The cost of running: candidate spending in the 2019 local government election

Spending by candidates in the 2019 local government election is now available and when we delve into it, comparing candidate and party spend with the number of votes secured, a number of very interesting narratives emerge. The headline figure is that 819 candidates, representing 17 parties (plus 71 independents) spent a total of £650,140 in order to win 462 council seats. (It should be noted that there are only returns for 815 candidates as 4 candidates either did not make …

Read more…

By acting on abortion and equal marriage, Westminster has changed the dynamic of the talks

One day in politics can change everything. The Northern Ireland Executive Formations Bill was, until the 9th July, an uninteresting piece of legislation. It proposes to amend the Northern Ireland (Executive and Exercise of Formations Bill) 2018, a law passed in the wake of the collapse of the Assembly. The Secretary of State introduced the 2019 Bill to extend the period in which an Executive must be formed until the 21st October 2019. There’s a clause allowing an extension of …

Read more…

Making progress on parading – can Northern Ireland learn from Derry-Londonderry?

  As Northern Ireland moves towards what will hopefully be a peaceful 12th July, the manager of ‘the Derry Model’, Maeve McLoughlin – a former Sinn Fein MLA – reflects on how peaceful parading was negotiated, after years of conflict and tension in Derry-Londonderry.  “It was spurred on by a commitment to the city,” she says, “and by people who genuinely wanted to be in a better place. “That was the feeling of the Apprentice Boys as well.  They love …

Read more…

How often do the parties in Belfast City Hall actually vote together?

One of the great debates, and I use that term loosely, we have had over the past decade in Northern Irish politics is whether the Alliance Party are more nationalist or unionist. Instead of letting Alliance, and the people who vote for them, define what the party stands for, certain elements of the political establishment, in particular political unionism, have gone out of their way to attempt to define Alliance as being somewhere on the spectrum between anti-unionist and pro-republican. …

Read more…

No Deal would mean ” a blockade” of Northern Ireland. Is anybody listening? Does anybody care?

David Sterling, head of the Northern Ireland civil service Tony Connelly RTE’s ace Europe editor, has pulled together in its full awfulness the impact of No Deal on the Northern Ireland economy, amounting  “to a full blockade.”  Clearly well briefed by officials in Belfast, Dublin and Brussels, the message isn’t getting through in London where it matters most at the moment. Just consider this for a wee opener…. When the original exit date of 29 March approached, officials fretted that …

Read more…

Cracking the deadlock over an Irish language Act will test whether a new political order is emerging

If a Tele article by Nelson Mc Causland and Newsletter reports are anything to go by, agreement on an Irish Language Act and therefore the return of Stormont are as far away as ever. The problem remains over an acht na Gaelige that stands alone. As unionists perceive it, this constitutes a claim superior to their cultural needs. It was supposed to have been sorted by the draft agreement of February last year but the DUP refused to sign off, …

Read more…

The Alliance Party’s gains in the local and European elections won’t necessarily lead to Assembly election success

As expected, Naomi Long won a seat in the European Parliament following the Alliance Party’s success at the local elections earlier in the month. However, it isn’t necessarily a given that the Alliance Party’s success at the local and European level will translate to success in any future Assembly election. This is because the areas that Alliance increased their vote in aren’t optimal from the point of view of maximizing their representation in the Assembly. Unlike the system in Israel, …

Read more…

The implications of Alliance’s successes for how our people are represented and governed can mean win:win all round

Good to see Newton following up the implications of Alliance’s electoral successes From the Irish Times Sinn Féin and the DUP both want to preserve the veto for their own purposes. How sustainable would that be if Alliance doubled its Assembly representation, given it has just doubled its council and European votes? In theory, none of this would break the rules. In practice, it would make designation – a foundation of devolution – look redundant and perverse. Alliance’s breakthrough could …

Read more…

Sinn Féin are the Greatest Advocates for a United Ireland but are they the Biggest Barrier to it?

In the wake of the local and European elections, North & South of Ireland, a number of things have become clear for both Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland, and significantly, questions will be asked of Sinn Féin after a hammering at the ballot box. Sinn Féin have been the most vocal and vociferous advocates for a United Ireland, since their inception. It is their raison d’être and has dictated everything for them from policy to electoral strategy to fundraising …

Read more…

Without getting carried away, we should dare to hope that the Alliance surge will spark a positive response from the DUP and Sinn Fein

Photo-PA After the European election – zombie or real life, who knows? – we’re in the even odder position of politics in Northern Ireland looking ever so slightly healthier than the politics of the UK as a whole. I compare NI with “UK” rather than “GB” because the Westminster scene presents the DUP with tough choices I’ll come to later. While I haven’t heard a cheep from the Stormont talks as they  (presumably)  prepare to  resume, the Alliance surge in …

