RTE Prime Time: UK’s invocation of Article 50 puts Ireland in a double bind…

Last night Prime Time on RTE ran this little piece on Brexit and what it might mean for Ireland (ie, the Republic). The found two former Irish diplomats to take opposing views of how it should be played.

But in truth Ireland is in a tough place, either way. If the British cannot control the outcomes, it’s even more difficult for the Irish government who although they will be inputting into the EU are only one out of 27.

They have strong motivation to see that the deal is not too punative, they also have a duty to make sure that ‘membership has benefits’. It won’t be an easy 18 months ahead (the last six months under A50 is set aside for ratification).

We’ve had 9 months of a phoney war, one which I’ve been self-consciously stepping back from most of the largely idle speculation.  That’s not going to change immediately, but as always we will try to bring you the relevant stuff as and when it happens.

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  • Croiteir

    345,000 Irish citizens live in the UK, less than the number of Briitish citizens living in the ROI. Since you ask.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    North Down, did you actually look at the map? This map eloquently describes the trajectory of the England we are ( as long as the Union holds) being locked into with the exit from the EU. Other than a rather smooth financial interface between the BRICKs and the EU, which will be disrupted at its root by the exit, what has a country like England (steadily plunging into third world poverty everywhere outside of inner London) actually have to offer the financial elite other than some speculation in current (now falling!) house prices in the inner London boroughs?

  • North Down dup

    112,000 British citizens live in the ROI

  • SeaanUiNeill

    If investment did not gravitate to Britain when it could offer financial access to Europe, why should it appear when Britain is just another less affluent version of Norway but without the same interesting deals with the EU to offer? Can you present some proofs of this odd assertion beyond the pipe dreams of the “Victoria and Albert” “nostalgica” sections of the deluded exit supporters? “If wishes were horses” and all that jazz……

  • Enda

    I’ve left, but I very much look forward to the 4 or 5 times a year that I come home to visit my abundant family and friends , and I long for the day that I can move back from this confused, broken Britain to my home, united with its hinterland.

    Although I presume by me leaving you’re referring to ‘my kith and kin’?

    If so, why would we leave? Who is asking us to leave, and what’s more to the point – why should anyone leave?

    A note worthy of adding I feel since you speak of ancestry: On my maternal side I can trace my mothers maiden name, O’Neill, back to Hugh O’Neill Mór of Dunngannon, one of the Gaelic gentry in Ulster, and a major player in the Nine Years War against Elizabethan forces. The particular O’Neill name on my maternal side is Mór. I’m unsure if the name passes through blood relation on the paternal side, or through people who were loyal to that particular house, perhaps if Seaan happens on this post he might have an idea, giving his knowledge and interest in Irish history. It would be interesting to know.

    The Anglo Norman invasion goes back further, so perhaps I had an ancestor who was involved? So what?

    You’ve very clearly identified your reasoning to me. You view the north through a very tribal mindset. I wouldn’t advocate the removal of anyone living in modern day Ireland based on their ancestry – it just makes no sense to continue union with Britain/England.

  • Croiteir

    What reference are you using?

  • Croiteir

    I am sure some vultures will descend to feast on the death of financial London

  • Reader

    Damien Mullan: There’s a higher proportional number…
    If you draw a line on a blank map, do you expect a *net* flow of people to commence just because of it?
    The story is in the net flow, whichever way it happens to be going.

  • Enda

    Ah, the last refuge of a beaten opponent. Resort to typos and accidental grammatical mistakes for some oneupmanship.

  • Enda

    We? Chances are you’d still be in Britain, and the rest of us would be speaking Irish.

  • North Down dup

    Damien started it of with his post, 115,000 work and live in Ireland so there is more Irish living in the UK

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Gavin, I was a little confused about which “mere little country founded by terrorists” as this handle could equally be applied to the UK. Were you unaware that the violent revolutionaries who drove their anointed and legitimate king James II & VII from his three kingdoms and some years later engineered the first 1707 act of Union between England and Scotland were clearly comparable to modern terrorists? They were certainly identified by Fletcher of Saltoun as “a parcel of rogues”……

    But perhaps every county is established historically in controversial circumstances, and attempting to make any absolute moral point about such things is simply misplaced energy.

