Lessons from Scotland: “Helplessness, not independence, is the false dream… “

If you’ve read nothing else about Scottish politics (or more precisely, Scottish political culture), Neil Ascherton in the Sunday Herald yesterday reveals what underwrites the appeal of the discourse around Scottish independence: Some people now let themselves hope that the “independence dream is dead” or at least dying. In that Tuesday debate, Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale were irritated, as well as surprised, to find that Sturgeon had merely shifted the next indyref along the calendar. They want the idea of Scotland’s independence to …

Read more…

A new approach to deadlock in Northern Ireland

  A unique coincidence of events Standing back, it’s easy enough to see why the latest Assembly crisis is the longest and most intractable for over a decade. Unusually in recent times and in sharp contrast to the heady days of the Good Friday Agreement, this breakdown is set against background of momentous upheaval which typically, the local politicians rushed to exploit for their own causes.  For the DUP, Brexit revives the prospect of a physical border which in whatever …

Read more…

Charlie Gard: a life worth a legacy…

Charlie Gard will probably die in the next few days. His death I hope will be private, peaceful and dignified and my sincere sympathy to his parents Connie Yates and Chris Gard and I truly hope they can move on with their lives after the torture of the last few months. Charlie’s short, tragic life has been lived too much in the glare of publicity, and as a result many will know of his case and the legal wranglings surrounding …

Read more…

How the Con-DUP deal took the Barnett Bypass…

Hat tip to John Campbell on Good Morning Ulster this morning for a link to this interesting piece on what the Barnett Formula is, and what it is not, and how the DUP-Tory deal stands up to scrutiny: on a technical level, there is nothing in the Northern Ireland agreement that that contradicts any rules or laws. And of course, there are clearly special needs in Northern Ireland that may justify additional spending. However, there are a few reasons why …

Read more…

Update! Shock victory for free abortions in England for NI women as the government suddenly caves in to cross party pressure

The chancellor has just announced that the government intends to fund abortions in England for women from Northern Ireland. I recommend scrolling down the Guardian Live for the sequence of events ending in reverse order with the splash in George Osborne’s Evening  Standard, “Abortion Vote Chaos Hits May.” The Guardian believes this was done so fast and unexpectedly  to avoid  a Commons defeat on the Queen’s Speech, with some Tories supporting a Labour amendment  to introduce it. It carries a …

Read more…

Conservative pressure is increasing to allow NI abortions in England as a result of the deal with the DUP

The DUP deal with the Conservatives has elevated the refusal to allow Northern Ireland women free abortions in England under the NHS into a real issue in the House of Commons. And if Ian Paisley junior can be said to speak for his party (which is not always the case) the DUP may not oppose a change. This would help the party improve its image among the mass of MPs who opposed a deal with “dinosaurs.” Support for a change …

Read more…

“Look, this Carthage obsession of yours. For Jupiter’s sake, let it go, man!”

With the Scottish First Minister, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon, backing down, for now, from her previous strident position on indyref2 the BBC’s Scotland editor, Brian Taylor, detects the “scunner factor” at work. Voters in Scotland have thrilled to seven electoral tests in three years. They are already anxious over the uncertainty attendant upon Brexit. Are they ready for yet more eager talk from the SNP and the Scottish Government about the prospect of indyref2? Nicola Sturgeon has concluded that they …

Read more…

“Talking up the frailty of our peace for political capital is deeply insulting, opportunist and obscenely inaccurate…”

When you’re all quite finished laughing at the mendacious cartoon stereotyping of “the oul Orange deal”, here’s a more sobering analysis of why that money is needed, Michael Hugh Walker: The idea that our peace is so fragile diminishes the losses the generation before me suffered and disregards the investment in a terror-free existence that we as a nation have made, and continue to make, every day. Talking up the frailty of our peace for political capital is deeply insulting, …

Read more…

Resorting to law for violating impartiality won’t end political deadlock but fresh Westminster legislation now just might

It always happens, doesn’t it, that when political deadlock becomes tighter, legalistic arguments become more obsessive. It’s a hoot to claim that the once great  hero of the GFA  and now  the great scapegoat for all that’s gone wrong anywhere, anytime Tony Blair, conned the poor innocent parties to the St Andrew’s Agreement over an Irish Language Act.  Couldn’t they read? As barrack room lawyers par excellence themselves, couldn’t they recognise a hostage to fortune when they saw it? What …

Read more…

Irish Language Act: “Dr Paisley had been intensely displeased by the Blair administration’s trickery.”

