Slugger O'Toole

Conversation, politics and stray insights

Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist

Wed 19 December 2012, 3:20pm

Analysis by Colm Ó Broin

(English version below).

Ceann de na torthaí is suimiúla ó Dhaonáireamh an Tuaiscirt a foilsíodh an tseachtain seo caite ná líon na ndaoine a rinne cur síos orthu féin mar ‘Northern Irish’. 29% den phobal in iomlán a bhí ann.

Ón anailís atá déanta ag Gaelscéal, is cosúil gur daoine ó chúlra Caitliceach a formhór den ‘Northern Irish’ agus go vótálann siad ar son páirtithe Náisiúnacha.

As an 29% a dúirt go raibh siad ‘Northern Irish’ tá 7% a deir go bhfuil siad Briotanach chomh maith.

Má chuirtear líon na ndaoine a dúirt go raibh siad ‘Irish’ agus ‘Northern Irish’ amháin le chéile tá an suim nach mór díreach mar an gcéanna le líon na gCaitliceach.

Is amhlaidh atá sé le líon na bProtastúnach nuair a chuirtear na daoine a dúirt sa Daonáireamh go raibh siad Briotanach le chéile.

Arís eile, tá an-chosúlacht idir líon na gCaitliceach, líon na ‘Irish’ agus ‘Northern Irish’ agus na vótaí a fuair Sinn Féin, an SDLP agus Náisiúntóirí eile anuraidh.

Tá an gaol céanna le feiceáil ar an taobh Protastúnach, Briotanach, Aontachtach, mar a léiríonn na táblaí seo.

 Ceantar  Cait.  Irish/NI’  Vóta Náis.

Iúr & Múrna 79%  75%           78%

An Ómaigh 70%    67%           68%

An Srath Bán 65% 65%           63%

Fear Manach 59% 58%           56%

Béal Feirste 49%   51%           48%

Ard Mhacha 48% 51%           46%

Dr. na Banna 32% 36%          25%

Baile Monaidh 32% 37%     30%

Baile Meánach 23% 27%     17%

 Ceantar         Prot.   Briotanach   Vóta Aon.

Iúr & Múrna   18%      20%                      19%

An Ómaigh    27%      28%                       31%

An Srath Bán 34%     33%                       37%

Fear Manach 38%    37%                        42%

Béal Feirste     42%   42%                       36%

Ard Mhacha 48%     44%                        54%

Dr. na Banna 62%    61%                        69%

Baile Monaidh 63%  60%                      70%

Baile Meánach 71% 68% 81%

(An t-aon áit nach bhfuil gaol díreach idir líon na ‘Irish/Northern Irish’ agus an vóta náisiúnach ná in gceantracha in oirthear TÉ áit a fhaigheann an Comhaontas vóta ard).

Mar sin, cén fáth go bhfuil daoine a vótálann do pháirtithe atá ar son Éire Aontaithe ag déanamh cur síos orthu féin mar ‘Northern Irish’. Bhailigh Gaelscéal tuairimí ó pholaiteoirí ar fud an Tuaiscirt agus ó ghnáth daoine san Ómaigh faoin gceist seo.

“Bheadh roinnt Caitliceach sa cheantar nach bhfuil ag iarraidh Éireannaigh a ghlaoch orthu féin toisc nach bhfuil siad ina gcónaí sa Phoblacht,” arsa Stephen Huggett, Comhairleoir Chontae le Sinn Féin ón nGarasún i bhFear Manach.

“Bheadh daoine ann a vótálann ar son an SDLP agus bheadh dearcadh fíorchríochdheighilteach, fíorfrithphoblachtánach acu.”

Tá dúshlán ann do phoblachtánaigh chun na daoine seo a mhealladh i dtreo Éire Aontaithe dar le Huggett.

“ Mar shampla, bheadh go leor Caitliceach sa státchóras – cé mhéad acu a chaillfeadh a gcuid post dá gcomhnascfaí an dá státchóras?”

