The Brexit crunch may come as soon as Christmas. The British case should be taken more seriously

Many commentators on the Brexit negotiations, including Irish ones scarred by the diktat of the 2010 bailout and understandably opposed to the whole idea, talk as if the EU Commission’s  stance is not only immutable but deserves the status of Holy Writ, while the British position is purely faction-ridden and pathetic. The contrast is too stark. There is no absolute  logic to the EU’s making an adamantine sticking point out of  of undefined  “sufficient progress” on  UK financial contributions,  citizenship …

Read more…

Bertie Ahern: “It is worth looking for a moment at what we are in danger of losing…”

Bertie Ahern, former Taoiseach and someone who has spent a political lifetime in the art of political negotiation gave this speech on Brexit to the Kennedy Summer School a few weeks back. This draft is published with the permission of both the Summer School and the author. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Brexit negotiations is unsettling, and likely to last for some time to come. Brexit has opened up for the first time since the 1990s a major …

Read more…

Taoiseach pins blame for Northern Ireland’s impasse on Sinn Fein

As noted previously, Micheal Martin’s public determination to isolate SF seems to be giving rise to those aforementioned wider consequences. From playing up to SF a few weeks back, if this exchange is anything to go by, the Taoiseach is hardening his line: .@sinnfeinireland has no respect for our Parliament. They shout people down & show total disrespect for anyone who doesn’t share their views pic.twitter.com/iWsGEvTNbn — Fine Gael (@FineGael) September 27, 2017 This section is part of a longer …

Read more…

Stop messing around and get back to work!

If I woke up tomorrow and decided I couldn’t get on with my colleagues nor did I want to strike an agreement on a direction for a project we were working on – I’d be in trouble. Worse still if I just simply decided not to turn up to my job, I’d no doubt be sacked and someone else would be found to replace me. As the talks to restore the Northern Ireland Executive seem to be stuck in a …

Read more…

Light-fingered DUP “Culture Crocs” prepare to exploit ‘new model’ Acht?

I was asked on Friday if I thought there would be a resolution to the current impasse and answered honestly with a “no idea” that brought only the inevitable derisory laughter at a public pundit declaring himself unable to take a punt. But as Patrick Murphy in the Irish News on Saturday joyfully declared: This is a difficult time for astrologers, especially those who dabble in British and Irish politics. It is not much fun for columnists either, because whatever about …

Read more…

Will Gerry Adams’ ‘significant address’ effect a return to Stormont?

Michelle O’Neill has finally wrested the microphone away from the boss. Privately she’s well considered by folks in Northern Irish civil society, but to be honest, if she doesn’t start inhabiting a leadership space soon, it will be hard for anyone outside the party to take SF’s NI participation seriously. Apparently, the party’s think in at the City North Hotel will “focus on the current talks aimed at restoring power-sharing in Northern Ireland”. Good. But then, how? A new election they know …

Read more…

Ending Brexit deadlock over financial contributions hinges on a transition deal

The Irish Times is trumpeting “ breakthrough” in the Brexit talks over guaranteeing to preserve free movement of all European Union citizens between Ireland and Britain. But the headline oversells the overall story which dwells on the absence of breakthrough. .  In truth ” free movement  for EU citizens”  was bound to be the result for the future of the Common Travel Area  although the British have been making a meal of it and should have agreed it months ago, to start …

Read more…

Is Labour’s dramatic shift on Brexit at the top of a slippery slope to remaining within the EU?

Stand by for a round of attacks by the Tories on Labour for their dramatic shift to a clearer Brexit policy of remaining within the single market and the customs union for a time “as short as possible, but as long as is necessary”.  But behind the sound and fury, look carefully too for signs of a split or   “nuances” within Conservative ranks. More than ever, Brexit will either become the clear differentiator between the two main parties or create …

Read more…

Only when they negotiate on trade will we know how the UK plans for customs and the border will fly

It’s clear already that the options easiest to negotiate with the EU in the UK position papers on customs and the Irish border are those which  cross UK red lines and point  to a soft Brexit by any other name. But this is far from the end of the story. The Institute for Government which has close links with Whitehall warns that free trade proposals  will have to emerge first  before we know how what sort of runners they really …

Read more…

Some bold solutions, several welcome “principles” on dealing with the Irish border. The British paper in full is a serious document

The British paper on the border is at last the meaty  document  long called for. It makes a several  bold and practical suggestions for a seamless border  but leaves much up in the air, laying down “ principles” for future negotiations. Many of these  go far beyond the Irish border issues to the heart of Brexit itself.  This is why the Irish  foreign minister Simon Coveney thinks he smells a rat, warning almost immediately that Ireland will not become a …

