Meanwhile back at the ranch

It seems that the thought of “losing Bertie” has restored the coalition government’s opinion poll fortunes. In the latest poll by the Irish Times Fianna Fail jumped to 39% (up from 31%) and the PD’s to 4% (up from 3%). Labour, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and independents all dropped. The Greens were the only opposition party to see some growth up 1% to 6%.

  • Brian Boru

    FF-PD 43%, FG-Lab-Greens: 43%. I would advise FF to mount a campaign to portray themselves as “the real Green party” and to warn Green voters that “a vote for Green is a vote for FG” and its leader has pinned his colours to the Rainbow mast and ruled out FF until his party-grassroots forced him to feign neutrality again.

  • austin

    Sin Fein dropped a point to 8%

    Wonder how today’s events at St. Andrews will impact upon this figure in the next poll?

  • Mark McGregor

    I would suggest someone asks Pat Leahy of the SBP for permission to print the regional data he gives in his additional email briefing on the spread of votes and trends. The main interest for Slugger’s readers is clearly the SF figures but as Mick can confirm (if he signed up for the thing) the figures vary hugely by area. For a smaller party like SF the national polling doesn’t paint a true picture of their potential in key targeted seats.

    A national poll is pretty irrelevant to seat predictions for a party like SF that will only have candidates with a real chance of winning in 15-20 constituencies.

    8% nationally can translate to as lower or lower than 3% in certain areas to as high or higher than 20% in others. Plus concentrating on the winnable will lead to a reduced figure in areas were much less work is happening.

    But then true stat freaks know this already without Pat’s excellent briefings.

  • Brian Boru

    Mark this was an Irish Times poll so getting the SBP figures would not be relevant for this poll.

  • Brian Boru

    Part 2 of the poll in tomorrow’s IT:

    36% prefer a FF/PD govt to 31% for FG/Lab/Greens. 18% neither and 15% no opinion.

  • Crataegus

    Brian

    its (Green Party) leader has pinned his colours to the Rainbow mast and ruled out FF until his party-grassroots forced him to feign neutrality again.

    We always assume that the leaders of other political parties will fall and rise but one that never seems to change is that of the Green Party. It has struck me that he has made some right howlers like the one above and the nonsense surrounding the possible Presidential election campaign and seems to be able to ride the blunders. Is it that the democratic structures within that party are tightly controlled or there are no effective structures to enable a solid challenge or is it because he quietly basks in relative obscurity? Perhaps his position post the next election may not be as secure as we all assume?

  • Mark McGregor

    Brian,

    I know. It was a more general comment on how you can get a truer picturer by more appropriate information.

    In this case national polling isn’t relevant as SF’s vote is concentrated in certain areas and targeted on that basis.

    Pat’s briefs shows this clearly and could lead to more informed discussion and the ability to predict more accurately.

    (me telling people this stuff wouldn’t carry any weight as I’m biased but Pat has the figures and emails them in a brief more detailed than the SBP coverage. A similar detailed brief from the IT would also inform the discussion further)

  • Brian Boru

    On the q of SF seats, I no longer expect them to score more than 1 r 2 gains. The most likely gain is in Donegal NE but another in Donegal SW cannot be ruled out where Pearse Doherty was level on 13% with FG’s Dinny McGinley TD but it’s unclear who will benefit most from transfers. On balance I would predict FG but I definitely cannot be sure because SF is not viewed as voter-repellent in Connaught-Ulster (where a recent poll put them on 17% of the vote) compared to the rest of the country. DSE is a toss-up with a poll a few weeks ago by IMS putting SF Daithi Doolan on 14% but apparently picking up few transfers. DSE is a 4 seater and I would not expect McDowell’s transfers to help SF given his public dislike for the “Marxist” party. Today’s Irish Times poll reportedly shows SF losing currency in Dublin and this would seem to have been confirmed by the recent Dublin Central IMS poll with MEP Mary-Lou McDonald on just 6% – a major blow after Nicky Kehoe came extremely close to ousting the second FF seat last time. I predict no more than 7 SF seats in total after next election – a gain of just 2.

  • Brian Boru

    “The most likely gain is in Donegal NE but another in Donegal SW cannot be ruled out where Pearse Doherty was level on 13% with FG’s Dinny McGinley TD but it’s unclear who will benefit most from transfers.”

    I am referring to a poll some months ago.

    Crataegus I have little real knowledge of Green party structures but the party actually had no position of party-leader until a few years ago when it was created for Trevor Sargent. There is also a party president.

  • Kathy_C

    posted by Kathy C

    Hi all, A drop by sf at the time they were getting press for st. andrews should be a warning flag for sf that they are in even more trouble than thought. sf is loosing it’s base and not bringing in any new base. I think the leadership should concider a big change because they are loosing ground rather than gaining.

  • Mark McGregor

    I don’t know if Slugger picked it up but the Indo had a piece that said Phil Flynn is now ML’s director of elections.

    A very heavy hitter drafted in. I’m sure Bertie isn’t happy at his Mr Fixit becoming her Mr Fixit in his own back yard.

  • Mark McGregor

    Above was for Brian not the American political analyst.

  • Crataegus

    Brian

    Thanks

    the party actually had no position of party-leader until a few years ago

    Says it all I suppose.

  • Greenflag

    Looks like the Slump coalition strategy to ‘get’ Bertie has blown up in their faeces .

    The step too far was in calling for the resignation of the government over Bertie’s personal issues .

    The Irish people know he made a mistake – 13 years ago . They just did’nt see that as sufficient reason for the opposition and media frenzy drummed up by the ‘slumpies’ . Listening to the Labour Party’s Gilmore pontificating on RTE as to why the opposition and especially the Labour Party seemed to come out the worst was almost funny .

    The election is already won lads . Bertie and Mick will be back for another term at least . Meanwhile FG, Labour and Greens can start looking for ‘new’ leaders for 2012 . On the other hand they might even start putting forward some ‘alternative’ policies instead of trying to muckrake their way into power.

  • Brian Boru

    New IMS poll tonight for Sunday Tribune:

    FF: 42% (+5)
    FG: 20% (-6)
    Labour 10% (-2)
    PD: 4% (unchanged)
    SF: 8% (unchanged)
    Greens: 6% (+1)
    Ind: 10% (+1)

    FF-PD: 46%
    FG/Lab/Green:36%

    Looks like McDowell may soon have reason to roll the “One Party Govt – No Thanks!” posters gathering dust in the closet since 2002 again!