May suggestion that Phase One can roll into Phase Two is not compliant with A50…

Interesting development, coming in on the heel of the news that the British PM failed to share with the DUP, turns out that no only has Mrs May not told Mrs Foster what she was planning, she also has yet to discuss the matter of what sort of Brexit she wants with the Cabinet.

That suggests she’s going to have major problems hammering this together. More concerning from an Irish point of view, she seems to think that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, then going on to tell Jeremy Corbin that what’s not agreed about at Phase 1, can be rolled over onto Phase 2.

In fact, that is not compliant with the Article 50 schedule. This may be the point at which the Taoiseach may have to pull that prementioned veto card from out of the pack. Mrs May has quite a pack of wild cards to pull together at very short notice. The ebbing of good will over the last couple of weeks won’t help.

#Gulp.

 

,

  • file

    I think the time to prevent the rest of Europe being poisoned against the UK has come and gone.

  • file

    Listen carefully Hawk: the UK agreed, eventually, to this two stage process. When you agree something in the real world, you do not then go back on your word and try to re-negotiate it. And the UK govt in this instance is not trying to do that. But you are.

  • Rapparee

    Getting your info from Brexitcentral is akin to Waterford Whispers, https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/. Check it out, their lead story atm is about a local dog that`s very choosy about were he does his business. A step above anything I`ve seen on Brexitcentral to date.

    Get your head out of the bubble

  • Gavin Crowley

    Just to expand. By the age of 18 my exposure to unionists was limited to a few bad interactions with the blazers in a sports context, and a narrow escape from an Apprentice Boys’ roadblock. It took about 3 times as many positive interactions to remove the stain of their behaviour from hanging around the heads of all unionists.

    The positive interactions come from small interactions like the occasional business interactions I mentioned above. The negative interactions will continue to turn up at a steady small rate, the positives can be cut off easily by a bad border.

    It may seem trivial to you, but these small interactions have stripped away any sneaking regard I had growing up, strengthened my support for the constitutional approach and opened my eyes to the residual Britishness I have in me from the legacy of history. This path of development will be unlikely to happen for my children if the border changes – the positive interactions just won’t happen. People will get their CCTV cameras elsewhere, repair tools elsewhere etc. and will never stumble upon decent unionists.

  • Barneyt

    I’d say the British will at the insistence of the DUP if it goes that far. It’s going to be an unwholy mess if it happens however. We can no longer look to the US for any form of sympathy or indeed diplomacy

  • Barneyt

    Well at least they delivered on the ILA….. wait a minute…

  • Barneyt

    Then Rees-mogg kicks in? Oh joy

  • Jess McAnerney

    So you mean the army will be coming back to provide security
    That is indeed what I believe the DUP want
    I was told I was barking for even suggesting it last week

  • Jess McAnerney

    Isn’t it somewhat Ironic that no regulatory divergence between NI and GB would mean abortion on demand, gay marriage legislation and an Irish language act. Perhaps only the DUP are allowed to have opt out clauses

  • lizmcneill

    Or getting your info from Sputnik News.

  • 05OCT68

    A House of Lords report has argued that legally the UK isn’t required to pay a penny. This has been disputed by some legal experts,. Fullfacts.org

  • lizmcneill

    Like a hostage negotiation where you threaten to shoot yourself in the head.

  • 05OCT68

    Aye the bond markets would lend, but at eye watering rates.

  • Rapparee

    Don`t know, never watched it, maybe ye should try the Irish Times and support an good Irish paper.

  • Granni Trixie

    We have reached an all time low to bring someone’s health into the debate. Not relevant.

  • Paul Culloty

    Some “confection”, if 58% of people in NI want to stay in the Single Market, and 48% would vote for a UI because of a Hard Brexit!

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/58-of-people-in-northern-ireland-want-to-stay-in-single-market-and-customs-union-after-brexit-817538.html

  • Lagos1

    But why would we expect your client to have any difficulty and for him to worry about pre-clearance? It sounds very much as though he would fall into that local small business category that the WTO class as being exempt from being considered as being economically significant international trade and that neither side would be expected to bother with (indeed, the UK has explicitly said as much).

  • Lagos1

    It’s either lite Brexit or no Brexit.

    I don’t agree. Hard Brexit is the default conclusion if there is no agreement. And agreement is precisely what is lacking. Therefore all three are possible and no Brexit is the least likely when we consider what the terms would be for the UK to reverse direction.

  • Lagos1

    why would they bother?

  • Lagos1

    But it wasn’t really. The UK conceded to it in order to get things rolling whilst saying that it made no sense and would eventually come unstuck because trade discussion was vital for progress.

