There are two perspectives growing around the Brexit deal. One in Ireland (where it is generally welcomed by majorities north and south), and the other in Britain, where the bulk of Parliament does not want to touch it. Only one of these matters.
The Guardian has put together a guide to sentiment within the House of Commons…
That the DUP has signalled their opposition, does not necessarily mean they will vote against it. Nor, when it comes to the threat of a three-line whip will all of those Tories stay on the wrong side of the aisle from their leader Mrs May.
But Mrs May faces an overwhelming consensus on the downsides of her deal, including the Northern Ireland proposal. Her only card within this parliament is that there is no consensus for any alternative offering (should anyone care to share one) either.
It is possible that support from the UK’s big press to help pressure enough wavering MPs to buy her soft version of Brexit and save her Premiership. At what exact cost, we will only be able to tell in the longer term, but a lengthy period of austerity and stagnation seem likely.
Getting rid of May won’t solve anything unless her Tory successor has an alternative plan their own party (and the DUP) can all buy into. A moderate solution requiring MPs from all over the house to break whips is unlikely too.
If the measure is voted down, it is hard to see how it comes back. As the clock continues ticking, it would surely lead to a vote of confidence, which if also lost would give her two weeks to get something else from the EU. [Yes but what? – Ed.] No idea.
What is clear is that right now, there is no public will behind any form of future action.
For well you know it’s a fool who plays it cool
By making his world a little colder
John Lennon and Paul McCartney
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty