Scotland – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

Alex Salmond accused of sexual assaults on 10 women…

Brian O'Neill on November 21, 2019, 1:07 pm

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From the BBC report: Alex Salmond has appeared in court charged with carrying out a series of sexual offences against 10 women while serving as Scotland’s first minister. Mr Salmond faced a total of 14 charges at the High Court in Edinburgh. He denies all the allegations, which include one attempted rape, one intent to rape, 10 sexual assaults and two indecent assaults. The offences are alleged to have happened between June 2008 and November 2014. Yikes, that will be …

Social media transparency data is giving real time insight on party strategy at #GE2019

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on November 9, 2019, 10:12 pm

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The upcoming general election is the first general election in the UK where social media companies are publishing transparency data, showing which political advertisements are being displayed on the platforms, who is paying for them, and the amounts being spent. Facebook is, by far, the largest platform for social media political advertisements in the UK. In the first full week of the campaign to the 4th of November, there was £175k of spending on campaign related advertisements on the platform, …

Considering the future of Northern Ireland

Paul Gosling on October 21, 2019, 7:01 am

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A panel considered how to engage in a friendly and unthreatening conversation about the future constitutional arrangements for Northern Ireland. This was held as part of a concluding reflection on the Holywell Trust’s series of 35 Forward Together podcast interviews. The panel comprised author Julieann Campbell, the commentator Denis Bradley (who was co-chair of the Consultative Group on the Past and former deputy chair of the Northern Ireland Policing Board) and Maureen Hetherington of the Junction, plus myself as the …

If Scotland eventually goes Brexit may have given it a hefty shove out the door

Mick Fealty on September 18, 2019, 2:06 pm

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I’ve always left the speculation as to what happens to Scotland after Brexit to others. Mostly because it will be dictated by what Brexit eventually looks like (if it happens at all). But this is interesting from the level headed Chris Deerin the New Statesman’s Scotland editor: …in the 2016 referendum, 62 per cent of Scots voted to remain, and almost no politician of any standing campaigned to leave. The narrow UK vote for Brexit, dictated by a much larger …

The Conservatives are failing to make headway in the Brexit supporting North and Midlands

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on September 13, 2019, 9:52 pm

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At the next general election, the Conservatives’ hopes of regaining the overall majority in the House of Commons will rest on winning a substantial number of seats from Labour in Brexit supporting areas in the North and Midlands of England. This is especially true given that they can expect to lose seats in Remain voting areas in London, the South East and Scotland. The map above compares the results of the 2016 EU referendum on a constituency basis (with seats …

Is Brexit A Rerun of the 1930s?

Gerry Lynch on August 30, 2019, 10:28 am

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We’re living through a rerun of the 1930s. It must be so, because everyone on my social media timeline tells me so. It seems to be taken as a given that Britain, like all Western societies, is a seething pit of racist, authoritarian, sentiment, itching for an undemocratic strongman to overthrow democracy and civil liberties. So, on the subject of Brexit, the Left and the Right, Leavers and Remainers, all fear the Tommy Robinsons and the Wall of Gammon that turns up at …

A bridge across the Irish Sea is a ridiculous idea, but the ferries between Northern Ireland and Scotland are the most expensive in the UK

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on August 18, 2019, 11:20 pm

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When Prime Minister, First Lord of the Treasury, Minister for the Civil Service, Minster for the Union and Novelty Infrastructure Tsar Boris Johnson visited Belfast last month for a Conservative Party leadership hustings, he re-iterated his previous support for a bridge between Northern Ireland and Scotland. It was “the kind of project that should be pursued by a dynamic Northern Ireland government”, as he optimistically phrased it. It is worth re-iterating just how stupid this idea would be. Such a …

What would happen at GE2019 if it is more like the 2019 European election than the last general election?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on August 15, 2019, 12:33 am

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Previously, I looked at what might happen at a future general election using the 2017 general election results as a base and a YouGov poll to redistribute votes to see how a new general election might pan out. This poll gave the Tories a 9 point lead over Labour in second place, and accordingly in such a scenario the Tories would win a majority despite a historically low vote share, albeit with a smaller majority if the Lib Dems, Greens …

The Unite to Remain alliance will have a mountain to climb to prevent a Conservative victory at the next general election

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on August 11, 2019, 12:57 pm

| Readers 11032

After several months where the Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives have been locked in essentially a four-way tie in the opinion polls for the next British general election, the election of Boris Johnson as Conservative party leader and prime minister has led to the Tories having a consistent lead over their rivals. The Tories have a lead of around 10 percentage points over Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who remain essentially tied on around 21%. The …

Expand ‘community planning’ and focus on wellbeing, urges McGinley

Paul Gosling on July 29, 2019, 7:01 am

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Community planning provides a model that builds on the tradition of the “very strong community spirit that prevailed in Northern Ireland” during the Troubles, argues Aideen McGinley in the latest Forward Trust podcast. McGinley is a trustee of Carnegie UK, co-chair of its embedding wellbeing project in Northern Ireland and a former senior civil servant. Aideen stresses that we need to be positive rather than fearful as we look to the future. “The bottom line is that people do not …

