Theresa May’s fightback to support the Union through Brexit is only work in progress. The Irish are creating a benign vision of a United Ireland. Do the British want to match it?

The imminence of triggering Article 50 has at last woken up the British government to the reality of the threat to the Union. In a reported forthcoming tour of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to explain a negotiating  position that has seemed to ignore them,  propping up support for her “beloved Union” has become  Theresa May’s priority. Her first line of defence  will be  to  convince the massed ranks of critics that a “hard Brexit” is a misnomer which  does …

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In a second battle of the turnouts, who thinks united unionism would win and a settlement would follow?

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“No surrender” from Arlene, as she calls for a united unionist party on the eve of negotiations

Arlene’s call for a single unionist party in the Belfast Telegraph is a clear sign she’s going make fight of it.    Coming on the eve of first stage negotiations, it suggests a different  focus – defiance.  The move is out of kilter with the one action that would false foot Sinn Fein or get them back in government – standing aside as first minister even temporarily. Ideally, I would like to see a renewed attempt to create unionist unity where …

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Skids under Arlene?

Will she be gone by tonight? Temporarily or permanently? No one better  than historian Eamonn Phoenix to put it into context. The resulting loss of a Unionist majority at Stormont for the first time has shocked Unionism to its core. The political and, especially, the psychological implications of this as the centenary of Partition approaches in 2021, should not be underestimated. Is there any more to say except wait on events? And perhaps spare a thought for Mike Nesbitt. Did he …

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All very exciting, Sandra and Sean. But in the cold light of day the election changed nothing except dreams and nightmares

Now that  the election is  over, all the  politicians have turned into commentators   tweeting all over the place, giving pious little lectures about what the other guy should do now. Not a word about what they themselves should do to reach agreement.  In the cold light of day the undoubted Sinn Fein victory makes neither them nor the DUP more amenable to compromise: rather the reverse. The mutual veto is rock solid. The centre ground was rescued from oblivion at …

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Despite going to the polls today, the Northern Ireland voters will have no say in the outcome. The two governments’ hands- off approach to Stormont will have to change

People  going to the polls today are being sold badly short. They do not  know whether they are electing members to an Assembly that will function again. Northern Ireland is facing not an existential crisis but a failure of politicians to work a workable system consistently. The trouble is that no effective means of calling them to account has yet been developed.  Most people, the public and politicians alike don’t seem to realise how appalling this looks to outsiders and …

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Scotland and Northern Ireland move centre stage, says Downing St. ” Save the Union” is the mission

Well what do you know? At the beginning of a very busy news week, the Times leads with a real revelation from right under their noses. After months of  patting the wee Celts on the head with bland assurances that Brexit will be fine all round, “sources “ now say that  “concerns about Scotland and Northern Ireland were discussed at last week’s cabinet.. and the impact of Brexit on the UKs devolution settlement is the government’s greatest concern about the exit …

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Sinn Féin’s red lines? : “So you had the Irish language act, there was a thing called the bill of rights and there was another issues.”

Launching the Sinn Féin manifesto for the Northern Ireland Assembly election a couple of weeks ago, the party’s appointed ‘leader in the North’, Michelle O’Neill, declared that “You’d be very aware that I won’t be drawing any red line issues…” Since then she has allowed the impression to be created that the one ‘red line’ the party does have is the nomination of the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, as First, or deputy First, Minister before Judge Coughlin’s inquiry into the RHI scheme …

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“The potential to be the most important election in NI’s history?” A neck and neck result could be just what we need

“The potential to be the most important election in Northern Ireland’s history,” claims the peripatetic columnist Alex Kane, writing this time in the Newsletter today.  Alex is reflecting unionist collywobbles at the prospect of DUP/SF neck and neck. It raises the existential fear of the “known unknown” of unionist nemesis which is paradoxically more nerve wracking for many of them than  waiting impatiently for the conclusive  end of their long period as a minority is for nationalists.

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“is Gerry the Genius sure he has thought all this through?”

In today’s Irish News, Newton Emerson asks the impertinent question… Remarks by Mike Nesbitt about cross-community voting distracted from what should have been the major story of the week. Northern Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill has said her party will not return to the executive with Arlene Foster as first or deputy first minister until the DUP leader has been cleared by the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) inquiry. O’Neill added this was a red line issue – something Sinn Féin …

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Mike Nesbitt is pitching to his voters to use their judgement, not to his candidates. It makes perfect sense

Most commentators have stated the obvious. Whistling through their teeth as they praise him for being brave in classic Yes Minister mode – .i.e. suicidal – the best that can be said for him  is that he should have looked forward to cooperating with the SDLP after the election and left it at that. But that was to miss the point. What Mike Nesbitt did was break a taboo by  daring to propose voting outside the big tent. If not …

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Obsessing about vote management is inevitable but shouldn’t distract us from what happens afterwards

Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt has predictably taken a hammering over his personal choice to vote SDLP next. The Newsletter has helpfully quoted 8 UUP candidates who think otherwise. They can hardly be blamed. Most of them  rely on DUP transfers to  get elected and aren’t expecting SDLP transfers anytime soon. They mortally fear a DUP plump that leaves them high and dry and in some cases, Sinn Fein cosy and warm and elected  instead. So why did Mike do …

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Arlene’s partial withdrawal will not close the crocodile’s jaws. Remember what happened after a previous DUP leader said “never?”

