Michael Hehir

Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.

Council Elections Background: Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon…

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argory, armagh, irish

This Council has 41 councillors. At the last election the UUP was the only party to win seats in all seven District Electoral Areas (DEA’s). The DUP and SF were each represented in 6, the SDLP in 4 and Alliance in 3. Despite losing 5 seats between them unionists still held a majority of five. Their vote share had eroded significantly from the previous election in 2014. The unionist tally included one Independent, Paul Berry (Cusher). There were 8 seat …

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Background to Council Elections: Ards and North Down Council…

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amusement park surrounded with tall and green trees under blue and gray skies

This Council has 40 councillors. The DUP, UUP and Alliance each had representation in all seven District Electoral Areas (DEA’s) at the last election, Greens in 3 and the SDLP in 1. Whilst still having a majority of votes, unionists recorded their biggest drop in vote share of any Council. Three Independents were elected. Two have had their votes included with the unionist share – Tom Smith (Bangor East & Donaghadee) who was elected in 2014 for the DUP and …

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Background to the 2023 Council Elections: Antrim and Newtownabbey Council…

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antrim castle gardens, hedge, pond

This Council has 40 councillors. At the last election both the DUP and UUP held seats in all seven District Electoral Areas (DEA), Alliance in 6, and the SDLP and Sinn Feín in 4. And while the total unionist vote share slipped significantly between the last two elections, unionists retained a majority. To see why Stewart is not allocated to a designation group please see the Ballyclare section below. Six seats changed hands in 2019. The UUP lost in Airport …

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Positively the last poll before the elections? maybe…

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white ceramic mug on table

Following hot on the heals of yesterday’s Belfast Telegraph poll from Lucid Talk, the Irish News has one today from Liverpool University. And there are some striking differences which you can see in the individual party charts. Sinn Feín 29.8% DUP 23% Alliance 14.5% UUP 12.8% SDLP 8.3% TUV 5% As with all polling the normal caveats apply: Margin of error. Liverpool University normally have a smaller sample than Lucid Talk, and therefore a larger margin of error of 3% …

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Last poll before the real poll: Lucid Talk’s latest

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black megaphone pendant

The final poll before an election is a good time to remember the caveats that should be applied to all polling: Margin of error. (In the case of Lucid Talk 2.3%) The time lapse between the poll and the actual vote – during which some voters will change their minds. (In this case three weeks.) The don’t knows – who might swing more one way than the other when they actually vote – if they vote at all. But for …

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More of the same heralds changes at Council elections: latest Irish News poll…

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question, question mark, opinion poll

As the May Council elections approach the pattern of party support established after the Assembly elections remains solid. That is the main take out from today’s Liverpool University poll in the Irish News. Sinn Féin 30.6% DUP 23.9% Alliance 15.4% UUP 11.3% SDLP 6.7% Just how static this support has been for the last six months will be seen in the following charts. But before looking at them, and analysing their implications for those Council elections, we need to consider …

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Donaldson’s Dilemma: to lead or to follow?

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silhouette of road signage during golden hour

The figures in today’s Lucid Talk poll for the Belfast Telegraph reveal the sheer scale of the challenge facing Jeffrey Donaldson. His initial reaction to the Windsor Framework was to avoid committing himself and to set up a mechanism – the panel of 8 chaired by Peter Robinson – which would permit him to delay a definitive response and spread responsibility for the final decision around the party. But poll results suggest that time could be his enemy and that …

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The on-again off-again Assembly election is currently “off” unless it is turned back “on”

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black and silver nissan steering wheel

As Jayne McCormack reports for the BBC, the legal obligation to call another Assembly election if no Executive is formed will be put back for another year. But he will still have the power to call one earlier if he chooses. Stormont election deadline delayed by a year – BBC News With the opinion polling telling us that a new election now would achieve nothing – leaving the parties in a broadly similar position to now – it was obvious …

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As the parties gear up for one (or two?) elections – the latest Lucid Talk poll…

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black and white printed textile

If the on-again off-again Assembly Election were held tomorrow, the results would look almost the same as they did last May, according to Lucid Talk’s new poll in the Belfast Telegraph. But it points to significant changes at the Council elections in May. Sinn Féin 31% (+2 from last election) DUP 25% (+4) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 10% (-1) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 7% (-1) Aontú 2% (+1) PBPA 1% (No change) Green 1% (-1) Before we look as the …

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Big 3 increase dominance in new poll…

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silhouette of road signage during golden hour

The latest Lucid Talk poll was published in the Belfast Telegraph this morning, but, as an experiment, I started writing this analysis the evening before. That way it was possible to think about what different results for each party might mean, free from any unconscious influence from knowing the actual figures; which are: Sinn Féin 32% (+3 from last election) DUP 27% (+6) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 9% (-2) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 5% (-3) DUP At the Assembly election …

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Party prospects in the “will-he? won’t-he?” election…

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maple trees during daytime

While the Secretary of State indulges in some hard dithering on when (or if?) to call a new Assembly election, the parties are already deep into election planning mode. Indeed, it might be said that an unofficial election campaign is already well underway. As the talks with the SoS continue, each party’s stance may be influenced by how they view their prospects in a coming election. And when the election is finally announced, a key question for each party will …

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United in prayer. New Lucid Talk poll…

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Are you happy?

