Whilst I think this poll needs to be treated as an outlier, to me the greatest significance is not the FF bounce so much as the apparent collapse in the Independent vote, not least because people have seen them floundering in government as much as party men and women.
Headline figures are:
FF 32% (+3); FG 21% (-2); SF 19% (+2); Independents 8% (-7); Lab 6% (+1); Independent Alliance 5% (+2); AAA/PBP 3% (-2); Soc Dems 2% (+1); Green Party 2% (-1); Workers’ Party 1% (+1)
It’s worth noting these dramatic changes are not yet reflected elsewhere, and that any election is likely to harden matters in different ways. Margin of error is 3.2%, so the halving of support for independents is hard to ignore as the most dynamic factor here. If borne out it looks like the opposition parties are likely beneficiaries.
No longer any sign of that political peloton that was such a feature of the last government’s term after the collapse of popular support for Irish Labour.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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