Whatever #Brexit means for Britain, Northern Ireland must take its opportunities and threats seriously…

So Guy Verhofstadt tells us that the EU is not out to punish the UK (or ‘Britain’ if you still think we’re all the same). We, if we are paying attention to Article 8 of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU cannot had out what the British Foreign Minister so crassly refers to as a punishment beating:  The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the …

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Ireland must seek EU permission to make a draft bilateral deal with Britain

Dublin reaction to Theresa May’s big Brexit speech is understandably cautious verging on the sceptical.   Is more substantial content  to be expected when Theresa meets Enda in Dublin next week,  no doubt to discuss  her hopes that an open-ish border can be achieved  through  “frictionless “ trading monitored digitally  and immigration rules enforced mainly through national insurance and taxation rather than entry points? Probably not,  even though the promptness of the visit after the speech is welcome and she has …

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Theresa May’s aim of free trade with the EU outside the single market is the way to avoid a hard border. The Irish should start lobbying their EU partners now.

We will put our precious Union at the heart of what we do.. We will strengthen our relationship between the four nations of the UK..   I hope for the same spirit of unity, especially in Northern Ireland and that the parties will establish a new relationship as soon as possible..  The devolved administrations will be fully engaged (in the Brexit process). That is why we have set up a joint ministerial committee.. We have received papers from Scotland and …

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Solutions are negotiable, if there’s the political will

There’s something stereotypically Irish about a battle between two parties who are not competing for the same votes, were in one sense on the same side  – i.e. the same government – and will end up more or less where we are after the Assembly election. Incisive though it is, Mick’s analysis defers the subject of finding  a way through the standoff for another time. In my own pitch to CNN, I noted the switch in morale between the DUP …

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Is greater Sinn Fein militancy the right answer to wider voter disillusionment?

Chris Donnelly’s analysis of Sinn Fein’s position in the Irish News is welcome as an all- too rare piece of criticism from an independent-minded sympathiser. The DUP would do well to emulate it. But self- criticism has a long way to go. The hope must be that behind the scenes amid the bluster of an election campaign, it will continue and produce realistic positions in the end. Chris does not go far as to say that the party has reached …

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How will Ireland square the circle of close relations with Brexit Britain and continuing loyalty to the EU?

An Irish government official said to me a few weeks ago: “ we’re with the other guys now.” That arresting comment  meant that Ireland was making a necessary shift further away from Britain and towards the continuing relationship with the EU. A binary choice  is in prospect, goes the argument, depending on the Brexit outcomes. There was a certain amount of whistling bravado in the remark  – perhaps belied  by the Irish government’s intense efforts with its continuing EU partners …

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“…putting manners on the DUP means a huge jump towards voluntary coalition”

Brilliant as ever from Newton Emerson, on the likely terms of any upcoming ambitious negotiations (£): It is easy enough to see how Stormont should be tweaked to put unionists and republicans on a more solidly equal footing. The dreaded ‘deputy’ should be dropped from the title of deputy first minister, as Sinn Féin has long proposed. Petitions of concerns should be abolished (if the next election outcome does not make them redundant), committees should be opposition led – this …

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EU Special Status, and ignoring the Northern Ireland Assembly…

As Mick noted this morning, Micheal Martin has joined the list of party leaders calling on the Irish and British Governments to negotiate for EU special status for Northern Ireland post-Brexit. At the recent All-Island Civic Dialogue on Brexit, there was the Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said in his speech that the Government needed to uphold the wishes of the Northern Ireland people and secure a special status for the region. “The overriding and principle …

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There is no threat to the Union. Irish bickering north and south over the reality of Brexit has to be replaced with practical cooperation, fast.

Newton’s latest observations on the “curmudgeonly” Arlene can be counterpointed with an incredibly wise article in the Indo by Brendan Keenan, Belfast born and bred but long anchored in Dublin and with a strong sense of reality for the interests of both. Arlene’s dour comments  can be contrasted  unfavourably  with the regal visionary style of Nicola Sturgeon. But Arlene doesn’t have the field of  government to herself. In practice they are both pragmatic and when it suits them, even cooperative …

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After a quiet day in Dublin, drama in the English High Court. But don’t get too excited…

It would be as well not to get over excited about this morning’s rejection in the English High Court of the UK government’s case that it can trigger Article 50 without the consent of Parliament.  The show isn’t over yet; the denouement was always likely  to be played out at the top. The government will appeal to the Supreme Court which is also expected to deal with the equivalent Northern Ireland appeal at the same time, after the Belfast High Court …

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The complexities of Brexit could overwhelm the British political system. For all Ireland, a bigger role needed for the GFA structures

.As the “all island ” civic forum meets in Dublin bereft of unionists, a high powered think tank The UK in a changing Europe warns: “Brexit has the potential to test the UK’s constitutional settlement, legal framework, political process and bureaucratic capacities to their limits – and possibly beyond.. And they suggest the repatriation of decision-making in key policy areas including agriculture, the environment and higher education to Britain from Brussels could affect the balance of power between Westminster and the …

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Arlene defends Brexit, trusts Theresa and appears to see no need for solidarity with the Republic.

