JUST to add to what Mick wrote earlier regarding the review, it looks likely that there won’t be an independent chairman, but it will be chaired by the two governments – apart from Strand One matters, which the British will chair meetings alone. The choice of Irish chair will be interesting; Brian Cowen is unavailable because of EU Presidency commitments, while Michael McDowell may not be acceptable to Sinn Fein because of his recent statements criticising its links to the IRA.
While I understand no hard decisions have been made on the format, the governments would prefer to end the review by Easter – Good Friday 2004 is April 9. Sinn Fein would prefer if it only lasted one month, to reduce the opportunity for changes, while the DUP would like to spin it out as long as possible, in order to take electoral advantage in the EU (and possibly Westminster 2005) elections. Could we end up with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and 2004 Agreement Mk 2 falling on the same date? The Governments will love the symbolism, and no doubt plan accordingly. That means 10 weeks of negotiations, which translates into 20 plenary sessions – although a week will be lost due to the St Patrick’s Day celebrations in Washington. However, getting beyond April 9 will take us into the European election campaign, and after that we get into the marching season. If agreement isn’t reached reasonably quickly, it would be September, realistically, before everyone could get around the table again.
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