Alex Kane continues his narration of the recent crisis within the UUP, but predicting that Jeffrey Donaldson will choose to stay within the party rather than risk either setting up a new party or joining the DUP. However it is Trimble who Kane believes that will have the most to do in the months ahead.
ByAlex Kane
Last Monday�s set-to in the Ramada Hotel was, essentially, a dialogue of the deaf, conducted in one of Dante�s innermost circles of Hell. Both sides ignored each other, and the result (as predicted in this column) would have been exactly the same had the delegates voted at 7pm and then adjourned to the bar.
Jeffrey Donaldson lost because he had nothing new to offer. Yes, he spoke with passion; indeed, he performed like a Pentecostalist fuelled on Red Bull. But he didn�t seem to have realized that it was no longer enough to point out the flaws and failings of the existing process and institutions. If you want a change of policy and a change of direction, then it makes sense to let the audience have a glimpse of your road map.
That said, it was hard not to feel sorry for him. His cause was damaged by his supporters, many of whom were noisy, intolerant bigots. He also miscalculated his own importance. He gave the 809 delegates a choice. They made that choice, and in making it, let it be known to him that they were prepared to risk his departure from the party. It must have been a gut-wrenching result for him.
So, what are the options available to him? They are limited and unattractive. He now carries the baggage of a loser, someone unable to win the confidence of his own party. He could try and create some sort of electoral pact with the DUP, Bob McCartney and others. I suspect, though, that the DUP, having come within a whisker of being the largest unionist party, would be unwilling to join forces with a cabal of disgruntled egotists and professional publicity seekers. And, the fact of the matter is, previous unionist coalitions have not had a long or successful history. Those cobbled together in 1974, 1985 and 1998, collapsed in acrimony, absence of agreement and contradictory electoral demands.
He could accept the invitation to join the DUP. The problem, of course, is that the DUP does not encourage a culture of free thinking. The party is controlled from the centre and there are no vacancies for leader, or leadership heirs. If it accepted his membership, it would want him bound and gagged, to be used as a propaganda scalp. Until last Monday, former UUP member Peter Weir was the DUP�s weapon of choice to attack Donaldson. Yet, on Tuesday, Peter was trotted out, DUP script in hand, to tell Jeffrey that a happy home awaited him should he jump ship. Well, less of a happy home and more of a granny flat for distant ga-ga relatives.
Jeffrey may consider starting his own party. I wouldn�t advise it. Apart from being an expensive business, it usually ends in embarrassment and electoral failure. Just look at the fate which befell Brian Faulkner, Bill Craig and Bob McCartney. And who would follow him? Some, like David Burnside and Willy Ross, will stay put, for why play second fiddle in an offshoot, when they can continue to disrupt Trimble from within? Others will stay because they know that the DUP doesn�t want them as members. Also, many of the people who backed Jeffrey on Monday did so out of hatred for Trimble rather than loyalty to his challenger. They will now find someone else within the party to finish the job. Jeffrey would lead a leak, rather than a flood, of departing members. This, too, will be a gut-wrenching reality for him.
It is inconceivable, surely, that he would remain in the party? The attacks on him, and from him, were too bitter and personal. Let�s face it, how do you accuse 56% of the UUC of abandoning the cornerstone principles of unionism and then stay when it rejects your advice? Why talk of defining moments and then refuse to budge when the landscape has been redefined to something you fundamentally oppose? To stay in the UUP would be to invite accusations of hypocrisy from his opponents, and ridicule from former supporters.
While Jeffrey ponders his options (and, oddly enough, I think that he will swallow his pride, invent some excuses and stay in the party), David Trimble has some of his own to consider. He must acknowledge that he has won the showdown and begin to exert his control over the party. He needs to re-engage the grassroots and reach out to the wider pro-Union community—a much bigger constituency than most people imagine. But he needs to realize that this propaganda battle cannot be won from the comfort of Cunningham House, or by a couple of spokesmen over the airwaves. The selling of the message has been, at best, lacklustre, and, at worst, truly appalling.
He needs to promote new talent and new faces at constituency and media level; he needs to impose discipline—and he has far more clout there than he may know; and he needs to take institutional and constitutional control of the party machine. His support at branch level is much stronger than UUC results reflect, but that support needs to be encouraged. It needs to know that the leader is now free to lead and willing to lead. If constant meetings of the UUC is no way to run the party, then leaving your grassroots uninformed and uninspired is no way to run it, either.
Jeffrey claimed that Monday�s result would be a �Pyrrhic victory� for Mr.Trimble. He will be proved right if Trimble fails to accept the message of the result and act accordingly. This battle is far from over. Revenge and score settling will become the sole occupation of some people for the next few months. If the Trimble camp wants to win, then it really is about time that they got their act together and turned the party, the party machine and their everyday operation, into something that resembles a modern, attractive and vote-worthy political option.
This Column was first published in The Newsletter on Saturday June 21st
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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