    They have been proved right. However they never really had to convince the EU because it did make sense from a negotiating point of view designed to wring out as many concessions from the UK ahead of the main talks.

  • Gavin Crowley

    He’s very averse to redtape or complications of any sort – he’ll just cut it loose if it has to occupy his attention for long.
    He is an economically significant importer from England (and Germany). As such he may be classed as a significant operator irrespective of the quantity crossing in the other direction. Or he may not. We don’t know yet.

    His goods can cross the border for other reasons; transit, to be repaired, just because they are in the van when he happens to cross the border for other purposes. It’s all hassle he doesn’t need in his life.

    The value of goods in his vehicle on crossing the border would be well over any small trader limits, but only a small fraction would ever be sold in Northern Ireland.

  • John

    And still the world does not end, eventually the rates go down and the silly process runs on and on and on.

  • Rapparee

    57.8% support special status & 47.9% support a United Ireland, keep her lit Arlene we are nearly there. I reckon Gerry should give her honorary Sinn Fèin membership for life.

    Time for the “Border Poll”.

    https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/938689021869481985?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    I see Paul below beat me too it, apologies, worth posting again for our Unionist friends and future countrymen/women.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    If you’re accepting current poll findings on questions around special status and customs borders and so on, can you explain this (from last week’s QUB / Ipsos MORI study):
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b1670fa7daeda7581206a9beaf843831fda9d1bc8430e9c499b9951bb6c7ff5.png

    As a professional researcher who has been doing detailed cognitive pre-testing of survey wording with focus groups for almost 20 years, I’ll tell you what that data says to me: ***respondents didn’t understand the question***

  • Rapparee

    Oh I see, four legs good, two legs bad.

    I have you.

  • ‘island man

    Make no bones about it, the DUP have wanted a border since the last one came down, it’s clear in their support base that a border is wanted. The reason why they can’t state their desire out loud is that they’ll be decried for the sectarian mindset they so clearly have. The likes of Trump and the DUP, cut from the same cloth. They’re not content unless they provoke and destabilise.

  • Barneyt

    The European Commission is reporting there is still “no white smoke” on a brexit deal. Are they deliberately trying to goad the DUP with these papal references 🙂

  • ‘island man

    Lol

  • Rapparee

    I imagine the EU are better informed on the current situation in the North than the majority of Westminster, which lets be honest wouldn`t be hard. They know public opinion on the issue is not with the terrible twins, and will let the DUP/Tory stew come to the boil, and boil over if needs be.

  • Ciaran Moore

    The comment from the Paul Drechsler of the CBI that ‘Rome is Burning’ and that those businesses with Brexit contingency plans demonstrates the disparity in pressure from the ticking clock between Uk and EU.

    Yes, Ireland and other nations risk significant impacts in the event of restrictions on UK trade whether through tariffs, NTBs or simple logistical problems post March 2019.

    But the UK economy will start feeling the pain early 2018 as business start to put in contingencies – either in the UK looking to move out or outside the UK shifting supply changes away and finding new suppliers. In my own job we have a Brexit impact report sitting on a shelf, mainly focussed on data flows if UK leaves the EEA. No real damage if we lack clarity until late next year which leaves 6 months to manage any changes – but we have stopped any new systems development with an exposure to UK firms or data centres.

    It was not accidental that Varadkar has been referring to picking things up next year if a deal is not practical – another couple of months of reality dawning in Westminster is only to the advantage of the EU.

  • Rapparee

    Exactly, the UK`s economic & political system is in the midst of a nervous breakdown atm. Events are taking on a life of their own at this stage, where the point of no return seems fast approaching.

  • sparrow

    You’ve said exactly the same about other polls posted up here that don’t support a unionist perspective on things. Yet you’re also forever telling us that polls show a big majority in favour of the union, therefore there’s no requirement for the SoS to call for a border vote. Here’s something you might find useful.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2917255/

  • Cadogan West

    It is very relevant, as my CO fly on the wall as does HP Sauce in PE clearly say she will resign due to health before Brexit she is past it come on wise up that conference speech with all the stuff falling off the walls was an omen. The Brexit talks are shambolic, Corbyn asked at PMQ about the border and she replied we will do that at stage 2! Other bods in CO say otherwise as do the ejits in the DUP. They are all singing from different hymn sheets and none has a workable plan at all. This is what will happen soon.

  • Rapparee

    Imagine if the Scots were to declare a UDI in response to a worsening situation in the event of a threatened hard brexit by the hard right, the UK would just implode in on itself, economically & politically. They really need a national government to step up and take the DUP and the brexit loons off the table and literally neuter them.