Téarma tíreolaíochta atá in ‘Northern Irish’, ní ráiteas polaitiúil atá ann, dar le comhairleoirí de chuid an SDLP, Colin Keenan, ó iarthar Bhéal Feirste.

“Ó thaobh na ndaoine a labhraím leo, ní fheiceann siad difríocht mhór idir Éireannach agus Northern Irish; is fochatagóir de ‘Éireannach’ atá ann.

“Déarfainn féin gur Éireannach mé ach uaireanta deirfinn gur ‘Northern Irish’ mé ag brath ar an gcomhthéacs, mar shampla nuair a bhím ag cruinnithe le comhairleoirí ón Deisceart dhéanfainn cur síos orm féin in amanna mar ‘Northern Irish’ agus déarfainn gur ‘Southern Irish’ iad na comhairleoirí eile. Is rud é a thugann le fios go bhfuil tú i do chónaí i dTuaisceart Éireann, sin é.”

Tháinig Gaelscéal ar dhuine a oibríonn in oifig de chuid Shinn Féin fiú a rinne cur síos uirthi féin sa Daonáireamh mar ‘Northern Irish’.

“Bheadh go leor daoine sa cheantar a déarfadh go raibh siad ‘Northern Irish’,” ar sise. “Is mothúchán atá againn nach ‘Éireannaigh iomlána’ muid. Má deireann muid gur Éireannaigh muid bíonn Aontachtóirí sa bhaile de shíor a rá linn nach Éireannaigh muid, gur Briotanaigh muid. Níl muid chun ‘Briotanach’ a chur ar an daonáireamh ar ndóigh, ach níor cheap muid go bhféadfadh muid ‘Éireannach ‘ a roghnú.

“Is an dearcadh atá ag daoine eile orainn atá i gceist; bíonn daoine ag rá go bhfuil muid ina ‘Northern Irish’ agus nach bhfuil muid rangaithe mar ‘Éireannaigh’.

“Sin an mothúcháin atá againn, nach rangaíonn daoine ó Dheas muid mar Éireannaigh, ach mar Bhriotanaigh.

“Tá rudaí ag athrú, áfach, tá níos mó daoine sásta a rá gur Éireannaigh iad agus tá níos mó daoine ag teacht chugainn le pas Éireannach a fháil mar shampla,” ar sise.

Labhair Anton Mac Cába le daoine san Ómaigh, atá ar an gceantar ba mhó ó Thuaidh ar thug daoine ‘Northern Irish’ orthu féin sa daonáireamh.

As 22 duine, dúirt seisear gur Éireannaigh iad, dúirt fear amháin gur Eorpach é, agus 15 go mbeadh siad sásta ‘Northern Irish’ a thabhairt orthu féin.

Luadh cúiseanna áirithe leis seo.

Fear Caitliceach, 30í: “Níor mhaith liom a bheith i mo Bhriotanach, níor mhaith liom a bheith i m’Éireannach, níl Éire Aontaithe de dhíth orm, níor mhaith liom go mbeadh mo phá in euro, tá an t-airgead maith go leor anseo.”

Bean mheánaosta: “go dtugann sí ‘Northern Irish’ uirthi féin toisc go bhfuil cónaí uirthi in Éirinn, ach sa Tuaisceart.

“Is cinnte nach Briotanach mé, agus ní dóigh liom go bhfuil muid de dhíth ar an bPoblacht – agus níl go leor airgid agam le maireachtáil ann.”

Dúirt bean eile gur Éireannach í “mar go bhfuil mé i mo chónaí in Éirinn.”

Dúirt fear a bhí sna daicheadaí nár shíl sé gur Briotanach ná Éireannach é.

“Nílimid de dhíth ar cheachtar den dá dhream; agus sin ráite, tá pas Éireannach agam, ní ceann Briotanach atá agam.”