  • Croiteir

    Started it? are you in playground mode. In your reply to my post you said that “112,000 British citizens live in the ROI”. I ask you once again, and hopefully you can reply without obfuscation and diversion, what reference are you using for that figure?

  • Damien Mullan

    Let me put it this way because apparently the statement I made didn’t seem to register with you. UK nationals make up 2.25% of the population in the Republic, while RoI nationals make up 0.5% of the UK population.

    If you are referring to Irish people in the north who take up residency in the Republic, while still maintaining their UK citizenship, they are UK citizens, especially so, when they have had the option to acquire Irish citizenship when they lived in NI and all the time since. They now live in the Republic but continue to have sole UK citizenship, while having the freedom to take dual Irish citizenship if they wanted. The fact that they haven’t, would be an indication that the vast majority of UK nationals in the Republic are not from the northern nationalist community, but more likely from Great Britain.

    I’m a northern nationalist and like every other family member and friend of mine, we all to a man, have an Irish passport and thus Irish citizenship, I’ve never applied for a British passport and yet I live and work in the north. Under that criteria I would not be considered a UK national if I lived in the Republic, unlike the 115,000 UK nationals in the Republic who have UK citizenship.

  • Damien Mullan

    A UK population of 65 million, of which 336,780 are Irish nationals, making up 0.5% of the UK population. An RoI population of 4.7 million, of which 115,000 are UK nationals, making up 2.25% of the Republic’s population. As for all those protestants who hold Irish passports, which has surged since last June, we are likely to see the number of Irish nationals in the UK jump significantly, a considerable number of these Irish nationals coming from protestant unionist areas of NI.

    “How do you like them apples.”

  • lizmcneill

    Are dual citizens or NI-born Irish citizens counted in these figures?

  • Devil Éire

    P.P.S. It’s ‘P.S.’, not ‘PS’.

  • Damien Mullan

    Not in the survey above, but given brexit going forward, a more in-depth breakdown will be necessary, especially as regards the Good Friday Agreement and it’s treatment post-Brexit.

  • Damien Mullan

    Every Eurozone member is already part of the European Stability Mechanism.

    “Established on 27 September 2012 as a permanent firewall for the eurozone, to safeguard and provide instant access to financial assistance programmes for member states of the eurozone in financial difficulty, with a maximum lending capacity of €500 billion.”

    “It replaces two earlier temporary EU funding programmes: the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). All new bailouts for any eurozone member state will now be covered by ESM.”

    “The ESM commenced its operations after an inaugural meeting on 8 October 2012. The first 40% of the paid-in capital was transferred by all ESM member states ahead of a treaty regulated deadline of 12 October 2012. ESM member states can apply for a bailout if they are in financial difficulty or their financial sector is a stability threat in need of recapitalization.”

    “As of April 2013, the ESM has approved two Financial Assistance Facility Agreement (FAFA) programmes, with up till €100bn earmarked for recapitalization of Spanish Banks, and €9bn in disbursements for Cyprus for a sovereign state bailout programme. The Cyprus bank recapitalization was funded by converting bank deposits into equity.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Are you a betting man, ND? My own bet would be on Ireland in five years time organising food parcels for the destructive famines across an economically collapsed Britain, which even with open access to Europe has currently managed to boast nine of the ten poorest regions in northern Europe, (including our own). The first question you should really ask yourself is, what has a Britain outside of Europe actually got to offer the world in order to seduce the big power blocks into rushing to offer it preferential trade terms, when most of its “trade” recently has been as a liminal financial portal to the European market? Britain as the workshop of the world is long dead, and what else (other than as an open door to European trade) are we actually going to sell to a world which can manufacture virtually all its needs far more cheaply than Britian ever can? Unrealistic dreams of unlikely future wealth butter no bread.

  • SouthernMan

    ND, I’m very proud that our little state is now one of the most wealthy in Europe and can contribute to help our friends in Europe. Many of us here in the South would like to extend that financial help to the people (all) of the six counties. We can help you stand up on your own, so you too can feel that same pride!

  • Jimmyz

    Why did you write PPS when you have no body to your silly post ?

    You just pwned yourself :/

  • Devil Éire

    Why did you write PPS…

    I didn’t, I wrote ‘P.P.S.’ (as an ironic addendum to yours). It’s an abbreviation so in order to punctuate it properly, you need to add the period after each letter.