Read more…

If there is to be a hard border, it will be the EU that imposes it, say the British

No surprise then that little new has emerged in the British paper on the border. It’s right that as we shape the unprecedented model, we have some very clear principles. Top of our list is to agree upfront no physical border infrastructure – that would mean a return to the border posts of the past and is completely unacceptable to the UK.” What has become a bit clearer is a key point that the expected chorus of  critics from British …

Read more…

The UK proposals on the border likely to underwhelm, as the Ref 2 debate hots up

Theresa May has had  the temporary excuse of being on holiday to explain away the continuing churn over Brexit inside and outside the government. No more. She returns from holiday this week. Little to comfort her awaits.  Rather than a produce a rallying cry the promised publication of several major Brexit policy documents by midweek is likely  to give both sides of the debate more ammunition to throw at each other. By themselves they cannot constitute  a coherent strategy. But …

Read more…

Active north-south cooperation would be the intelligent unionist response to Sinn Fein’s vision of unity out of Brexit

There has been a delayed reaction of critical comment on the Oireacthas report on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement in the light of Brexit. The report called for special status for Northern Ireland within the EU but coupled it with a drive to work for unionist consent to a united Ireland. This would include a new New Ireland Forum of the type held in the early 1980s which recognised unionist Britishness but was repudiated by Fianna Fail and …

Read more…

British position papers on customs union and Northern Ireland imminent – Politico website exclusive

Britain is about to show its hand in Brexit negotiations in plans that reveal the U.K. wants a smooth route out of the European Union. The U.K. will seek a transitional customs agreement with the EU before moving to a new permanent relationship under plans sent to relevant members of Theresa May’s Cabinet for agreement before being published later this month, according to senior government officials. The proposal — if it is agreed politically — will be set out in an …

Read more…

A reply on Brexit to Nicholas Whyte

I don’t think I did leave out “the important dimension” of the Irish border, one of three issues identified by the EU before trade talks can begin. On this I agreed with the Brexit Secretary David Davis who asked how the border issue could  possibly be settled in advance.  A settlement on the Irish border has surely to be compatible with a wider deal and the EU I suspect will not allow an Irish tail to wag the EU dog. …

Read more…

A border down the Irish Sea is a straw man

The Times of London lead “Irish want sea border after Brexit”  is probably plugging a line from Dublin harder than it deserves, in claiming that the Irish government under  new leadership is calling for  an economic border down the Irish Sea as the only viable alternative to an unacceptable  hardening of the  land border. Sir Jeffrey immediately shot down that kite on behalf of the DUP on the Today programme, (although BBC NI’s habitually sleepy news website has yet to …

Read more…

“it is tempting to conclude that SF has no strategy…”

From yesterday’s Irish News, Patrick Murphy, once again, making direct contact with the head of the nail. While the DUP’s future role in Westminster is far from predictable, it is easy to understand. Sinn Féin’s strategy, however, is less clear. Indeed it is tempting to conclude that SF has no strategy, other than to prolong the talks and hope for a lucky break, similar to the one the DUP received in Westminster. Sinn Féin collapsed Stormont because of the RHI …

Read more…

“six months later nothing seems to have replaced that philosophy beyond aggressively taking on the DUP…”

Ahead of the likely suspension of open party political hostilities briefings to the media for the summer, the News Letter’s Sam McBride has an interesting piece in search of a Sinn Féin strategy.  [There’s a strategy?! – Ed]  Just tactics… From the News Letter Long forgotten are the days when Martin McGuinness warmly recalled how he and Ian Paisley had agreed that they could run their own affairs and didn’t need English ministers in Belfast. Sinn Fein is now warning …

Read more…

A new approach to deadlock in Northern Ireland

  A unique coincidence of events Standing back, it’s easy enough to see why the latest Assembly crisis is the longest and most intractable for over a decade. Unusually in recent times and in sharp contrast to the heady days of the Good Friday Agreement, this breakdown is set against background of momentous upheaval which typically, the local politicians rushed to exploit for their own causes.  For the DUP, Brexit revives the prospect of a physical border which in whatever …

Read more…

Resorting to law for violating impartiality won’t end political deadlock but fresh Westminster legislation now just might

It always happens, doesn’t it, that when political deadlock becomes tighter, legalistic arguments become more obsessive. It’s a hoot to claim that the once great  hero of the GFA  and now  the great scapegoat for all that’s gone wrong anywhere, anytime Tony Blair, conned the poor innocent parties to the St Andrew’s Agreement over an Irish Language Act.  Couldn’t they read? As barrack room lawyers par excellence themselves, couldn’t they recognise a hostage to fortune when they saw it? What …

Read more…