Thug fear de bhunadh Mhuineacháin le fios go n-amharcann a pháistí orthu féin mar ‘Northern Irish’. “Tá siad ar an ollscoil i mBaile Átha Cliath. Dar leo níl siad de dhíth ar an Deisceart.”

Tá an tuairim nach bhfuil daoine sa Deisceart ar son Éire Aontaithe spéisiúil i gcomhthéacs an tsuirbhé a d’fhoilsigh an Irish Times an mhí seo caite a thug le fios go vótáladh 88% den phobal (daoine gan tuairim as an áireamh) ar son Éire Aontaithe agus go raibh 77% sásta vótáil ar a son fiú dá mbeadh orthu níos mó cánach íoc.

Drochscéal do Shinn Féin agus an SDLP atá sa líon daoine ó chúlra Caitliceach, Náisiúnach a dúirt go raibh siad ‘Northern Irish’ sa daonáireamh, ach seans nach ráiteas láidir ar son an Aontais atá ann ach an oiread, mar atá á maíomh ag an DUP agus an UUP.

 Leagan Béarla

One of the most interesting results of the census published last week was the number of people describing themselves as ‘Northern Irish’.

Based on analysis done by Gaelscéal, it seems that most of them are from a Catholic background and that they vote for nationalist parties.

Of the 29% who say they are Northern Irish, 7% are also British.

If you add the number of people who said they were British under the various headings, the total is almost identical to the number of Protestants.

The number of Catholics is also similar to the number of people who said they were Irish only, Northern Irish only or Irish and Northern Irish only.

There is also a strong correlation between the number of Catholics, Irish and Northern Irish and the nationalist vote.

The same relationship is seen with the British, Protestant and Unionist percentages, as these tables (with rounded figures from 2011) show.

 LGD Cath. Irish/NI Nat. Vote

Newry &Mourne 79% 75% 78%

Omagh 70% 67% 68%

Strabane 65% 65% 63%

Fermanagh 59% 58% 56%

Belfast 49% 51% 48%

Armagh 48% 51% 46%

Banbridge 32% 36% 25%

Ballymoney 32% 37% 30%

Ballymena 23% 27% 17%

 

LGD Prot. British Un. Vote

Newry &Mourne 18% 20% 19%

Omagh 27% 28% 31%

Strabane 34% 33% 37%

Fermanagh 38% 37% 42%

Belfast 42% 42% 36%

Armagh 48% 44% 54%

Banbridge 62% 61% 69%

Ballymoney 63% 60% 70%

Ballymena 71% 68% 81%

There is some variation in the figures. It seems more people from a PUL background say they are ‘Northern Irish only’ east of the Bann while more CNR people vote for Alliance and possibly Unionist parties in places with large Unionist majorities like Ballymena, Ards, Carrickfergus and Newtownabbey.

(We’ll publish full figures once we’re worked out for all areas what side of the fence, if any, Independent councillors elected last year are on).

So then, why are people who vote for United Ireland parties describing themselves as ‘Northern Irish’?

We spoke to politicians and ordinary members of the public to get their views.

“Some Catholics in the area would not want to call themselves Irish because they don’t live in the Republic,” said Stephen Huggett, a Sinn Féin County Councillor from Garrison, Fermanagh, originally from London.

“There would be people who vote for the SDLP who have a very partitionist and very anti-republican attitude.”

Republicans face a big challenge in persuading them to vote for a United Ireland, he said.

“For example, a lot of Catholics would be in the civil service, how many of them would lose their jobs if the two civil services were merged?”

According to Belfast SDLP Councillor, Colin Keenan, ‘Northern Irish’ is a geographical term, not a political statement.

“In terms of people I speak to they don’t see a big difference between Irish and Northern Irish, it’s a subcategory of Irish.

“I would say I’m Northern Irish sometimes, depending on the context, for example if I was meeting with councillors from the South I’d say they’re Southern Irish and I’m Northern Irish. It’s just something that lets people know you’re from Northern Ireland, that’s it.”