I would contextualise David McCann’s well- balanced report of Arlene Foster’s partial climbdown a little differently.  How will she now follow through?  Gerry Adams is bursting to  know. He or Michelle O’Neill  and will challenge her shortly. All the other parties will join in the chorus. When columnist Eilis O’Hanlon, a keen debunker of  Sinn Fein positions  joins the club of critics and accuses Arlene Foster of lack of commitment  to “the long term interests of unionism” we know the …

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Straight comparisons with Wales are barmy. An NI Language Act under Assembly control would be nothing like

Perhaps Arlene Foster deserves a crumb of sympathy when Nelson McCausland makes claims like this about the cost of Sinn Fein’s version of an Irish Language Act. So, we are talking about an annual cost that can be estimated at around £100m a year. That is £2bn over the next 20 years. Shades of RHI Aaaghh!! But it’s nonsense to think that any such Language Act here would be as extensive or as expensive as the Welsh provision. The comparison …

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“I don’t have to be a Sinn Féin republican.”

Despite the efforts of the former Sinn Féin MLA for North Antrim, Daithí McKay to reinvent himself [move along now… – Ed], some of his supporters appear not to be prepared to let it lie. Having resigned from the party over its handling of the Jamie Bryson coaching scandal, and its anointing of Daithí McKay’s successor, former Sinn Féin councillor Monica Digney is standing in the Northern Ireland Assembly election in North Antrim as an independent candidate. As Mick noted in August last year One of the 18 to resign, …

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The DUP and Sinn Fein are neck and neck as Arlene Foster plummets – Bel Tel poll

LucidTalk  party ratings in the Belfast Telegraph  here and ratings for Arlene Foster and other  party leaders compared over time  here.  They show a continuing downward trend for the DUP leader in less than two months , from 49% before December to 21% now . When only unionists are included into the results Jim Allister comes out on top with Arlene Foster just half a percentage point above Michelle O’Neill who was bottom on 28.9%. LucidTalk concludes that the DUP will …

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The splits over Brexit in the election campaign distract from bigger realities. As usual

So no news in the fact  that  the DUP and Sinn Fein remain at odds over Brexit. Sinn Fein’s new Northern leader Michelle O’Neill rejects Theresa May’s assurances on an open  *frictionless?”  border. Mrs O’Neill said: “What we are very sure of is the implications of a hard Brexit are going to mean a hard border – a soft border is a nonsense. Nigel Dodds dismisses this as hot air, adding a twist by reminding the UK government that  moving …

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The DUP have a point about an Irish Language Act but it’s smaller than they think – and small minded too

The journal.ie have done a useful bit of fact checking over contradictory claims that the St Andrew’s Agreement committed the DUP to “ an Irish Language Act.”  Their verdict: VERDICT The DUP’s claim that they never agreed to establish an Irish Language Act as part of St Andrews Agreement is true, as the legislation refers to the British government’s commitment to an Irish Language Act, not the DUP’s. Although they signed up to the St Andrews Agreement, this includes a …

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The road to influencing the Brexit future isn’t closed. But is Adams now detaching Brexit from the future of the Assembly?

Why are staunch defenders of the  GFA  not rejoicing since the UK Supreme Court found that  nothing about Northern Ireland’s removal from Europe breaches any law, treaty or part of the constitution and there will now be a UK parliament vote on article 50?  Newton Emerson puts the question in the Irish Times with his tongue firmly in his cheek. Any failure to accept the finality of the judgements against them not only perpetuates a false impression of damage to the peace …

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“if Sinn Fein fails to increase its vote and share of Assembly seats under Michelle O’Neill’s leadership…”

With a stagnating vote evident in the last NI Assembly election – just 8 months ago – and a reduced number of seats available this time out, in the Belfast Telegraph Anthony McIntyre highlights a potential problem for Sinn Féin in their election gamble. There is nothing complicated about the DUP pitch: despite the democratic veneer, the appointment of a non-martial politician to lead Sinn Fein in the north, the caudillo and his camarilla are still pulling the strings. A clear declaration …

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