‘Brexit means that Northern Ireland’s constitutional future has become an issue for Europe’, says Denis Bradley

Paul Gosling on July 19, 2019, 7:01 am

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Denis Bradley was keen to move on in the latest Forward Together podcast interview to discuss the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. “Well that’s the one that intrigues me because I don’t know the answer!,” he says. “First of all I think something very important happened within the last couple of weeks and has not received attention. And that is that the Europeans have said if there a no deal situation we will still have to deal with the Northern …

UN Report: The Full Picture of Poverty in the UK is Obvious to Anyone who Opens their Eyes

Luke Butterly on July 6, 2019, 9:01 am

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“[T]he full picture of poverty in the United Kingdom, much of it the direct result of government policies… is obvious to anyone who opens their eyes. There has been a shocking increase in the number of food banks and major increases in homelessness and rough sleeping; a growing number of homeless families…” – Philip Alston, the UN special rapporteur on poverty in the UK (22 May 2019) “I reject the idea that there are vast numbers of people facing dire …

‘Social integration begins with integrated education and integrated housing’

Paul Gosling on June 28, 2019, 7:00 am

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For Northern Ireland to become more integrated, there has to be a greater focus on integrated schools and integrated housing, argues the chief executive of the Integrated Education Fund, Tina Merron. She was interviewed for the latest Forward Together podcast. “I think the majority of people in Northern Ireland want a shared future and a united community,” says Tina. “We need to give civil society more of a say. We need to encourage people to speak up and especially young …

Breaking the Union: Brexit, Boris and the Backstop

Chris McKee on June 22, 2019, 6:30 pm

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Analysed too closely, the Tory leadership race and its implications becomes more surreal by the day. Understanding its rules, relating to this, is futile: we can only observe and remark, our noses pressed with disbelief against a window of a strange and distant court that will soon decide our immediate fate. At this crucial point, we can all agree whatever is coming will mean something for us. The only questions are what, how and when. The who will likely be Boris Johnson, less probably Jeremy Hunt. Both Eton …

General election seat forecasts are no longer useful

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 2, 2019, 9:41 pm

| Readers 3913

For much of the last century, general elections in Great Britain have been largely predictable affairs. Aside from the odd Liberal, SNP and Plaid Cymru MP returned here and there, Westminster elections were a battle between Labour and the Conservatives. The relationship between the opinion polls and election results was straightforward; most constituencies were either safe Labour or Tory seats, and it was well established that a few points gained or lost in the opinion polls could predict the winner …

Islay: NI’s ‘Hidden’ Whisky Island Neighbour

CM Johnston on May 31, 2019, 7:00 pm

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Longread What if someone told you we have a relatively untalked-of, world-renowned island destination, full of stunning views, good food and A LOT of even better drinks, a stone’s throw from NI’s shores? For our recent honeymoon, myself and the newly installed Mrs Johnston took to the globally celebrated, whisky-producing island of Islay. And if your first question is ‘where?’, you’re in for a shock. That’s because it’s just one hour from Ballycastle. One hour. Why have I called it …

The Brexit Party look set to dominate at the European Elections in Great Britain as the Conservatives collapse

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 20, 2019, 2:18 am

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The Conservatives are on the verge of being virtually wiped out at this Thursday’s European election, whilst the Brexit Party look set to improve on the 24 seats that Ukip won at the 2014 poll. Using the data from this YouGov poll and analysis on the number of seats won by the vote received in the 2014 election, I estimated the probability of each party winning each seat in each European constituency. The Brexit Party would be, by far, the …

UK Parliament Declares Environment and Climate Emergency

Claire Mitchell on May 1, 2019, 7:18 pm

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The House of Commons has tonight declared an “environment and climate emergency.” The first national parliament in the world to do so. This comes in the wake of mass civil action by Extinction Rebellion, school strikes for climate, and local declarations of climate emergency all over the world. The UK Labour Party, which proposed the motion, asked MPs to “act with commensurate urgency.” Something which the Green Party have been urging for a very long time. In the last few …

Good remembering

Andy Boal on April 20, 2019, 7:43 pm

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Lyra McKee wanted me to come out with her in the car sometime to help build her confidence. We’d been talking about it for ages, especially after she encountered road rage trying to join the M2 from the Yorkgate side of the York Street junction, which is not for the faint-hearted. I’m fairly sure I’m not the exemplar of good driving which she should have been following. One of the most important things in grieving is good remembering. When you …

A new British centrist party would likely benefit the Tories, just like the last time

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 5, 2019, 10:42 pm

| Readers 1038

An unpopular Conservative government, a left-wing Labour leader with poor favourability ratings, and a breakaway faction of centrist Labour MPs joined by a Conservative defection a short while afterwards. The parallels between the formation of the Independent Group of MPs in February 2019, and that of the Social Democratic Party in 1981, are clearly apparent. Could a new centrist force make a breakthrough in a Westminster general election, as the alliance between the Liberals and the SDP famously failed to …