    I’m surprised you think my post was silly since you appear to be a stickler for punctuation.

  • Reader

    1729: UK can’t impose tariffs against food without producing domestic inflation on top of depreciation, and additional costs with customs.
    There are already UK tariffs (well, actually EU tariffs) on food imports from outside the EU. So getting rid of those will help with inflation, won’t it?

  • 1729torus

    WTO non discrimination rules means it has to apply the same tariff to all food producers, so they’d have to offer the low tariff to Ireland.

  • Reader

    1729: WTO non discrimination rules means it has to apply the same tariff to all food producers, so they’d have to offer the low tariff to Ireland.
    So, cheap beef from Ireland *and* Argentina. Instead of just Ireland. I wonder which is cheaper? However, I expect the EU will continue to tax its citizens to subsidise exports. It will be nice to benefit from the subsidy without paying for it.
    Although – doesn’t the WTO permit tariff barriers against subsidised products? Not that we would turn our nose up at subsidised beef.

  • 1729torus

    My original comment was aimed at the idea of Ireland being locked out entirely. Irish farmers won’t have to compete with British ones in the EU either.

    There would still be a market for high quality beef produced to strict standards, stories like Brazil will haunt even British farms if there’s a bonfire of regulations.

  • John Collins

    Jimmy
    During the troubles there were more Jews (Briscoe,Taylor and Shatter) elected to Fail Eireann than Sinn Feiners. Just shows the ‘level of support’ violent republicans had in the South then.

  • John Collins

    As shown above your ‘widespread support’ for violent republicans in the South narrative is just fake news.

  • Reader

    Damien Mullan: I’m a northern nationalist and like every other family member and friend of mine, we all to a man, have an Irish passport and thus Irish citizenship, I’ve never applied for a British passport and yet I live and work in the north.
    So, that would make you one of “336,780 Irish nationals in the UK”. I had assumed there would be many more than that.
    And are you saying you have no unionist friends?
    But that’s by-the-by. You were emphasising “Proportional number of X Nationals in Y state.” My point was that driving forces are measured by net flow.

  • Reader

    Damien Mullan: As for all those protestants who hold Irish passports, which has surged since last June, we are likely to see the number of Irish nationals in the UK jump significantly, a considerable number of these Irish nationals coming from protestant unionist areas of NI.
    The number of Irish nationals in the UK jumped when the passports were issued. It won’t change when the holders move from one part of the UK to another.

  • Jimmyz

    Then you will have no objection into an independent international inquiry into Charles Haughy and gun running for starters ?

    Are you claiming there was no collusion between the Irish Government and the Catholic death squads of the IRA ?

  • John Collins

    JImmy
    1 there was an Arms Trial in relation to Haughey and the suspected importation of arms. He was acquitted – end of story
    2 If this collusion between the Irish Government and Catholic deaths squads ever took place, surely the much vaunted British Intelligence Services would have exposed it

  • Oggins

    Missed placed energy, like it a lot. Must use that one Seaan if you don’t mind!

  • Jimmyz

    1) The trial was a whitewash, only an International independent Inquiry would be acceptable
    2) You din’t answer my question.

  • Damien Mullan

    Indeed I do have unionist friends, very close too, some are family members as well, but the vast majority of my family members and friends are nationalists which would be natural enough living on the west bank of the Foyle.

    I can only assume that some northern nationalists have dual citizenship, there are a few people I know who fall into this category, my cousin’s family in Luton for instance, these would likely influence the figures.

    The net flow is only something you can measure over time, if you are interested in the historical net flows I’d advise you look at the census information for both countries.

  • Damien Mullan

    I didn’t suggest that Irish nationals moving within the UK would alter Irish national numbers in the UK, that would be an absurd suggestion.

    What I am suggesting is that the historical trend of Irish nationalists in the northern applying for Irish citizenship, is now being augmented by those from protestant unionists backgrounds acquiring Irish citizenship too. The historical trend is being additionally boosted.

  • John Collins

    If there is a full international inquiry into the Monaghan/Dublin bombings with the British giving full access to their files on those events then I have absolutely no objection to all your concerns re the ROI role in these matters coming under similar scrutiny.
    Jimmy, I believe all wrong doing, on all sides, should be exposed.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    You’re franchised to use it as much as you need, Oggins. No fee due.