  • Damien Mullan

    There is no majority for a Hard Brexit in Parliament. We are but weeks or months away from a fracture in the Tory Party, one that has been decades in the making, it’s the pro-business lobby against the English/British Nationalist lobby of the Conservative Party. There are Conservatives who know the immense damage that a No Deal will unleash, like a cascading avalanche, it will wreck the financial hub of London, the one glorious bright spot of the UK economy, which once damaged, will blow a hole in the public finances and exacerbate an already large budget deficit and National Debt. The pro-business lobby of the Conservative Party have been rather mute, awaiting to see developments and the prospects of a sensible divorce, but should they get a whiff of the inevitability towards a hard brexit, being now touted by their colleagues in the party, they are likely to assert themselves, they have the precedents established by previous rebellions from the Eurosceptic brigade, or the ‘bas***ds’, as John Major referred to them.

    Leaving the EU is an order of magnitude comparable to the Home Rule crises that broke the Liberal Party, and the Tariff/Free Trade crises that broke the Conservative Party in the early twentieth century. With Joseph Chamberlain being the chief protagonist in both instances, first, as a Liberal he did more to divide that party over Home Rule than almost any other single individual, when he then crossed the floor to the Conservative Party, he devilishly set about dividing the Tories over the acrimonious Tariffs versus Free Trade debate, advocating as the arch protectionist for a tariff war against other industrial nations.

    A Hard Brexit opens up existential crises across the UK. It renders the GFA limp and mortally wounded. It infuriates the Scots. It challenges and deeply ruptures London’s preeminence as the center of capital and finance in Europe, doing untold damage to the public finances. The current British government has shown a woeful ineptitude of the task of formulating a coherent and workable negotiating strategy, of knowing its own mind, it has shown an ignorance of the constitutional faults lines that run within the UK itself, whether that be of the DUP or Ruth Davidson.

    The British government cannot move the position of the Irish government over the need for clear and precise assurances on the border. The UK is up against other sovereign independent state there, regardless of the other 26 EU member states that also stand behind Ireland, as nice to have as that is, it doesn’t alter the immovability of the Irish government position, as it basically boils down to an issue of profound national interest. That leaves the only maneuverability to come from within the UK political system itself, and here May must square off the DUP, Ruth Davidson, the Brexit Tories, and the Remain Tories. It’s an almost impossible task, but someone within the UK political system is going to have to bend, or her government breaks.

  • Zorin001

    If only Paisley was still with us, Big Ian in his prime versus Pope Francis would be something to see, both big lads!

  • Cadogan West

    Certainly not JRM could not find a fart in an astronaut suit. He would alienate voters, he looks out of place wherever he is, 22 Com will have to find a stalking horse or donkey in a broom cupboard.
    Have you seen the latest RHI news?

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/rhi-scandal/civil-servant-with-an-arts-degree-was-left-to-run-rhi-on-his-own-36382864.html
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/rhi-scandal/stormont-department-unqualified-to-operate-rhi-project-probe-told-36385848.html

  • Granni Trixie

    You could have said all that and not brought a health (private,get it?) condition into it.

  • Damien Mullan

    “The withdrawal will take account its future relationship”

    Relationship is not defined, as it could mean just about anything, as the current UK negotiating strategy indicates. The UK could very well conclude a withdrawal agreement and the proceed to WTO rules if it so desired.

    So the arrangements of the withdrawal, say over the budget, would see the UK take its portion of liabilities, but that might take into account some programs that the UK may wish to retain participation in going forward, so that would be the ‘taking account’ portion feeding into Phase One.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    Leaving the rude comments aside, what’s your explanation of the anomaly in the data?

  • MainlandUlsterman

    and again, what’s your explanation for the anomalous data I posted – or just putting fingers in ears here?

  • MainlandUlsterman

    that’s a big ‘if’ though – I haven’t had a chance to look at the question wording and response options yet, but previous surveys on this have thrown up some really crazy data that can’t be explained, other than by the distinct possibility a lot of respondents are not understanding the questions.

    I posted this elsewhere in this thread, this is from the QUB / Ipsos MORI study: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b1670fa7daeda7581206a9beaf843831fda9d1bc8430e9c499b9951bb6c7ff5.png
    Done by really reputable academic and good researchers at Ipsos MORI and the question wording is a pretty decent stab at capturing the issue. But it’s not worked. The results for unionist respondents show that at the receiving end, a lot of respondents may be just really confused about what they have been asked. The data makes no sense at all, given everything else we know about unionist opinion in other studies. “Perhaps surprisingly” being understatement of the century.