Read more…

“Justice for victims is giving them a society that works”

Justice for victims is achieved by “giving them a society that works”, says Fergus O’Dowd TD of Fine Gael.  He is a member of the Oireachtas Good Friday Implementation Committee and was appointed earlier this year by Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to lead a new Fine Gael group to develop links with Northern Ireland.  He is interviewed in the latest Forward Together podcast. Discussing how to deal with events of the past, Fergus stresses that victims and their relatives must be …

Read more…

In praise of Citizens’ Assemblies – Peter Sheridan believes they can provide solutions to some of Northern Ireland’s most intractable problems

Citizens’ assemblies should be widely used to address the problems faced by communities across Northern Ireland, argues Peter Sheridan, the chief executive of Co-operation Ireland. He was interviewed in the latest Forward Together podcast. “It works in Canada, it works in Iceland: there are examples all around the world.”  Speaking before the murder of Lyra McKee, Peter continues: “You pick an area and pick a problem, you randomly select a group of people from the electoral register and depending on …

Read more…

Leading human rights expert challenges Sinn Fein on “rights” stance

Brice Dickson, normally a sober sounding academic lawyer and a former head of the NI Human Rights Commission  was first famous  for recanting on his recommendation for an  “all singing,  all dancing”  NI  Bill of Rights.  In the Newsletter today Brice has boldly entered the fray of the all party talks at Stormont to point out flaws in Sinn Fein’s starting position.   Sinn Fein has abused the concept of human rights by setting up such rights as pre-conditions for …

Read more…

Sterling, Sweeney,Widdis, McKibbin and Gray. These are the people who could guide Stormont through to restoration

The latest set of Northern Ireland political talks look like a walk in the park compared to struggling through the tangles of Brexit. On the brink of transition, the British government is in a poor position to exert the kind of pressure to nudge the parties towards agreement.  Some signs of life can be seen though.  British- Irish cooperation has at resumed and is even managing to iron out some of the problems caused by Brexit over the common travel …

Read more…

Post election analysis

The seats The ballots have been cast, the votes have been counted, the results are in and the spinning has begun. Despite thoughts before the election that both the DUP and Sinn Féin would consolidate their support and increase their seats, the DUP managed to lose 8 seats and Sinn Féin saw no change to their total. The failure of the two big parties to make gains did not, however, translate into victories for the UUP and SDLP, with both …

Read more…

Centre parties have captured a significant number of seats from both nationalists and unionists at the local elections

With the counting now concluded in the 2019 Northern Ireland council elections, it is apparent that centrist parties have captured a significant number of seats from both nationalist and unionist parties. However, nationalist parties have captured enough seats from unionists to keep their total number of seats across the councils roughly the same, whilst the number of unionist councillors has dropped substantially. The number of seats won by each party/group in 2014 and 2019 is broken down in the table …

Read more…

Centre ground parties advance and the DUP consolidate the unionist vote at the 2019 local elections

The centre ground parties, and the Alliance Party in particular, have made significant gains at the May 2019 local elections. With all of the first preference votes now counted, the Alliance Party made the largest gain of the share of the first-preference vote, up by 4.9% from the 6.6% received in 2014 to 11.5% in this year’s poll. The Green Party more than doubled their share of the vote from 0.9% in 2014 to 2.1%, whilst People Before Profit received …

Read more…

Alliance Party gains point to a problem within unionism

Same old, same old. That was the prediction for Northern Ireland’s 2019 local elections. We’ve still gone one more day of results to come but it’s been anything but boring so far. From Aine Grogan’s stunning victory in Botanic to Paul McCusker’s vote tally in Oldpark, there have been some notable headlines in this election. Progressive unionist Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston lost her seat but People Before Profit’s Fiona Ferguson triumphed. The DUP went up and it elected its first openly gay …

Read more…

The revival of dynamic British- Irish solidarity is essential for rescuing the politics of Northern Ireland

Perhaps the murder of a model for her generation will produce a paradigm shift in politics. Perhaps they’ll seize the emotion of the moment and strike a deal.   Had it not been for Lyra’s murder, the review of the GFA institutions would have been perfunctory.  Active British government involvement in the government of Northern Ireland had virtually ceased.  British- Irish relations were in cold storage over Brexit.  Vote harvesting is the season’s preoccupation as far as the eye can see, …

Read more…

#LE19 Battlegrounds: Erne West

As well as sharing a border with the other wards in the Fermanagh Omagh District Council, Erne West shares a border with the Republic of Ireland. A border that has been much discussed in recent months as Brexit has unfolded. Indeed, some of the major villages within this ward have been frequently visited by politicians during the Brexit negotiations includin leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg who visited Belcoo in June 2018. The ward is heavily associated with agriculture and according to NISRA …

Read more…