Last Thursday changed everything and nothing for the DUP. Gone is the petition of concern. Gone too is the large buffer of seats with Sinn Fein. What hasn’t change is the outcome. They still have the First Minister’s position and with the UUP’s downsizing are more dominant in unionism. On the other hand, in the course of less than a year, Mrs Foster has overturned recent patterns of nationalist and unionist turnout in a way that has cost her both in seats and …
Sinn Fein has delivered an object lesson in how to do disruptive politics. A classic example of Tzu Sun’s famous aphorism that: “If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest.” No one, outside the party, expected or was prepared for what followed. There were two aspects to the success of its campaign. One was seizing the prime opportunity out of the DUP’s …
So how did the SDLP do? They had few opportunities to make themselves heard through the gales of outrage which sustained an often extremely petty two party media scrap throughout the campaign. And they had to fight it on a tiny campaign budget. At best, I thought they could win eleven seats, or as few as nine. Whilst they did lose two sitting MLAs (West Belfast and FST) both had an uptick in vote share of 1.3%, and they picked up …
“When the history of this election written the first word is going to be ‘transfers’…” said Mark Carruthers of Mike Nesbitt’s only real contribution to a tumultuous campaign. The real problem the UUs had was its lack of resonant messages on the government record. However, once said, transferring cannot be unsaid. It’s the clear logic of anyone going into government to power share. And it wasn’t universally unpopular. The party increased its vote like almost everyone else. But by nothing like enough. …
A few years ago, I recall Belfast based lobbyist Brendan Mulgrew describing Naomi Long as “a full colour politician in a black and white world”. And that was a few years before she took on the top job on from David Ford. Just over a year into the job, and Northern Ireland’s liberal party have their best result since 1987. That’s a very long way from the nadir of 2003, when it was lucky to retain its six seats on …
Some will have noticed a pause in these rough post-election profiles of the main and mid-sized parties. The truth is I was struggling with what I could usefully say about the UUP. It wasn’t a great election for them, but they at least pulled back to 16 (from 13). On reflection in terms of content or the nature of their ongoing beef with the DUP it’s hard to see exactly what their campaign was for. Now Phillip Smith is a more …
I’m not sure I’ve read a convincing account of why the DUP won back most of their high tide mandate so convincingly and with such ease. One of the more obvious reasons for that is that the DUP is probably the party most members of the media love to hate most. It’s hard for many of us to forget the transgressions of the Paisley years. But the man who put in the footings of this more modern (and more female) …
TIDE GOES OUT on Labour when some former friends discount it as being any part of the wider progressive force. “Backs to the wall” has been a feature of its subsistence lifestyle since the beginning of the state. But how do they now begin to re-insinuate themselves into the public conversations of the future?
RISING SLOW: A handy result owing much to the party’s well crafted and honed form of “stay low and keep moving” guerilla politics. But against expectations and in the wider picture, pretty unremarkable. In upcoming negotiations, Sinn Fein will not be allowed to sit comfortably on the sidelines.
RISING TIDE: A quick election would only result in small changes up or down, so further ‘executions’ on the electoral field must wait. So Fianna Fail will seek a realignment via engagement and by shifting the narrative frame to the question of who can and cannot deliver change and reform.
SPRING OR AUTUMN: The recovery is real which makes government office well worth hanging on to for as long as possible as far as the party is concerned. But it remains to be seen whether this equinoctial moment marks a spring or autumn for Fine Gael’s longer term ambitions.