Two party leaders will both be on their knees this morning, earnestly offering up the same plea to the heavens. “Please, please let there be no early Assembly election”. One of them, Colm Eastwood, has no control over the matter. The other, Jeffery Donaldson, has only to say the word for the current Assembly to continue its full term. But he is tortured by the message of this poll which tells him that Jim Allister may not allow him to …

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Dramatic poll results – but don’t get too excited….

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black and white printed textile

The Irish News has the first opinion poll since the Assembly elections, conducted for Liverpool University’s Institute for Irish Studies. The results will leave Sinn Féin supporters cock-a-hoop: unionist parties with their heads in their hands; and Alliance supporters quietly confident. Sinn Féin 30.9% (up1.9% since the Assembly elections) DUP 20.1% (down 1.2%) Alliance 15.3% (up 1.8%) SDLP 10.0% (up 0.8%) UUP 9.6% (down 1.6%) TUV 4.7% (down 2.9%) Green 2.9% (up 1.0%) Others 6.5% First the drama: This is …

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What now for the SDLP?

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It should have been different. The party had been doing so many of the right things. It had put the years of destructive dissension over leadership under Ritchie and McDonnell firmly behind it. It had recruited and groomed a new generation of talented public representatives. It had professionalised its organisation. It had been rewarded with a modest improvement in its 2019 Euro election vote – which held out the promise that the party could put an end to the previous …

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West Tyrone Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

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I have used the most recent Lucid Talk poll for my projection of party shares in the constituency. Unionist vote share has slipped in West Tyrone from a consistent 33% or 34% in all elections up to and including 2017. Since then, it has not gone above 32% and hit 29% at the last Westminster election. Nationalist performance has been a little more uneven over the period, with no discernible trend. While Others bumped along the bottom of the chart, …

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Uncertainty increased: the latest Irish News poll…

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black and white printed textile

There is a golden rule in reporting opinion polls: the more dramatic the poll result, the more cautiously it should be interpreted. The front-page headline of today’s Irish News, “Alliance and DUP neck and neck”, leaves little doubt that the latest Liverpool University poll is dramatic. SF 26.6% DUP and Alliance 18.2% each UUP 12.1% SDLP 10.5% TUV 5.7% Green 2.7% PBP 2.1% Others 3.9% The margin for error is 3.1% It is more productive to compare the changes between …

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Upper Bann Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

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This fairy tree always catches my eye on the A1 heading southbound between Loughbrickland and Sheepsbridge.

I have used the most recent Lucid Talk poll for my projection of party shares in the constituency. In Upper Bann, both unionist and nationalist shares have bobbed gently up and down by small amounts for most of the decade. Unionists have been on a bit of a downward slope since 2017, but two elections in the same year do not make a long-term trend. Nationalists, too, dropped at the last Westminster election, but only to a level they had …

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Strangford Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

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The wee town of Portaferry on the Ards Peninsula at Strangford Lough, taken from Castle Ward (July, 2019).

I have used the most recent Lucid Talk poll for my projection of party shares in the constituency. Once you strip out the effects of tactical voting at the Westminster elections, the underlying trend in unionist share in Strangford was slightly upwards in the first half of the decade, but it has taken a decided downturn since. Meanwhile, nationalists have, on the whole, held steady. The marked increase in others only got going in 2017. The party shares show just …

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South Down Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

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gray blocks

Note that I have used the most recent Lucid Talk poll for my projection of party shares in the constituency. The tactical voting by some unionists and others for the SDLP in South Down, which boosted the nationalist share at Westminster elections, appears to have disappeared by 2019. South Down is another one of those places where candidates from outside of the constituency’s main parties sometimes win significant numbers of votes. In the 2019 Local Government elections, these would have …

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Hopes, dreams and nightmares: What the new Lucid Talk poll means for each party…

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Believe in Yourself

The last Lucid Talk poll before the election appears in today’s Belfast Telegraph. It was conducted between Friday 22nd and Sunday 24th April. This means that some of the contributors will have been declaring their choice almost two weeks before the election itself. That’s only about halfway through the formal campaign. It’s important to remember that much can change before an election in that time frame. Historically many people only finally decide how they will vote in the last few …

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