Rumour Mill: O’Gorman to declare for the PDs?

Another scoop for blogdom? Well, we’ll see what happens in the morning. Slugger hears that Colm O’Gorman, director of One in Four is expected to declare for the PD’s tomorrow and to run for them in Wexford in the next Dail elections. Rumour also has it that he approached Labour, but that they were not interested.

  • Keith M

    RTE is now carrying the story as well, although they are not naming Labour directly, but saying that a “unnamed party” had used O’Gorman’s name on a dummy ballot paper.

    Wexford used to be the easiest constituency to call (2FF/2FG/1Lab), but now the PDs who would never have had a chance in normal circumstances (they haven’t even had a candidate since 1989) are in with a shout. If Parlon can take a seat in Laois/Offaly, then anything is possible.

  • Louise

    Howlin does not want a running mate – especially a high profile running mate who is well liked and honourable and not afraid of saying who he is. Labour’s loss is the PD’s gain.

  • middle-class taig

    All this will do is fragment the Rainbow and FF votes, lowering the threshold that Dwyer will need to reach in order to take a seat. Quota is about 16.7%. If Dwyer gets up to about 15% by the last count, I reckon he’s in with a shout. SF had about a 2% increas between the ’02 generals and the ’04 locals. Extrapolate to 2007 and add a few previously reticent transfers and he’s in the hunt. Will be interesting to see.

    O’Gorman hasn’t a snowball’s, especially seeing as he can’t decide whether he’s a champagne socialist or a right-wing maniac.

  • I don’t want to be cruel, but, to count as ‘a scoop’ wouldn’t one sodding person on the planet, other than his mother, have to heard of him?

  • O’Gorman is a good candidate, being as he is considered, eloquent and articulate. He is single issue, in a constituency where the issue is arguably more important than in any other. He is neither left or right wing, and is therefore nicely nicely in the middle. However, he will be affected by the PD badge. Apart from Sinn Fein, there is no other party that people actually hate more. Don’t get me wrong, the PD’s are successful and have their support base, but as McDowell put it, the party had to be either radical or redundant, and as a radical party, its extreme views in some areas has alienated large swathes of the population. I think O’Gorman’s chances will depend on the mood of the Wexford constituency towards the PD’s, but nevertheless he should get enough transfers from across the board to get him through, if he can survive long enough on first preferences. In a five seater, this is eminently possible.

  • Green Ink

    That’s a good observation. Don’t forget a factor in O’Gorman’s choice could be the PDs, specifically Liz O’Donnell, have been calling for a separation of the church and state particularly in education in recent times. The PD tag may not affect him too badly: the sh*t never sticks to the PDs the way it does to FF.

  • Keith M

    One other point that I forgot was that if O’Gorman should get through he wwas be the first opnly gay TD, and another taboo from the D”evil Era” will have been removed.

  • KOD

    It would be hard not to have heard of O’Gorman as he has been on the news regularly over the past number of years. He is an excellent speaker and will throw the cat among the pigeons in Wexford.

  • Henry94

    He would be a welcome addition to the Dail. The PD tag may cost him votes however.

  • páid

    Ok, good luck to him and all that, but doesn’t it say something about the lack of distinction between the parties when a guy tries for Labour, is rebuffed, and says ‘Oh well, now I am a PD”?

    Anyway if the ‘one in four’ bit is correct, he’ll win a seat, won’t he?

  • Mick Fealty

    Strikes me that this is a good move all round. Good for the party to have a quality and thoughtful player like O’Gorman – who can bring more breadth to the PDs offering.

    The PDs in turn are likely to give him more of his own head to than he might have expected in Labour. It says something too about the (IMHO false) characterisation of the PDs as a party of the right.

  • Keith M

    “Ok, good luck to him and all that, but doesn’t it say something about the lack of distinction between the parties when a guy tries for Labour, is rebuffed, and says ‘Oh well, now I am a PD”?

    The Labour rumour is only that, a rumour. It apparently comes from a straw poll that Labour did with O’Gorman’s name on it.

    “The PD tag may cost him votes however.” It didn’t do any damage to Tom Parlon. There is a big untapped well of goodwill for the PDs and running more candidates (esp of the calibre of O’Gorman, is a good way of getting it out. If O’Gorman goes on television as a potential PD representative, the en party gains beyond Wexford.

