South Antrim Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

antrim castle gardens, hedge, pond

Yet again we see the pattern, familiar in so many constituencies, of the dramatic but temporary effects of Westminster tactical voting. Unusually, as can be seen in the main party chart below, both the DUP and the UUP benefit from this, and it is possibly one of the factors which led the UUP to run a second candidate for the Assembly. Alliance may also have derived some benefit from tactical voting, although it is obvious it lost the battle with …

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#SluggerReport: … and #AE17 South Antrim and North Belfast

Two items this morning, before the profiles. One was largely a reprise of yesterday’s story on the odd position the SF Health Minister now finds herself in, and then the odd news that the Attorney General is considering suing the Dept of the Economy for not (in the first place) bringing the RHI to the Executive table back in 2012, making it, he argues, unlawful. We really are moving through the looking glass here. So, South Antrim: If the DUP is …

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Slugger reader predictions – latest

We’ve had 49 replies to our Prediction Competition so far*. Averaging the results, we’re collectively predicting a turnout of 61.8%, and the votes cast divide up as follows (rounded up to one decimal place): SF: 25.6% DUP: 23.5% UCUNF: 17.9% SDLP: 16.2% Alliance: 5.2% TUV: 7.3% Others: 4.2% What does this tell us? It isn’t polling evidence, and there’s no weighting (bookies have the benefit of knowing a bit about strength of sentiment because it’s hard-earned cash backing predictions). But …

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