD’s when we hear Harney on Radio yesterday referring to sick people as ‘consumers in the health market’.

    As a Republican i am happy to say thank god for the british health system… with all its faults it’s miles better than the free state one.

  • Elvis Parker

    Probably too early to see the true extent of the ‘bounce’ that SF get from policing – or it may be that southern electorate have discounted it already?

  • Greenflag

    Lies ,damned lies and IT polls .

    Trying to inject some life into an election which is a foregone conclusion. Not quite as predictable a result as the NI Census sorry Election but a clear win for Bertie’s FF and PD’s is on the cards .

  • Henry94

    I don’t know. The occasionally astute Eoughan Harris reckons the PDs are in trouble with Moby Dick.

  • bpower

    The PDs have it easy. If they cant fix a problem, it proves that the state shouldnt be involved in it. So, they privatise it.

    Doin what was done elsewhere 20 years ago and they go around as if they’re the first to think of it.

    I don’t see their support disappearing altogether, there’ll always be people who cant enjoy their own wealth unless there’s some hungry child nearby to provide some juxtaposition.

    Henry94,Is that Eoughan “Rumsfeld is a genius” Harris? rolflmao. Yeah, i know man,ball, blah,blah etc…

    Even further OT – what is it with people who go from one political extreme to another? Cant they chill with the rest of us in the middle for a while. And then they hold themselves up as the pinnacle of rationality.

  • Crataegus

    Greenflag

    a clear win for Bertie’s FF and PD’s is on the cards

    Definitely a clear win for Bertie, but not so sure about the PDs their number of elected representatives could drop below that of the Greens and SF.

    For the alternative coalition concept to work FG have to be the credible engine to drive that forward and plainly they are not and there are clearly rumblings in the ranks. The poll confirms that FG are going nowhere and it will be interesting to watch what happens there post election.

    At the moment the election is Bertie’s to lose.

  • Fintan, Portlaoise

    The news about the PDs seems too good to be true, but I hope the voters toss out Obersturmbanhführer Makdübel anyway. As for Eoghan Harris – way up there with the Beano for credibility and serious analytical ability – where is he now, after the Workers Party, Fine Gael, and parties in between?