New Poll numbers make grim reading for Irish Government

The new MRBI poll numbers to be reported in tomorrow’s Irish times make for truly awful reading for the government and An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen. After the summer period when traditionally FF numbers have tended to go up with the Oireachtas not sitting and the absence of real new, this makes the drop which goes so much against the seasonal trend look even worse.

Fianna Fáil, 17 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael, 34 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 1 point); Sinn Féin, 10 per cent (up 2 points); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 12 per cent (up 2 points).

While there is some greater legitimacy in my view to question the alteration of the core numbers and the allocation of the undecideds to get the headline figures, the fact that Labour are 2% ahead of FF when it comes to the core numbers is sign of how much FF have collapsed in Dublin and urban areas.

“In Dublin Labour is in first place with 25 per cent, one point ahead of Fine Gael on 24 per cent with Fianna Fail trailing back in fourth place in the capital on 11 per cent, a point behind Sinn Fein.”

I wonder what their numbers in the commuter belt around Dublin are these days. SF can be reasonably content with their party position though the drop in satisfaction with Gerry Adams might be just the sort of nod that’s as good as wink to a blind man to move things one way or the other in the internal discussion about the medium term leadership changes the party may be contemplating.

You can get more comment on them here, but the more immediate question is – can a government with only the support of 1 in 5 voters get them to pass a referendum that at least some will see as a chance to give them a kicking? Would you buy a used treaty from them?

Core numbers Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael, 26 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 18 per cent (up 1 point); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); Independents/ others, 9 per cent (up 2 points); and undecided voters 20 per cent (up 1 point).

Dan Sullivan