SUN/Lucid Talk Poll shows majority voting to stay in the EU

A poll for The SUN conducted by Lucid Talk online with 2,886 responses (balanced by gender, age, area of residence and community background) shows a majority at this stage voting to stay within the European Union. (The poll has a margin of error of 3.9%)

The headline figures show that if a vote were held today 55% would vote to stay within the EU, 29.4% would vote to leave and more than 14% are undecided.

Breaking those figures down the poll finds;

Nationalists (Sinn Fein, SDLP, People Before Profit)

Stay in-74.07%

Leave- 10.49%

Undecided-14.81%

Wont vote- 0.62%

Unionists (DUP, UUP, TUV, UKIP, Conservatives, PUP)

Leave-63.6%

Stay- 20%

Undecided-16%

Wont vote- 0.4%

Others (Alliance/Greens etc)

Stay in- 82.39%

Leave- 6.29%

Undecided- 11.32%

I notice in the commentary box, Bill White from Lucid Talk says from his previous research in October that people wishing to stay in the EU is down 1.5%, whilst those wishing to leave is up 1%. He also notes that the number of Nationalists wishing to stay has fallen from 90% to 74%, with the bulk of that drop now undecided.

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  • Ernekid

    A TNS poll today showed that a slim majority of people wanted to Leave the EU at 39% to Leave and 36% to Stay.

    http://www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/leave-leads-voters-believe-uk-will-remain-within-eu

    It might be time for officials in London, Edinburgh, Belfast and Dublin to start figuring what exactly is going to happen if Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland vote to stay in but England votes to leave. It could very well be the end of the United Kingdom as we know it. I wouldn’t be very happy if Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU against its democratic will, Neither would the 81% of local business people who prefer to stay in the EU. Cameron is playing a very dangerous game here. He’s made a balls of this renegotiation and it could very well trigger an enormous constitutional crisis.

  • Neil

    I’ve always thought Brexit leaning Unionists had a lot in common with the proverbial festive minded turkey. I also saw on twitter that the Sun appeared to have a headline saying Ulster says Go but the text was too small to read. Surely that cannot be in reference to this survey? Or is it that Unionists say “Go”, and they’re extrapolating that to everyone and applying a label that includes 3 counties of Ireland that are neither Unionist nor say “Go”.

  • Tochais Siorai

    Indeed. Brexit Unionists should be very careful what they wish for. A Brexit will hasten the next Scot Indyref and a YES there will shine a huge spotlight on NI.

    There may be interesting times ahead.

  • Karl

    May you live in interesting times.

  • Robin Keogh

    Well this is very good news for Ireland so lets hope cameron wins through. its a scary thought that one part of the country would be in thr EU with the northern part outside ;(

  • Kevin Breslin

    A lot of the talk has been about the English voting Northern Ireland out of the European Union.

    However I don’t think even the English population matches these figures for Unionism when it comes to leaving the European Union. I’d imagine these results would alter if the demographic is broadens beyond the demographic that has time to waste doing Lucid Talk polls.

    Wouldn’t it be strange and somewhat ironic if all England’s regions, Scotland, Wales vote to stay in while Northern Ireland futilely votes overall to get out against the trend in Great Britain, not because of Irish nationalism, or others who are agnostic on the issue, but because of Unionism?

  • Kevin Breslin

    I would say a Scottish referendum could be avoided if there was a severe concerted effort to appeal to them from south of Hadrian’s Wall … but then again even the Scottish Tories are fearing a Brexit on Scotland’s economy, the South East English Tories wanting out are hardly going to throw them any thin gruel their way.

  • Gingray

    Like Kevin below, I have my doubts on this Lucid talk poll – it seems to be underestimating the Unionist voting population.

    In the 2015 election Unionists got around 50%, with 40% nationalist and 10% other.

    Using those figures with the split within each group as shown above, we get 48% to stay, 37% to go and 15% unsure, a much closer contest.

  • Karl

    Are you implying that unionism could be found out to be out of step with britishness as it exists in Britain? You take that back now sir. Now. ;0)

  • Karl

    Dont worry, it wouldnt last long.

  • Karl

    The Scots wont fall for the love bombing a second time. Fool me once…. If UK leaves the EU, Scotland will be gone within a year and all the arguments about an unknown future will have been used up by the Tories in their arguments to leave the EU.

  • Ernekid

    I really doubt that many rural voters will be voting for Exit when the realise that the scale of the subsidy that Europe has on agriculture here. The unionist base will be very pragmatic when it comes to this choice

  • Kevin Breslin

    Well if it is the case, I think someone in Sinn Féin suggested, possibly Martina Anderson has pointed out they can try to negotiate exemptions if there’s a Brexit.

    I’m not sure if there are specialist regional examples, there are special arrangements for semi-autonomous regions outside the EU like Kalingrad for example or Kosovo, but I’m not an expert.

    This logic can of course be reversed too, as a ridiculous hypothetical if it matters so much to us Northern Ireland folk we could vote to end the Union, and opt for “colony status” outside the EU like the Faroese and the Greenlandics do with Denmark, colony status meaning any dependency status such as British colony or crown dependency status.

