New Westminster election coming on June 8th…

Extraordinary. Looks like we are heading for a new election, but in Westminster not Stormont. Effectively this is a England/Wales election with Scotland as well as Northern Ireland now effectively out of the Westminster picture.

At home, it should have some interesting corollaries too (more of which later from me in tomorrow’s Irish Independent). Sinn Fein’s voter drive will have an early test. Has the DUP had time to change things for it?

  • Ciaran O’Neill

    As soon as the majority of Westminster seats goes nationalist it’ll be called. 2027 is the earliest possibly

  • Karl

    If the Brexit is a hard one, thats their calculation made for them. Then they will become proactive advocates on unification by consent.
    If the Irish govt wants unification, a deal will be done long before a poll is called.

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Will go ahead and name me one ? I can’t think of any with the calibra to run for a Westminster Election ?

  • Ryan A

    Not with McDonnell. Not a chance in hell. I had 2 pals from South Belfast today, both of SDLP stock in their family home seats ask me who the MP was for South Belfast.

    Anonymous McDonnell.

  • Roger

    none of the SF MPs represent anyone in Europe, the Assembly or in the Dail

  • Ben De Hellenbacque

    Do prospective MPs need that model of Vauxhall to run for election?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Any links to these custom plans and how they will operate or be implemented in Ireland ?

  • Ryan A

    If he does he’s toast. Alliance voters unlikely to shift to support him and Green/SF voters even less likely to.

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Only leaves Hanna but not sure if she would prefer Westminster rather than Stormont ? With a young family I would guess she would prefer to stay in Belfast ?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Very good Ben I like it but I am sure the UUP in SB would take a Vauxhall if nothing else just for the name that people know ?

  • Ryan A

    It’s my own understanding Gavin isn’t exactly popular in working class East Belfast since his election. I don’t doubt he’ll win but it could be closer than he thinks. In anycase I can’t see Naomi running and Alliance don’t have anyone with the same level of tenacity to replicate her vote so he should default it.

  • T.E.Lawrence

    I cannot see Naomi running either as Alliance leader it is more important that she remains in Stormont that is where she is really needed

  • Ryan A

    Potentially Gallagher but it would be a huge leap. In any case his twitter feed would suggest he’s readying for battle again, meanwhile I’ve seen SDLP activists chastise Alliance activists for the suggestion they’d prefer a DUP MP over him. Seems like they know they’re up against it.

  • Anon Anon

    My wishful thinking would have an SNP clean sweep followed by a successful indy ref creating conditions that leads to a United Ireland. I’d love it.

    But you’ve got to try and look at things dispassionately. Opposition in Scotland has coalesced around the Tory Party, that’s went all in on tub thumping loyalism. There are a few seats that were close enough for them to pick off. The Lib Dems have come slightly off the rock bottom they’d hit, and have some historic depth in some places. The SNP are still popular, but Nicola has taken one or two hits. Brexit and Independence dominate in a way they didn’t last time.

    The SNP should be comfortable winners, but if they retain their current tally it will be the SNP’s greatest achievement by a distance. There’s just one way you can go from where they are.

  • Anon Anon

    It’s the most likely scenario, but I think Brexit swamps everything else and the Lib Dems have the benefit of the clear position Labour can’t really do.

    I’ve never bought X cycles theory. Politics can turn quickly. If Brexit creates an economic mess, if Scotland goes, who knows what the state of the UK looks like in 5 years?

  • Mark Petticrew

    Whilst the SDLP and the UUP would probably be squeezed in another polarising round of elections, I don’t think Alliance is necessarily destined to suffer a similar fate. If anything, there’s room for Alliance to possibly do some squeezing of its own.

    Through being neither a unionist nor a nationalist party, Alliance is able to operate without having to play to an orange or green gallery as the UUP and SDLP are sometimes compelled to do. Indeed, Alliance works out of its unaligned centrist base, from which it attempts to siphon off votes from the softer end of the unionist and nationalist spectrum.

    We’ve already seen the viability of such a strategy in the unionist arena. For instance, the Alliance Party’s percentage share of the vote rose by 5.6% to 42.8% in the 2015 race for East Belfast’s MP seat when 6-7,000 UUP votes in the constituency were left up for grabs; illustrating the point that unionist unity is not a priority for all unionists, the DUP simply being beyond the pale for some – enter Alliance.

    As for the nationalist side of things, I note the party’s embrace of the concept of an Irish Language Act as well as the translation of its party election literature into Irish in March’s election. To me, such actions are indicative of Long’s intention to seriously enter the nationalist electoral market in a bid to woo the softer end of it around to the Alliance Party.

    Similar to how the UUP has been and continues to be squeezed between the DUP’s flegger unionism and Alliance’s service of shelter for the NI21 types out there, I think the party aims to put the SDLP in a similarly sticky situation on the nationalist battlefield.

  • hgreen

    As expected May’s Tory handlers aren’t going to risk her in a TV debate. Wouldn’t want everyone seeing what a complete lightweight she is.

    I would have thought that if Corbyn was so incompetent it would have been a wonderful opportunity for her.

  • hgreen

    Do you have tonight’s lottery numbers?

  • Granni Trixie

    I don’t know many people in the UUP so I can’t either. Except one who does come to mind is Jeff Dudgeon currently in BCC. But then he might not have the right ‘credentials’ for selectors in the UUP given last 2 times round they zoomed in others to stand.