A Sinn Féin constituency office worker told Gaelscéal that she and many others in her town would call themselves Northern Irish.

“It’s a feeling you have that you’re not fully Irish. If you say you’re Irish unionists in the town will tell you that you’re not, that you’re British. We’re not going to put British on the census.”

‘Northern Irish’ is how she feels others view her, not her own personal attitude.

“People say we’re Northern Irish and that we’re not classed as Irish. That’s the feeling we have, that people in the South don’t class us as Irish, but as British.

“Things are changing though, there are more people here saying they are Irish and more people coming to the office about getting an Irish passport.”

Anton Mac Cába spoke to people in Omagh, the most Northern Irish place in Northern Ireland, according to the census.

Out of 22, 15 said they would call themselves Northern Irish, six said Irish and one said European.

A number of common themes emerged – the financial implications of a United Ireland and the view that the North is not wanted by the Republic.

Here’s a sample of what they said.

A young couple with two children: “We don’t feel either British or Irish.”

A man in his 20s who called himself ‘European’: “I don’t really care. It’s a f***ed up country.”

A woman, who said her father was from Galway: “We live in the island of Ireland, I feel more Irish, I have a lot of friends down south.”

A middle-aged woman: “If I’m filling in an official form I put British, and I have a British passport. If I’m asked where I’m from, I say Northern Irish.”

Young woman: “Irish – I live on the island of Ireland.”

A man in his Thirties, who said he was Catholic: “I don’t want to be British, I don’t want to be Irish, I don’t want a United Ireland, I don’t want to be paid in euros, the money is good enough. F*** the Tricolour, f*** the Union Jack, give us our own flag.”

A woman with teenage daughter: “Because were part of the North, we’re Northern Irish.”

A middle aged woman: “Because we live in Ireland, live in the North. We’re definitely not British, we’re not Irish because I don’t think the Republic wants us – and don’t think I could afford to live there.”

A woman in her thirties: “Because I live in Northern Ireland.”

A man in his forties: “Irish – I’m not into the politics of it.”

A man in his forties: “I don’t think I’m Irish or British, neither wants us, we have our own identity. Having said that, I hold an Irish passport, not a British one.”

A man in his fifties: “I’m Irish, because I was born and raised in Co Monaghan, I have no problem with my identity. The two eldest (children) see themselves as Northern Irish, they’re at university in Dublin, they find the South doesn’t want them.”

Pensioner, Presbyterian: “Because we’re part of British. If you asked me if I was Irish, I’d probably say yes, if I was asked a bit more explicit, I’d say Northern Irish.

A woman in her late forties: “Irish – I don’t know, I just do.”

A woman in her thirties: “Irish – I live in Ireland.”

The views on the Republic are of particular interest given the survey published by the Irish Times recently showing that 88% of people (excluding don’t knows) support a United Ireland, and that 77% would vote for unity even if they had to pay more tax to fund it.

The numbers of people from a nationalist background saying they’re ‘Northern Irish’ is bad news for Sinn Féin and the SDLP, but it may not be the emphatic endorsement of the Union as claimed by the DUP and UUP either.

Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Delicious Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Digg Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Facebook Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Google+ Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on LinkedIn Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Pinterest Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on reddit Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on StumbleUpon Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Twitter Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Add to Bookmarks Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Email Share 'Gaelscéal: Most ‘Northern Irish’ vote nationalist' on Print Friendly

Comments (24)

  1. iluvni (profile) says:

    It’ll hardly be too long until we hear SF/sdlp using ‘North of Irish’, such is their hatred of anything Northern Ireland.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  2. Kevsterino (profile) says:

    As long as I don’t have to call someone at Malin Head ‘Southern Irish’, I’m ok with Northern Ireland. The whole name thing is one of the sillier aspects of the conflict from where I sit.