  • Henry94

    KiethM

    True, Parlon’s popularity out weighted the PD factor. Maybe it will work for O’Gorman too. But Parlon was a grass-roots man through the IFA. he would have won for any party. If O’Gorman wins then he too would win for any party.

    Your idea of bringing in high-profile candidates is no substitute for ground-work in the long run.

    Mick

    The PDs are as close to a party of the right as exists in the south. But it depends on definitions. For me right-wing in a modern context should mean believing in reducing the economic role of the state and cutting tax.

    Otherwise the term becomes one of abuse.

  • Sam Maguire

    Is he any relation of Wexford Hurling legend Larry O’Gorman?

  • Keith M

    Henry94 “If O’Gorman wins then he too would win for any party.” Have you ever heard of the self fulfilling prophacy? By your logic, if O’Gorman loses its because he was a PD, but if he wins, he would have won for any party. Believe it or not, standing as a PD is a big advantage for many people who are seeing benefits of having the PDs in government every time they check our payslips.

    “Your idea of bringing in high-profile candidates is no substitute for ground-work in the long run.”

    These aren’t so much “high profile candidates” as people who have shown their abilities in other areas. If you are looking for “high profile candidates” people like Mairead McGuinness of FG, would fit the bill more accuratly.

    “For me right-wing in a modern context should mean believing in reducing the economic role of the state and cutting tax.” For me this definition suits the term “liberal” rather than “right wing”. “Right wing” also has authoritarian conotations, an anathema for most PDs.

  • Henry94

    KeithM

    Believe it or not, standing as a PD is a big advantage for many people who are seeing benefits of having the PDs in government every time they check our payslips.

    The opinion polls don’t support that view. A late surge of FG switchers gave the PDs a result last time but they will lose seats at the next election.

  • Keith M

    Henry94 : “The opinion polls don’t support that view.”

    The opinion polss were wrong in 2002.

    “A late surge of FG switchers gave the PDs a result last time but they will lose seats at the next election.”

    The PDs are the only minor party to go into a coalition govenment and win seats as a result and the fourth most successful party in the history of the state. The Pds have a habit of defying the polls, the pundits and electoral history and I wouldn’t be certain that they’ll lose seats next year. O’Gorman has given them a chance of picking up at least one additional seat.

  • Ciaran Irvine

    An outside chance of picking up one, beside the 4 they are almost certain to lose, and two others that are dodgy? As things stand only Grealish and St Liz can be considered as holding safe seats.

    Come off it Keith.

    You can be as partisan as you like, but where you lose all credibility is when you act like some sort of spokesman for the One True Voice of the south and try to pretend that there’s just millions of southerners who think like you do. We all know your views are in no way representative of mainstream southern opinion. There are those who think like you, but youse are a small minority and everyone knows it.

  • Cataegus

    If he takes a seat who looses Liam Twomey?

  • Brian Boru

    “The PDs are the only minor party to go into a coalition govenment and win seats as a result and the fourth most successful party in the history of the state. The Pds have a habit of defying the polls, the pundits and electoral history and I wouldn’t be certain that they’ll lose seats next year. O’Gorman has given them a chance of picking up at least one additional seat.”

    Well if they can get a few more high-profile candidates than maybe. But if hes the only one then I suspect that the PD’s will still have fewer seats than last time because Mae Sexton won her seat in Longford-Roscommon only because she got 60% of FG transfers, and her constituency is now being partitioned in Longford-Westmeath and Roscommon-Leitrim. I don’t think she has a cat’s chance in hell of holding her seat. Fiona O’Malley in Dun Laoghaire is also fighting for her political life according to polls. The O’Malley seat in Limerick East is also uncertain. The PD’s will need a good few of these high-profile candidates even to hold onto its current position imho.

    I live in this constituency and will consider giving Colm my vote because I’m a great fan of McDowell and his plain-speaking on certain issues, and because I respect Colm.

  • Keith M

    Ciaran Irvine I notice that you choose not to argue with an of the facts I have posted and after that we’re down to opinion and as we are a year away from the election and I believe your analysis is far more shakey than mine. At the moment McDowell has the safest PD seat and Parlon and Harney are also pretty safe.

    I won’t resort to personal abuse
    but I would question whether my opinions are those of the minority as I my vote has gone to the government in every election since 1989 and the winning side in every referendum in the last decade. I doubt that is something you can say. So just who is unrepresentative?

  • Keith M

    Brian, God bless your certainty about Longford-Westmeath. Anyone I know is at a loss to find more than one or two safe seats.