  • The Living End

    SF may be tempted but I can’t see SDLP agreeing to a pact

  • Granni Trixie

    But can you think of an example when the Torres were useful for them?

  • the keep

    Don’t be too disappointed.

  • the keep

    And bugger it up!

  • the keep

    Which is a bit rich coming from somebody who supports SF.

  • grumpy oul man

    Very good, the only problem with that is I’m not a Shinners.
    But sure I critised unionisn so I’m a shinnerdrone,
    You and Jolly should get together and swap notes.

  • Marcus Orr

    This is a nonsense posting. The reality is that 75% of MP’s in Westminster are pro-remain. Even within the conservative party, well over 50% are pro-remain. Even PM May herself was a soft pro-remain until the referendum told her otherwise last year. Her problem is quite simply that she is trying to cobble together a group of MP’s solidly behind “brexit” but she doesn’t have that much to work with – almost nothing in fact. She knows that her goose is cooked.
    The last thing on her mind at the moment is NI – or even Scotland. Her problem is that she doesn’t even have any sort of solid UK majority which will back her in the negotiation for leave. Hence she calls an election – she has no other choice. Cameron “Dodgy Dave”, who was a strongly pro EU PM, called the referendum last year to bury UKIP once and for all – that was the strategy. He miscalculated, and now the UK is in this mess, in which the people want something that the politicians didn’t.
    Wake up and look around you and don’t assume that everything revolves around NI.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    The tories may be 21 points ahead of Labour, but that does not automatically transfer into seats. Don’t be misled by wishful thinking.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    Aye. Nicola Sturgeon would make mincemeat of her in a debate.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    And that will play right into the hands of the SNP. They can put forward a platform of a definite new independence referendum or even a declaration of independence. The three remaining Labour, tory and LibDem MP’s are liable to be ditched, given that the the Scottish tories are even less popular in Scotland now than when Thatcher was in power, and Labour will be in complete melt-down after the local elections.

    The Empire will die.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    Nope. David Miliband was almost as toxic as Tony Blair. He would have bombed.

  • hgreen

    Tell me more. You seem to have the inside track. How do we plan to stop goods arriving in the U.K. without the appropriate tarrifs being applied and vice versa?

  • AntrimGael

    Disagree totally. The Tory media made fun of Ed, the way he talked, walked, ate etc. He was deliberately portrayed by them as an oaf who couldn’t be trusted in charge of the country. That would have been harder to do with David.

  • BonaparteOCoonassa

    The tory party in Scotland right now are even less popular than they were when Thatcher introduced the Poll Tax. “Tank Girl” Ruthie has just backed the ‘cash for rape’ policy and compounded her error by recommending that the SNP act to ameliorate the effects of this. Labour will be a wipe-out after the local elections. Possibly the one LibDem will keep his MP’s seat, but the other two are on a shoogly peg.

    But time will tell, and it won’t be long now. Interesting times!

  • Roger

    Naturally we were discussing a separate mater: those SF members elected to sit in Commons. They don’t take their seats there and don’t sit in the Dail either.

    Beyond that, the Dail clearly had a lot of say on important matters affecting UKNI like UK decision to leave the EU…

  • In the UK, but who do you vote in NI?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Oh they matter alright if NI wishes to remain in the UK or Not ! If Nationalism surges above the Unionist Vote Base in any election – Then its a Border Poll ?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    UK and ROI will sign up to an Internal Common Market Agreement !

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Like I said KIR I will not knock it until I see how the ROI are going to feed the “Our Wee Begging Bowl” ? Nice to know that all us Nordies are in the same Bowl together ? Keep the Shinners away from such economic papers ? I read that master piece they paid some North American Dud to concoct up and in their own famous words “Waffle – Waffle – Waffle” Maybe that explains Wee Bertie Ahern recent comments ? The Wee Man always had an eye for following where the Dosh is coming from to feed the children ?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Fair Points Mark but where I see the forthcoming problems for Alliance is we are beginning to now run into unofficial border poll elections and both Unionist and Nationalist Voters will be afraid to give their vote to Alliance ! I know of 3 Unionist friends who voted Alliance back in March but the SF Surge scared the hell out of them ! They have returned to Unionism very quickly again ?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da42df27005de38914bd3ec515cb1546d5a97fc8c63cdffbf0e2bbeb85b18448.jpg Ballynafeigh & Ormeau Unionist Association parade past Essex Street – Ormeau Road – Belfast on their way to City Hall Rally 1921 ! I bet you South Belfast UUP Constituency Association wish it had this strength today ? As a matter of fact I think all political parties branches would like such strength today ?

  • hollandia

    Well there was that previous photo of the David and the banana. If the media decide they’re going after you, they’re going after you and that’s really that.

  • Mark Petticrew

    There will certainly be those who feel the need to row in behind the DUP and Sinn Féin in such circumstances, but – not to disregard your 3 friends – I still don’t think this will be to the detriment of the Alliance Party overall.

    Whereas some UUP and SDLP voters might feel encouraged to vote for the larger unionist or nationalist party, there will also be those who – even in the event of another “brutal” election – simply cannot bring themselves to vote for the DUP or Sinn Féin; Alliance, for these latter voters, remaining an attractive option.

  • Reader

    Not really. SF won’t go to Westminster and won’t influence any Brexit votes.
    The posters only really make sense in the case of an Assembly election.

  • nilehenri

    nurse! meds!