First Minister Arlene Foster has burst into print in the Guardian to explain how Leave is compatible with Northern Ireland’s interests. If nothing else, it marks her out as the first person of any prominence to do so. If Martin McGuinness and Colum Eastwood are alarmist, she is almost complacent and takes a lot for granted. Yet read carefully  she is still asking for special treatment for Northern Ireland and assumes she’ll get it.  Her message is “stick with Theresa …

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Brexit heads the long list of opportunities for the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP to score together.

I always had a soft spot for the young SDLP. They were of an age, they were more fun to be with – and drink with – barring a few very honourable exceptions on the unionist side. And they didn’t go about being so bloody angry the whole time. They had leadership qualities, emotional intelligence and they had a life through all the pressures. They deserved better results. As their power disintegrated and their party split, Ulster Unionists tended to be more defensive  but there were many you could  do business with.

For those of us with long memories, the revival of a formal alliance between the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP (if that is what finally transpires), gives grounds for cautious optimism.   The idea has been as obvious in theory as it has been elusive in practice ever since power sharing was first seriously mooted in 1972. When they came together, as in 1973 and 1998-2002, they were outflanked by the polarising effect of violence or the threat of violence.

The UUs and the SDLP finally lost their leading role and much of their raison d’être because of Tony Blair’s frank admission that “you don’t have guns”. This was his explanation for elevating  IRA disarmament over the survival of the early Assembly led by the two “constitutional ” parties.  The idea that they should have jointly called for the alternative of  Sinn Fein’s suspension from the Assembly until the IRA disarmed,

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Pressure on Theresa May is mounting.. and this is only the start..

Theresa May’s little pitch over coffee at the EU summit last night seems to have backfired.  The Guardian and the Daily Telegraph although divided over a hard and a soft Brexit  are united in reporting  that she  ” created a lot of anger.” This from the bête noire. Asked how talks had gone with Mrs May last night, Jean-Claude Juncker shrugged his shoulders and spluttered “Pfff”. The European Commission president said: “We had no special event with Theresa May yesterday. “She …

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So the DUP are leaving it all up to Theresa May to sort out our Brexit deal are they?

At last!  Only two months later, a reply from Theresa May to the joint concerns of FM and DFM on the impact of Brexit. Searching for detail in the Nolan “scoop” I can only find this on the BBC website. In her letter, Mrs May says the future of the border is “an important priority for the UK as a whole.” She also says she recognises the “unique issues” raised by the Single Electricity Market and that resolving these will …

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Tánaiste: “It has always been the case that Ireland and the United Kingdom cooperate closely on jointly securing the external border of the CTA…”

A couple of recent written questions in the Dáil, on the future operation of the Common Travel Area and immigration controls, provided the Irish Government with an opportunity to address what are described as “a number of misleading media reports on these matters in recent days”. From the Dáil record [13 Oct] Brexit Issues 10. Deputy Fiona O’Loughlin asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Justice and Equality her views on media reports that the United Kingdom is seeking to shift the front line of …

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Theresa May is risking the future of the British Union if she fails to recognise that Westminster is no longer “in control”

Scottish nationalism is on the defensive for the first time in over a decade. On the other hand, English nationalism could give it second wind if it thinks it can a score an easy victory without acknowledging its enduring power.  At this juncture, it’s  true that one  early outcome of the Brexit confusion leaning towards a hard Brexit is that Nicola Sturgeon’s calculations have become more complicated. On the eve of the SNP annual conference former Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill …

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High tech can soften the prospect of a hard border, but it’s no Trojan horse.

The Guardian has posted an early lead from its Ireland correspondent Henry McDonald quoting NI Secretary James Brokenshire saying that: London and Dublin will work to strengthen Ireland’s external borders in order to combat illegal migration into the UK once it leaves the European Union. “There was now a high level of collaboration on a joint programme of work” between the two states to control immigration. We have put in place a range of measures to further combat illegal migration …

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On dealing with the past, Brokenshire should demand Executive action or withdraw the money

James Brokenshire is at least the eighth secretary of state to utter warm words about dealing with the past.   It’s almost two years since the abortive Stormont House Agreement described new structures headed by a new Historic Investigations Unit. £150 million will be made available by Westminster over the next five years to implement the full package. Brokenshire is the latest UK minister to acquaint himself of “the raw emotion, the pain etc” and to repeat the government’s pledge of …

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Ireland will have to spell out what they mean by special status for the North – assuming they know what it is.

Reactions have been predictable in Ireland to the“hard Brexit” tone of Theresa May’s brief conference speech in Sunday and her rejection of the idea of giving a Brexit veto to Scotland or Northern Ireland . The Irish government are as worried as they are ignorant of British intentions. The DUP  remain defiantly pro-Leave and opposed to all – Ireland consultation at this stage. The Dail as a whole is now gloomier about prospects for an open border. Poor Ireland, bursting with goodwill …

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