If you’re wondering what happened to Northern Ireland’s political timetable (there isn’t one)…

HNIW99 from The Detail on Vimeo.

  • Zeno3

    Professionals usually have an eye for detail Seaan. They can usually produce evidence when it’s required. So link to where I have posted this, if you don’t mind.

    “your (my) insistence that the figures “prove” a United Ireland is not going to occur in the near future”

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Zeno, I’ve been explaining this to you for a fortnight, and all you do is repeat the same mantra. The Union may be your religion, I can understand your unquestioning faith and your need to denigrate “unbelievers” such s myself, but I’m still waiting for a “conversation” where you actually address the points I’ve already raised with something other than simply repeating percentages which are themselves contingent and accordingly highly qualifiable. In the final analysis, all your figures actually “prove” is that you (and others who “trust” in such predictions) believe them to confirm that something will not happen.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Zeno, I can only go on what I’ve been told recently by my contacts “in the know” over the water regarding plans to axe all subsidies, interestingly confirmed by an informed commentator on “Farming Today” just before 6.00am this morning. The EU has recently been reconfiguring common agricultural policy to minimalist abuses, and I myself have argued along with George (a friend of a friend of mine) about the iniquity of the present system which rewards by size. But the demand that poor farmers on marginal land are required to be entirely commercial as in New Zealand is unrealistic if we are to avoid the collapse of the more remote parts of our countryside into an unmanageable landscape.

    Like RHI needed, and did not get, we here need intelligent thought out policy, not simply the usual half baked short-termism which the UK specialises in. I entirely agree with George that we need an upper agricultural subsidy limit which targets aid to struggling marginal farmers, and does not reward those who accumulate land simply to collect subsidy.

  • Zeno3

    The problem you have Seaan is not paying attention to what I am posting. And because you haven’t paid attention you post some ridiculous nonsense .
    “The Union may be (my) religion” I mean really, where did you get that?
    I have consistently said there is no EVIDENCE that a UI is coming anytime soon or even anytime. If there is let’s see it. I have pointed out that all the available evidence points in the opposite direction. Polls, Census,Election results and surveys. You rubbish polls and ignore the rest. The Secretary of State who is the person who can call a referendum examines the same figures I do, polls and election results and I have linked that to you and you have ignored it.
    You can make your decisions based on what Craig said in the 30’s or what Voltaire said or what some Tory chum in London says but reality has worked very well for me up to now, so I’m sticking with it.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    I’ve pointed out that polls and election results, while the may “suggest”, can, in reality, “prove” nothing. Your “evidence” can only her “sampling” when it comes to the issue of reunification, not evidence in any verifiable sense (how do you “verify” what has not occurred?), so, as I have been telling you over and over, it is not evidence at all. Evidence is “the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.” The validity of the propositions that re-unification will or will not happen shortly simply cannot be proven, as I have been pointing out to you for fortnight. That you believe, regarding reunification, that “all the available evidence points in the opposite direction” clearly shows that while you assiduously read the Unionist press, and use the term evidence in the slangy sense in which confused journalists use it, you have as yet to understand that the material you rely on can only “suggest”, it cannot “prove”. Accordingly, any belief in it is an act of faith, not of informed understanding, hence my suggestion that your great faith in the ongoing Union suggests something of a religious rather than a scientific approach.

  • Zeno3

    “Accordingly, any belief in it is an act of faith,”

    Of course it is if you are a Monk or something. Belief without evidence is religious faith and the sort of thing encouraged by cults. The rest of us just analyse the available data and reach a conclusion. It’s not that difficult if you have the training and experience.
    To win a referendum with an 85% turnout you need 533,253 Votes.
    To win a referendum with an 80% turnout you need 501,885 Votes.
    To win by 1.
    Simple enough. If every single person who voted Nationalist last time ,all 340,000 of them voted for UI. Every single one, you are still between 180,000 and almost 200,000 votes short.
    So if there is any indication that these over half million people exist, let me know and we can look at it again. But unless you can find them there will be no United Ireland. Try as you might they cannot be wished into existence.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Listen to yourself Zeno!!!! Adding up figures and then telling us how people will act who have probably not even made their minds up! Looking at these trends of previous years will hardly be what
    any of these people will be thinking about when they vote. I’d imagine a whole range of motivations, Jobs for example, but the directive line from all parties in England and Ireland will clearly be towards re-unification, unless something really dramatic changes before the vote. Look, I know you desperately want to imagine the Union is somehow guaranteed by all these “talismans” you keep coming back to (“the polls say, the electoral results say…….”) and we could keep this up until doomsday (or re-unification)!!! I’m happy enough myself to wait and watch the steady trickle down of political intent from the two governments, now that the demographics are near enough to what was planned for in the Belfast Agreement as the run in to reunification.

    But I’m still wondering what you are actually doing repeating over and over these same mantras of figures which you must know by now I’ve completely dismissed as essentially just speculation!! I can only repeat, you appear to be trying to convince yourself, as I can see you have no takers on Slugger over the last fortnight, and I think I’ve said pretty much everything myself ,and have even begun to repeat myself (like you are doing). I’ve certainly answered you to exhaustion. This is me signing off on this conversation, as I’ve already heard everything you have to say repeated a number of times, and if this goes on for another two or three days I’ll start composing responses in my sleep myself.

  • Zeno3

    “I’m happy enough myself to wait and watch the steady trickle down of political intent from the two governments,”

    That is delusional stuff Seaan. But let me know when this trickle starts.

    “Listen to yourself Zeno!!!! Adding up figures and then telling us how people will act…”
    followed by this line…
    “now that the demographics are near enough to what was planned for in the Belfast Agreement as the run in to reunification”

    Demographics? What are you doing Seaan (adding them up and telling us how people will act) fondly imagining that all those Catholics will suddenly become nationalists and again with no evidence at all. Do you know any Catholics?
    Never mind, go run along.