Theresa May is risking the future of the British Union if she fails to recognise that Westminster is no longer “in control”

Scottish nationalism is on the defensive for the first time in over a decade. On the other hand, English nationalism could give it second wind if it thinks it can a score an easy victory without acknowledging its enduring power.  At this juncture, it’s  true that one  early outcome of the Brexit confusion leaning towards a hard Brexit is that Nicola Sturgeon’s calculations have become more complicated. On the eve of the SNP annual conference former Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill …

Read more…

Why is Irish nationalism neutral on Scottish independence?

Martin Mansergh is a splendid relic of an old Anglo-Irish tradition, a Tipperary landlord, one of a very rare breed of Fianna Fail intellectuals, an adviser on the North to successive Fianna Fail Taoisigh, a minster who never quite fulfilled his promise possibly due to his background, a historian and son of Nicholas, one of the most eminent historians of the Commonwealth and Ireland.  In the Irish Times he seeks to sooth nerves being ruffled in the department of Foreign …

Read more…

Where the big arguments for devolution are heading

This post most of which I mainly wrote for an academic blog gives anyone interested a heads up on a more sophisticated theatre of devolution – Scotland –  assuming it votes No in the referendum. A couple of points to start with. First, taxation is the big theme. How much of its own revenue should a devolved Parliament raise? The Westminster parties are taking their Scottish affiliates at their word and all are promising greater taxation powers, with a corresponding …

Read more…

The Scottish independence debate goes colourful…

        The Herald on Sunday is the first Scottish newspaper to come out clearly in favour of independence. The front page designed by the artist Alasdair Gray makes quite a splash and the editorial arguments are balanced and reasonable. (The case for independence) seems to us to be a more exciting, imaginative and inspiring proposition than the alternative proposed by the No campaign. That it has been remorselessly negative need not detain us here. Its leaders have told …

Read more…

Damning comparison between Dev’s Ireland and Salmond’s Scottish Free State

Kevin Toolis, a Scot of born of Irish parents who wrote “Rebel Hearts”, one of the best books on the IRA on the ground, returns to a previous theme and makes this devastating comparison between an independent Scotland in prospect and post 1916 Ireland in the FT(£). We do have one good historical model of what it is like to carve out a nationalist state from within the political union of the UK but it is not one the SNP is …

Read more…

Scotland Essays: The pro-Union cause has four months to unite, learn identity politics and make a new devolution pact now!

The difference between before and after the Scottish referendum is as fundamental and unknowable as the black hole between life and death. Yet the fate of the Union may depend on what people believe now about what may happen then, in that currently unknowable state.  With the polls narrowing near the point of cross over, London- based   politicians and commentators are at last stirring themselves, the Conservative commentator and ex-MP Matthew Parris in the Times (£) being the latest in assuming a torrid fall-out from …

Read more…

“Poll: Scotland on the brink of independence” Time to panic?

For Scotland on Sunday to strike such a headline shows it’s time to panic says the Speccie. “Mr Darling and his allies in Better Together have to wake up to the fact that they have managed to blow a 20-point lead in a few months and the gap between the two sides looks like it is now within the margin of error for polling companies. Not only does the Yes camp have the momentum, it has the foot soldiers on …

Read more…

More evidence that the Westminster village is waking up to the threat of Scottish independence

John McTernan is among the shrewdest of political strategists. As quoted by David McCann, he offers  “don’t panic” advice to fellow strategists. What’s missing here are reasons for Scots to vote No. The McTernan view isn’t cutting  it with leading commentators on the centre left and right. Martin Kettle in the Guardian The psychological impact in England, Wales and Northern Ireland of Scotland’s rejection of the union, meanwhile, could be very unpredictable, and possibly nastily so. I do not want any of these …

Read more…

It takes the threat to Cameron’s survival to wake Westminster up to the threat of Scottish independence

Signs are emerging that the Westminster village, which usually treats north of Hampstead Heath as terra incognita, is at last waking up to the  real threat of Scottish independence.  The contrast couldn’t be starker between the obsession of the English right wing with a phantom referendum over Europe and the real one in Scotland that is almost upon us. The Times (£) reports pressure on David Cameron to ban Scottish candidates from the 2015 General election if Scotland votes Yes in …

Read more…

The Scottish referendum. The British identity that dare not speak its name

  The best article I’ve seen about the dearth of a cultural identity debate in Scotland by Alex Linklater, son of the great Magnus. Could Scots learn a thing or two from the Irish? Or maybe not?  You’d have thought the Scottish cultural air would be thrumming with an accrued history of intellectual fighting and flyting over who we are, dating back to the unions of crowns and parliaments, through the Enlightenment and into all the scientific and artistic legacies …

Read more…

Talking of shifts of opinion, what’s happening in Scotland?

Even after several visits to Scotland to talk to political elites I confess I never quite twigged what the core appeal of Scottish independence actually was.  Now from reports like this  by Severin Carrell, I’m beginning  to get it. The Yes campaign would say all that wouldn’t they,  but all the same.. Margie Maxwell is no Scottish nationalist. But she is Glaswegian, and intensely loyal with it. It never occurred to her she would vote for independence. But then the threats …

Read more…

The Scottish referendum campaign: personal relations are affected as the arguments become keener

Both sides of the independence referendum campaign are busy spinning Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s warning to Alex Salmond  that “some ceding of national  sovereignty” would be necessary as the price of independent Scotland’s desire  to keep the pound. The Nats are treating it with all  the appearance of calm acceptance;  the No campaign, championed  here by former Scotsman editor Iain Martin, that Carney has spiked Salmond’s guns. The Nats’ case has rested forever on the allegation that the Westminster parliament …

Read more…

Scottish unionism is finding an idealistic voice. There are lessons for their “Ulster” cousins

This comment piece in the Guardian by  Chris Deerin, a former Daily Telegraph journalist who has moved back home to Scotland is just about the first I’ve come across that the celebrates  historic Britishness as an argument against separation. Amazing when you think about it that we’ve had to wait all this time.  I doubt if Ireland in any form entered his mind.  Even for committed unionists (small or large “u”), Northern Ireland doesn’t smoothly fit into the same celebration …

Read more…

Negative pro-Union campaign causes Tory jitters about Scottish independence

Have you noticed that here in in the news desert of Christmas to New Year which relies so much on looking back and looking ahead, Northern Ireland and Scotland barely rate a mention compared to a flooded village in Kent?  Until now perhaps in the case of   Scotland, although you have to search for the odd  largely bewildering filler on the Haaas talks about “flags, parades and dealing with the past.” As so often, Iain McWhirter in the Herald spotted …

Read more…

Bold alternative urgently needed to Scottish independence

In Scotland the Better Together campaign has deservedly come in for some stick. The pro-Union cause has so far failed to agree on devo-more, the alternative to independence many politically aware Scots seem to want. (Incidentally if it ever comes to an NI referendum, their website is not the model to follow: remarkably for a Save the Union umbrella organisation it’s trite and one dimensional. They key critique is made by my friend Alan Trench whose Devolution Matters blog is the …

Read more…

Next steps towards a Scottish referendum

Make of the Sunday Telegraph ICM poll what you will.  43% of English voters approve of Scottish independence at  this particular moment, but only ( only!) 40% of Scots. Of the three potential questions 26% of Scots voters prefer independence, 26% more tax and spending powers and 37% the status quo. How did we get to this point? Outsiders may well be rubbing their eyes in disbelief. In a  neat synthesis of apparently irreconcilable ambitions, veteran Scots commentator on Europe and …

Read more…