Friday Thread: What makes for a reliable economic/political superpredictor?

To quote the blurb… You don’t have to be a mystic to tell the future. Or at least that’s what political scientists would have you believe. But actually they’re not very good at it, as Tim Harford, the FT’s undercover economist, explains. This is relevant how? Well, we know broadly that we cannot predict the future in any absolute terms. Some people did warn the Celtic Tiger was going to come to a nasty end, but most did not, or …

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