  • Cadogan West

    Look even Morgan Stanley have written her off in 2018. My money is with them they should know.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-may-government-to-collapse-in-2018-2017-9

  • MainlandUlsterman

    Just to add if anyone’s interested. My best guess is based on an old home-spun research industry insight. Give people a statement about something people have not thought about much and struggle to understand and you get meaningless data back.

    This is why on complex issues, we do deliberative work as a complement – that is, you get people in for a long session, ask a question like that at the start of the day, then you give people more information, let them discuss it. Then you see how opinion shifts over the day and where people are at the end of it. I was doing something recently for example on some medical research. At the start you get what turned out to be really random views, because people had got the wrong end of various sticks on the questions. By the end you have worked out how to ask the questions in a way people can reliably answer – or worked out that you just can’t do meaningful survey research on some areas that are just too technical.

    The Brexit vote was a bit like that too, it needed an extended campaign before a lot of people had an idea what they thought about it.

    It’s all a good argument for representative democracy, where our MPs can get into the detail on our behalf on complex issues, over referenda and government by survey result.

    Would be interested to hear views of other research professionals in particular on this one.

  • Sharpie

    I have wondered this for a long time. Surely this is the time for a Government of National Unity. The only thing stopping that form happening i’d say is the vitriol towards Corbyn from the Tories. When the inevitable collapse comes in Feb / March then that option I feel will be on the agenda.

  • Hawk

    Listen carefully file: you are making a seperate point to the one I have been making.

    Others have wrongly been suggesting that this phased ‘process’ is written into Article 50. That is not the case, that is what I have pointed out.

    I have said from the start that the British have played their hand very poorly. Part of that is them caving in on deciding the agree money upfront. I’m perfectly within my rights to be critical.

    Thanks

  • Hawk

    That relationship is specifically referenced as inclusion of trade in the EU’s own publication on April 29: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/

    This should be obvious because the EU started out as a trading block and counties relationship with the EU revolved around trade agreements.

  • Lagos1

    But my point is that you don’t need a consensus for a hard Brexit. You just need enough indecision. And this risk of indecision isn’t only from the UK. The EU also needs to make a united decision. This is the case now for example where Ireland is upping the stakes whilst the rest of the EU would be more than happy to move on.

    But beyond this, a hard Brexit is actually becoming more and more attractive as the negotiations carry on. That is why is really is a realistic possibility. Far more realistic than the UK remaining in the EU. There is no chance of this because the UK would never be able to return with the same conditions and this would make it totally unpalatable.

  • Rapparee

    Rude??
    It`s not an anomaly, they are the results of a poll. If you`re not happy with the outcome, why not commission one yourself and get back to us with the results for comparison. If you want to deny the realities of change, that`s your prerogative.

  • Damien Mullan

    “But my point is that you don’t need a consensus for a hard Brexit. You just need enough indecision.”

    It only requires the British PM, who ever that is, to rescind the Article 50 letter to cancel the process.

    The EU does not want to do anything that would ensure a hard border and thus puncher the most successful peace process in Europe. It also wants to ensure that the integrity of the internal market is not compromised. That is the reason why there isn’t a slip of paper between the EU and Ireland on the border. So EU states are not happy to simple move on, thus Ireland’s insistence is not throwing a wrench into the works. We have no knowledge that detects any rumblings making the rounds in either Brussels or other European capitals suggesting Ireland is overplaying this, they know that the border issue in Ireland, may, by proxy, settle the issue of regulatory alignment that will have to be addressed in Phase Two anyway. So its an early win for the EU27 as whole, as the border issue crystallizes this issue now. That’s why there hasn’t been a cricket noise out of Europe on this.

  • Damien Mullan

    Incorrect.

    The chapters of accession, thus the acquis (body of EU law), touch on more than just trade.

    Free movement of goods
    Freedom of movement for workers
    Right of establishment and freedom to provide services
    Free movement of capital
    Public procurement
    Company law
    Intellectual property law
    Competition policy
    Financial services
    Information society and media
    Agriculture and rural development
    Food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary policy
    Fisheries
    Transport policy
    Energy
    Taxation
    Economic and monetary policy
    Statistics
    Social policy and employment
    (including anti-discrimination and equal opportunities for women and men)
    Enterprise and industrial policy
    Trans-European networks
    Regional policy and co-ordination of structural instruments
    Judiciary and fundamental rights
    Justice, freedom and security
    Science and research
    Education and culture
    Environment
    Consumer and health protection
    Customs union
    External relations
    Foreign, security and defence policy
    Financial control
    Financial and budgetary provisions
    Institutions
    Other issues

  • Tochais Siorai

    Corbyn will be bypassed in such a scenario by his own MPs.