    Whether Irish nationalists would take an end to the union by colony status over integrated into union as a gradualism step towards Irish unity would be an interesting pickle.

  • chrisjones2

    A lot tighter that I thought. I am really surprised

  • chrisjones2

    i am not sure …the EU might stagger on for 20 years or so before it implodes

  • chrisjones2

    So what. This is not Scotland

  • chrisjones2

    They also wont fall for the $100 oil promise again. But in the end it is a matter for the Scots innit

  • Graham Parsons

    It’s about time people started calling out the idiot unionist politicians supporting exit from the EU. How they can be calling for an EU exit while at the same time looking for a cut in corporation tax is idiotic. Asking the farming community to vote out is also hilariously stupid. Taking the risk of losing an EU subsidy based on a promise to make up the difference by George Osborne is monumentally foolish.

    Unionist politicians are risking the fragile economy of Northern Ireland based on their small minded xenophobia.

  • kensei

    Sometimes for all the talk of uniting the people and how we are similar and the rest, I see something and I despair because Unionist attitudes just seem completely alien to me. Just beyond my experience or understanding.

    The Greek saga totally rocked my faith in the EU but an exit would be a disaster for Northern Ireland.

  • Heather Richardson

    I don’t think the English are ‘unionists’ as we think of them here in NI. (Warning! – Sweeping generalisation coming up!) An English person’s idea of Britishness is that British=English. If anything, I’d say English brexit fans are nationalists rather than unionists. English nationalists, that is.

    It should be an interesting few months!

  • Karl

    I’d happily go down a swiss route and take cantonal / town land / district into Ireland on a case by case basis.
    The timefor the big bang integration was the 1920s.
    This is how building trust can be demonstrated. I’d go for 60% in favour. No smaller than 10,000 people.

  • Angry Mob

    Maybe it’s time we started calling out the idiot EU-philes supporting ever closer union with the EU.

    Paying X, for another layer of unnecessary government to receive part of X back as PEACE grants or CAP is insane.

  • Graham Parsons

    For the angry mob outers this is about immigration pure and simple. Don’t pretend to me that this is an economic problem. You need your head examined if you think we’ll be economically better off out of the EU.

  • Angry Mob

    I find it interesting how you seem to be able read the mind of every single person wishing to vote out.

    You’re right though, the main issue isn’t about economics, at worst we pay the same as now, at best we save a few billion. Eventually we make new trade agreements that we weren’t able to before.

    The main issue for me anyway is sovereignty. The ability to remain an independent nation, to make our own laws, trade agreements etc is of vital importance.

  • Graham Parsons

    You can’t seem to make up your mind.

    Yea sure it’s about sovereignty. That’s just marketing speak for control of our own borders and thus immigration.

  • Angry Mob

    How can I not make up my mind, I have stated that sovereignty is the most important issue for me?

    How about the word xenophobia, is that marketing speak for not having decent arguments so attack the opposition instead?

  • Kevin Breslin

    The English are the most “European” of people on these islands, for a number of factors proximity, heritage, culture even their insularism seems to hark back to the continental Europeans.

    Any English person who underestimates how much influence their fellow nationals have had in making the European Union the way it is, warts and all, every bit of diversity, every bit of unity, every bit of in it. Many on the Leave side don’t really understand how far they are from getting the mandate for changing it either way the referendum goes.

  • chrisjones2

    DAVE SAVES THE DAY!!!

  • Gareth Murray

    In just about every news discussion, anti brexit folk are constantly banging on about a ring of steel being placed around the NI/RoI border should the UK leave the EU.

    Utter nonsense, weak argument and scaremongering only comparable with the pish that was spouted in the run up to Y2K.

    The pro EU campaign will need to start putting together coherent arguments and stop the scare tactics.

  • Gareth Murray

    Yes, I keep hearing it’ll be a disaster for Northern Ireland, but yet to hear why.

  • jeep55

    Yes the figures only stack up if there has been about a 10% swing from Unionist to Other. Good news for Alliance/Greens?

  • Pete

    Wow, amazed so many unionists are backing “leave”.

  • Cavehill

    PBP are counted as nationalist? I guess they are, but they’ve also stated they would sit as ‘other’ in the Assembly.

  • Tochais Siorai

    It certainly isn’t, the main difference being that Scotland can stand on its own two feet. As we all know, NI can’t and thus needs to avoid that big spotlight.

    Unionists, Brexit. Turkey, Christmas.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    The fellow taking his hat off .22 sec in is the director of the Newsreel. I worked with his daughter in the film business once, and any time we saw this clip together she’d say quietly “Hello daddy….”

  • SeaanUiNeill

    My wife is wondering just how many Unionist farmers will begin to opt for a United Ireland when the pots of gold the DUp are promising them fail to materialise. To hear some of the DUP talk, you’d think that the entire reason for an exit would be that the Chancellor of the Exchequer would be panting to thrust out strongly improved farm payments to every Unionist voter who even had a window box………