    The term ‘Londonderry’ causing offense is much easier to understand.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  3. JR (profile) says:

    I never minded the term Northern Irish, the one thing that really grinds my gears though is people refering to the 26 counties as Ireland. Many of my friends from dublin do this and it winds me up.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  4. TwilightoftheProds (profile) says:

    JR-

    The official name of the ’26 counties is ‘Ireland’ or ‘Eire’ in Irish. Its in their constiution. ‘Republic of Ireland’ is just a description of the state- a piece of jiggery pokery as they left the commonwealth.

    Kevsterino- Whatsso offensive about ‘Londonderry’- I use both derry, londonderry and a host of other pejorative terms for that city- are you trying to undo the plantation- shouldn’t we call it county coleraine then?

    The initial post is probably correct about ‘norn Irish’ being preferred by Nats-bears out earlier polls- but its still fairly popular amongst prods too….

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  5. Kevsterino (profile) says:

    Twilight – To be clear, no, I’m not trying to ‘undo the plantation’. The plantation is people, and I do not favor rubbing them out or running them off. They’re born there and have a natural right to remain there.

    What is so objectionable about ‘Londonderry’ is that in a part of the world so emphatic about the just power of local democracy, the people who live there are denied the ability to name their town what they wish. The insistence of holding on to a name regarded as unsuitable by the vast majority of those who live there looks oppressive to me.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  6. Kevsterino The unionist politicians from the city itself are positively neurotic in the obsession with using this clumsy and basically unfriendly name which they insist on government documents having exclusively to use it instread of the more friendly Derry. Because they do this for reasons of spite at having lost power which they never should have had and they didn’t insist on this prefix during their years in the old corrupt corporation. One of them even objects to the city of culture usage of both versions because it has Derry placed first, and we know who that is. .

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  7. Reader (profile) says:

    While admitting it is difficult to make the numbers add up without reaching the conclusion in the title of this piece, I was intrigued that the article specified “Of the 29% who say they are Northern Irish, 7% are also British.”, but there wasn’t a number for the number who are “also Irish”. Given the title of the article, that number would be interesting too.
    One further thing: About half of the people who filled in the census don’t vote at all, so the title of this piece is still speculation – until you know what non-voters filled in on the census.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  8. Kevsterino (profile) says:

    I think it would be amusing if some Irish colonists from Derry built a settlement in Ayrshire and called it Derryayr. But I digress…

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  9. between the bridges (profile) says:

    Ciaran, the answer you seek is while many members of the CNINR community vote for UI parties they wouldn’t vote for an UI. simples.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  10. sonofstrongbow (profile) says:

    Sitting on the cusp of 2013 and Londonderry as UK City of Culture you’d think that nationalists would park the Year Zero History Rewrite thingy.

    Londonderry exists as Londonderry because of its history. No amount of wishful thinking (or road sign vandalism) will change that.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  11. David Crookes (profile) says:

    Kevsterino, you should write a novel entitled ‘Inertia in Ayrshire’.

    Years ago, when Mark Durcan became a kind of SDLP Dauphin, he was described humorously and without embarrassment by many of his coreligionists as the Londonderry Heir.

    The Sea of Galilee is called the Sea of Tiberias in John 21. 1. I like that. No prickly postcolonialism. If you know who you are, a lot of things don’t matter. None of my Protestant friends in [London]derry ever uses anything but the two-syllable form of their city’s name.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  12. ayeYerMa (profile) says:

    Kevsterino, is that why polls and public consultations of people in Londonderry show that people do not want to change the name?

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  13. Neil (profile) says:

    aYM,

    What polls are they? All I can find is this one:

    An equality impact assessment (EQIA) was instigated to advise how the resolution could best be implemented. An opinion poll of district residents was commissioned in 2009, which reported that 75% of Catholics and 77% of Nationalists found the proposed change acceptable, compared to 6% of Protestants and 8% of Unionists.[36] It found 76% of Protestants and 79% of Unionists preferred the name “Londonderry” while 94% of Catholics and Nationalists preferred “Derry”.[37] Overall, 26% found the proposal “very acceptable”, 27% “acceptable”, 6% “unacceptable”, and 8% “totally unacceptable”, while 32% had “no strong views”.[38]

    So that would be 53% say acceptable or better, while 14% said unacceptable or worse (32% abstain).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derry/Londonderry_name_dispute#Debate_on_renaming_the_city

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  14. SOS,

    You are quite correct. The city has a wonderful history and wasn’t much of a settlement until it became Londonderry. But most people I knew/know from there, both religions, simply call it Derry. Similar to Ards, for example, or Carrick.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  15. David Crookes (profile) says:

    The name of Derry, being rooted in the Irish word for ‘oak’, is related to words like Dryad and Druid. It takes us back to a time when most of Ireland was covered with hardwood trees. We need to get back to that, or part of the way back to it. Some of the tree-covered islands in Lough Erne give us an idea of what things could be like.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  16. David,

    England was similar until Henry started his ship building program. Neither they nor we would likely have many trees left if iron hadn’t become supreme.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  17. comhfhreagrai eachtrannach (profile) says:

    Sílim go bhfuil gá ann le reifreann go luath faoin teorainn. Sin an t-aon bhealach le fáil amach go díreach cá mhéad daoine atá dáiríre faoi Éirinn aontaithe, agus an t-aon dóigh le bheith cinnte cad iad na himpleachtaí a bhaineann leis an líon measartha suntasach de dhaoine a thugann Éireannaigh Tuaisceartacha orthu féin anois. (Ní maith liom an téarma nua-chumtha ‘tuaisceartóir’ agus níl lá rúin agam é a úsáid.)
    Beidh reifreann ann in Albain agus sa Chatalóin i 2014. Ba chóir go mbeadh a leithéid againn abhus i gcionn cúpla bliain fosta. Feictear dom go bhfuil na polaiteoirí aontachtacha níos mó in éadan a leithéid ná na náisiúnaithe… An bhfuil siad buartha faoin toradh a d’fhéadfadh a bheith ann. Níl mé ag rá go mbeadh an bua againn mar náisiúnaithe ach thiocfadh leis go mbeadh an toradh clósáilte go leor.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  18. David Crookes (profile) says:

    Indeed, Mister_Joe: ‘heart of oaks are our ships’.

    Iron! It’s funny to think of what the metallic world was like in the days before stainless steel. If you really were a knight in shining armour, it meant that your poor squire had been cleaning the rust off your armour with a handful of sand for a good part of every day. No Brillo pads.

    When I was in Africa I often saw ladies cleaning their pots with handfuls of sand in the old manner. A couple of them were good enogh to smooth my shirts for me with an iron which they heated over an outdoor fire. We need to get back to that.

    Or back to Ireland. Watch ‘Smelt 2010 Documentary’ on the internet if you have time.

    It’s fun to do things instead of merely reading about them.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  19. simtrib (profile) says:

    Some points.

    If you add the number of people who said they were British under the various headings, the total is almost identical to the number of Protestants.

    This assumes that no Catholics would call themselves British, according to the last NILT when asked which best describes them 8% of Catholics say British as their first choice.

    In the last NILT

    Catholics

    British – 8%
    Irish – 58%
    Northern Irish 25%

    Protestants

    British – 61%
    Irish – 4%
    Northern Irish – 28%

    No religion

    British – 33%
    Irish – 18%
    Northern Irish – 37%

    In the census 41% said they were Catholic, 42% said they were Protestant and 17% were other.

    Doing a quick matrix in Excel that would all seem to imply that

    Those who called themselves British were roughly
    10% Catholic
    74% Protestant
    16% Other

    Those who called themselves Irish were roughly
    83% Catholic
    6% Protestant
    11% Other

    Those who called themselves Northern Irish were roughly
    36% Catholic
    42% Protestant
    22% Other

    Though the above is very rough and ready. I don’t really see any reason to believe that those who called themselves Northern Irish in the census aren’t about two fifths Catholic, two fifths Protestant and one fifth other. Presumably these figures might actually be eventually released, but I’d trust the NILT analysis as being more representative of the census than the assumptions in this article are. Assuming that no Catholics would call themselves British is a fatal flaw in the assumptions used.