  • Hawk

    What exactly is incorrect about what I have said?

    The EU did start out as a trading block, that’s why I said ‘started out’.

    At NO point did I say it was SOLEY a trade body, yet trade was the primary focus when it was the EEC.

    It’s very easy to knock strawmen Damien. Perhaps you should confine yourself to what I actually write.

    This is wonderfully off topic. The claim was the EU had a ‘process’ in the treaties that were phased that prohibited trade talk. This is incorrect.

  • Hawk

    It has nothing to do with novel ideas, but rather having a leader with the political clout/capital to direct the negotiations in the appropriate manner.

    May either cannot or will not set out her stall. That weakness means she cannot show the necessary strength in the negiotiations with the EU.

    I also said in my very first post that this was NOT my idea. Nice try Rog.

  • sparrow

    Unlike you, I don’t have experience in this area so I won’t comment on the data. The people who put these polls together are, like you, professionals in this field. I would find it more credible if you were finding fault with their work on an even handed basis, but you seem to accept polls which promote the unionist cause, and rubbish anything which supports a nationalist perspective. You’ve even picked holes in the census figures on the same basis. Genuinely, I don’t think I’m the one adopting the fingers in the ears approach.

  • file

    I realise that,and also realise that the whole ‘what does it actually say in article 50’ is pointless hot air with no purpose as what has actually been agreed by the two parties -whether or not it is stipulated in Article 50 – is a two stage process. So let it go, move on, nothing to see here …

  • file

    here is why the EU side pull out their hair at the Brits. If something is conceded, it is agreed, and not to be revisited. This is how adults operate and these are the rules of senior hurling.

  • Roger

    Yes. Indeed. Nothing to do with the position the UK has put itself in. Far more to do with the personality and competence of its leader.

    Had the UK a Macron, a Trump, a Zuma, a Varadkar or a Ping, no doubt it’d all be plain sailing.

  • Hawk

    I’m sure your over simplistic assumptions about my beliefs make you feel clever Rog, but in your attempt to highlight my supposed naiveity you’ve inadvertently highlighted your own.

    I mean who knew the U.K. ‘put itself’ in this position. This is brand NEW information – ring the guardian (no doubt) to inform them of your discoveries. LOL!

    It would be great if you didn’t bother replying to me again. Thanks.

  • Hawk

    Agreed.

  • Barneyt

    Had there been a meltdown and the UK decided to leave for WTO rules and a hard border, what eventually would have followed would be some form of troop deployment…..particularly if there was a change of leadership within the Tory ranks and they lurched again to the right. Luckily most see that is not in anyones interest, but under extreme circumstances, I could see NI going into reverse indeed.

  • Lagos1

    Saying that is all very well, but it is a lot less convincing to pull the “we all agreed” argument when you bully someone into doing what you want even though they tell you they don’t want to and that it is a bad idea. This is the case with the EU.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    No I will rubbish any poll, as ex-colleagues will tell you 🙂 Doesn’t always win you popularity contests but I like to think they are grateful in the end. In work I’m doing it at a pre-test stage, and the purpose is to improve the questionnaire so you get meaningul results, so ultimately it helps them (I like to think)

  • MainlandUlsterman

    Don’t take anything at face value – always ask, am I finding out what people actually, really think on this issue. The Census is done pretty darned well, but even there, some questions aren’t capable of clear answers – e.g. the ones on identities. It is just so hard to get this well in any survey – they are blunt instruments at the end of the day and they have limited space to explore things in the level of detail you sometimes need.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    So your answer to a very clearly set out anomaly, is simply to pretend it’s not there? OK …

  • Rapparee

    A border poll will be the true arbiter of such an issue, lets have one, instead of running from the inevitable.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    we can have one when proper polls asking the standard question indicate the result would be close. This one isn’t the question the SoS will be looking at when judging if a poll is needed.

  • Rapparee

    I`m quiet relaxed in relation to the timing of a border poll, its the border that was the issue. The north/south dimension will be maintained and strengthened, and that`s what is of importance. As for a border poll, that is a certainty. Its for Unionism to accept that it will happen and have their ducks in a row to meet that challenge, or just keep on with the pretence that it will never occur . Its totally their choice.

  • MainlandUlsterman

    I agree, there will probably be one at some point. Whether it’s sooner or later depends on how soft a Brexit we can get. I’m hoping for a general election, new government and a very soft Brexit, with option to re-enter EU in time. This whole episode has done big damage to the Union. Thanks DUP and thanks idiot Leavers. I said at the time you can be a unionist or you can be a Leaver – you can’t really be both.