To those still buying into the Major/Powell idea that the British government is always a neutral player in negotiations, try this account from Peter Robinson on how Blair set Sinn Fein up with a promise for an Irish Language Act he had no intention of asking the DUP to deliver: “It was Ian’s assessment – and in my view an accurate one – that if the government was prepared to con Sinn Féin in the way it did, they would …

Read more…

The Westminster deal has a confidence building effect which should allow the DUP and SF to confront their differences honestly – and soon, in the Assembly

The DUP deal at Westminster is reasonably secure. The prospects for a Stormont deal seem up in the air and due for postponement until the autumn. The best hope for today is that Sinn Fein may feel they’ve got just enough to continue the negotiations back in the Assembly pending the creation of an Executive in the autumn. This looks like requiring a period of temporary direct rule. .On Nolan I’ve just heard Malachi O’Doherty opining that Sinn Fein might …

Read more…

A good reason to return to Stormont? “What have Sinn Fein ever got you? Nothing.”

Here’s a revealing exchange between LBC’s liberal shock jock James O’Brien and ex-Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers: James O’Brien (JOB): How can Westminister observe rigorous impartiality to the political traditions in Northern Ireland when it is writing a seven-figure cheque for one side. Theresa Villiers (TV): The package of financial support is for Northern Ireland as a whole actually. It is very similar to kind of financial packages which have supported agreements to take powersharing forward in the …

Read more…

And there could be more dosh to come! But the government rejects demands from a chorus of women MPs to fund abortions for NI women

The payout could be higher as a result of studies of the impact of lower corporation tax and scrapping air passenger duty.  In its financial analysis the FT points out that Costs will be higher if the renewed commitment to allow Northern Ireland to set its own lower corporation tax rate and air passenger duty results in lost revenues to the UK exchequer. The DUP has confirmed to the Guardian that they will seek assurances that the block grant will …

Read more…

“It will be interesting to see what the delivery mechanism for that money will be.”

In his analysis of where the £1.5 billion, over a number years, from the Conservative/DUP arrangement will be spent, the BBC’s John Campbell makes a couple of interesting points about some of the new money, and all of the old money. There is also £100m to be spent on deprived communities over five years. It will be interesting to see what the delivery mechanism for that money will be. Stormont’s Social Investment Fund, which was also designed to help those …

Read more…

Con – DUP Supply and Confidence deal should get the UK through Brexit, but what about Stormont?

So the deal is done! (Thanks, Andy.) Welcome to confidence and supply politics, mam… As anticipated, the DUP’s end of the bargain seems pretty watertight in terms of granting the government some stability over the medium to long term… So what are they getting for this? Well, outside these conditions, a free hand to fall out with the government and force divisions as they see fit. There will be no local pressure in the chamber since all nationalist seats are now …

Read more…

First questions about the DUP deal with the Conservatives

Handing over the money is not contingent on restoring the Executive – at least in print. but it is clearly intended  to put pressure on Sinn Fein. If there is no Executive what happens with the new £1 billion and even the already promised £500 million? A budget has to be passed next month by the Executive or by Westminster. The DUP has accepted that the British government will be impartial  according to GFA principles for the Stormont talks and …

Read more…

Tory-DUP deal reached

Very briefly… source for all information is the Guardian as that was the first place I could find with the detailed documents! The agreement The short version is that the DUP will vote with the Government on the Queen’s Speech, the budget, all finance and money bills, supply and appropriation legislation and Estimates. In return, the Government agreed: No change to pensions triple lock and Winter Fuel Payment 2% of GDP on armed forces as per NATO commitment Implementation of …

Read more…

Do we want Westminster to impose uniform UK standards? On abortion and same sex marriage? How about an indemnity for soldiers?

 Social reform – on abortion and same sex marriage – is not only a bone of contention in the Stormont talks. It’s creating a clash with MPs across party at Westminster at a precarious time for the future of both legislatures. The Supreme Court’s rejection of the appeal against the decision of the Health Secretary for England Jeremy Hunt not to allow Northern Ireland women to have free abortions on the NHS in England may now become entangled in Westminster’s …

Read more…

Dodds: “We will work to see an end to the dark tunnel of austerity…”

Interesting line from Nigel Dodds, who leads the DUP at Westminster… The Belfast North MP said the economic outlook of Northern Ireland would be “easier to predict” with “stable” government both in Belfast and Westminster. He told MPs: “The electorate sent a very clear message to politicians about austerity at the election, and I think that it’s very clear since that election that people have to listen to what the people said.” Mr Dodds welcomed the election slogan of “prosperity …

Read more…

Why the DUP has acquired real power at Westminster (even if it cannot be overused)…

Nice piece by Jon Worth on what’s at stake here for the Tories as compared to the DUP…. …every day that drags on without a deal for May is one more win for the DUP – they are doing their job in the UK press making Northern Ireland’s issues heard. Ultimately all the DUP has to do is keep May’s government stumbling forward, and extract concessions on a case by case basis. The first case of this could be next …

Read more…