General Election 2015 – the bookmaker’s perspective

This week I attended the talk given by Peter Kellner, President of YouGov.  It was fascinating to hear one of the leading lights of the political polling community explain his thoughts and opinions on the coming election, where issues such as the rise of the SNP and UKIP has made this a uniquely difficult election to call. Previously, I had taken the approach of using council election results to gauge the strength of opinion in each constituency. This time I …

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And they’re off (well, they’re under starters orders…)

So the 2011 Irish General Election (or #ge11) has just got closer as the Greens withdraw from the government; As Colm Tobin (the other one) puts it, it’s “the equivalent of Bin Laden sprinting towards the Twin Towers with a fire extinguisher.” So instead of a March election, it’s starting to look like a date in February. And what do the bookies think about the outcome now? The markets are unusually interesting for broad election outcomes as there are a …

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