Many of us did not expect the seismic change which occurred in March via a groundswell of anger with Arlene over RHI, but if the latest LucidTalk Poll is anything to go by then most of the talk of an imminent united Ireland should be taken with a large dose of salt.
It looks like there are some dynamic shifts in voter sentiment in places like Foyle and South Down, which Sinn Fein have been talking up but the percentages in both places still look like the SDLP is safe.
The UUP are losing some ground to the DUP in South Antrim with a drop to a 60% chance of keeping Danny Kinahan at Westminster (for the record, the same percentage as Gavin Robinson in East Belfast and Alasdair McDonnell in South).
LucidTalk suggests that only eight of the 18 seats are actually in play, and one of those is the much talked-about North Belfast were Nigel Dodds is given a 90% of winning the seat. T
The only seat where they think there’s a likely change is FST, which is SF moving up to 55% chance of taking the seat off the UUP. Of course, like all pollster’s LucidTalk can only model predictions based on past behaviours.
So it will only work until it doesn’t. In the meantime, beware of pundit selling dow
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty