As the parties gear up for one (or two?) elections – the latest Lucid Talk poll…

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If the on-again off-again Assembly Election were held tomorrow, the results would look almost the same as they did last May, according to Lucid Talk’s new poll in the Belfast Telegraph. But it points to significant changes at the Council elections in May. Sinn Féin 31% (+2 from last election) DUP 25% (+4) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 10% (-1) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 7% (-1) Aontú 2% (+1) PBPA 1% (No change) Green 1% (-1) Before we look as the …

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Voting intentions survey – 44.1% wouldn’t vote (3:2 women:men) + the party split of those who would vote

2006 Belfast Telegraph masthead saying Today's News Today

LucidTalk’s latest survey is providing headlines for the Belfast Telegraph all week. Their voting intentions survey published in today’s paper shows the uphill struggle [Ed – or opportunity?] parties would have to motivate the electorate to positively engage in an election. [Excluding people who would not vote] Overall the figures for the five Executive parties, with the 2011 vote in brackets, are DUP 29.3% (30%), Sinn Fein 26.1% (26.9%), UUP 10.8% (13.2%), SDLP 13.8% (14.2%) and Alliance 10.2% (7.7%). Forty-five …

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BelTel Poll: UUP disappearing in the east of Northern Ireland?

So, here’s today’s poll in the BelTel: DUP 30% SF 26.4 SDLP 13.5 Alliance 11.6 UUP 11.4 Alliance, without doing very much for it, are pounding the UUP east of Bann. As one leading commentator told Slugger this morning, this would cost the UUP key seats in Belfast and North Down. In fact, what’s happening underneath the figures are that the UUP are quickly becoming a border area party, with the DUP now holding majority shares in the broader pro …

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Tory research uncovers a politically ‘orphaned’ Catholic middle class?

Liam Clarke had an analysis piece in the BelTel yesterday (I still want to say last night) in which he cited some party polling by Lucid Talk for the Conservatives. [Nationalists, you may want to look away from the screen for a while, since this is what the Tories consider their best battleground territory]. It’s worth noting that this is both more and less than your average poll. Only the Tories could afford to put in the field a survey …

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More lessons in the Belfast Telegraph poll…

The detailed results of the Belfast Telegraph poll into current Assembly voting intentions were published at the weekend www.lucidtalk.co.uk We can be sure that the parties will be poring over them. They will translate the changes in percentage support into votes, and then project that into individual Assembly constituencies, and also look for lessons for their next Westminster and European campaigns. Here’s what they will find: • The UUP appears to have lost over 14,700 voters since the last Assembly …

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