    So then, why are people who vote for United Ireland parties describing themselves as ‘Northern Irish’?

    25% say they are Irish only and 28% say they are Irish.
    About 23% of the electorate vote for the SDLP or Sinn Fein in a typical election (assume 42% vote share on a 55% turnout).

    Now I’m not saying it’s so simple that those Catholics who call themselves Irish have a near 100% turnout and that those who call themselves Northern Irish have a very small turnout that all votes Alliance, but I’d not be surprised if there was not a significant skew in those directions, and that Catholics who call themselves Northern Irish were not disproportionately in the garden centre on election day compared to their religious compatriots who call themselves Irish.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  20. simtrib (profile) says:

    Here’s an interesting graph, not produced by myself, showing the non-correlation of “Northern Irish” identity with religion. I disagree with the conclusion that “Northern Irish” are mostly Catholics or the reason given by the author for that being the case and I don’t think that his argument makes sense. If “Northern Irish” were mostly Catholics then it should be a diagonal descending line in the graph.

    http://hardcorefornerds.tumblr.com/post/37736888160

    Also there is a false meme going around that “Northern Irish” is a new identity. It’s as old as the hills and hasn’t really increased or decreased as far as I can see, other than becoming more popular as an alternate to “Ulster”.

    An interesting feature of the graph is how the gap between the two green lines closes as you move to the right. This indicates that Catholics who live in majority unionist areas are less likely to call themselves Irish than those who live in majority nationalist areas. Presumably they are therefore more likely to call themselves Northern Irish or British.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 1
  21. DoppiaVu (profile) says:

    Simtrib

    “Doing a quick matrix in Excel…”

    I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve seen dodgy figures and made-up extrapolations on Slugger. So I’m delighted to see that someone is prepared to do what I never could be @rsed to, and bang it all into a spreadsheet.

    “Here’s an interesting graph…”

    Ahh…bliss…

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  22. boondock (profile) says:

    Simtrib I have been looking at the figures.
    If I combine the census results ie 41% catholic 42% Protestant and 17% other with the NILT findings that gives us a breakdown of

    British 34.5%
    Irish 28.5%
    Norhern Irish 28.3%
    None 8.7

    So you can decide for yourselves if that correlates with the 40% British, Irish 25% and Northern Irish 21%

    Not too sure about the figures in your excel because when I use the identity and religion and work back of the 86% who declared a single identity that gives me 32.3% catholic 39.9 Protestant and 13.8% other meaning of all the multiple combinations the majority are from the catholics and that would include all the British combinations which doesnt sound right.

    Finally the graph you included to me actually shows the reverse to what you said. The 2 green lines are parallel or even diverge slightly ie the surrounding demographics make no difference to the identity of a catholic or if anything the more unionist an area is the more likely a catholic is to identify as Irish

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  23. Tochais Síoraí (profile) says:

    So. Unionists are from Northern Ireland but they’re not Northern Irish. Nationalists, on the other hand are not from Northern Ireland but they are Northern Irish.

    Ok, who wants to explain that one to the tourists?

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0
  24. weidm7 (profile) says:

    Very interesting, especially that a lot of people were saying ‘the south doesn’t want us’. It’s up to the nationalist parties to take up this challenge, show them those opinion polls from the Irish Times and comission new ones. It’s also a challenge to the partitionist southern parties to show their northern compatriots that they are indeed a cherished part of the nation and not a forgotten footnote of history. I believe RTÉ has a big role to play in this.

    What do you think?
    (Log in or register to judge or mark as offensive)
    Commend 0

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Copyright © 2003 - 2014 Slugger O'Toole Ltd. All rights reserved.
Powered by WordPress; produced by Puffbox.
142 queries. 1.024 seconds.